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1. The Pushback Against Populism: Running on “Radical Love” in Turkey

Author:
F. Michael Wuthrich and David Ingleby
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Democracy
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
Drawing from the 2019 mayoral elections in Turkey, this paper highlights a path that opposition parties might take to defuse polarized environments and avoid playing into the political traps set by populists in power. The particular type of moral and amplified polarization that accompanies populism’s essential “thin” ideology builds a barrier between a populist’s supporters and the opposition. Yet the CHP opposition in Turkey has recently won notable victories with its new campaign approach of “radical love,” which counteracts populism’s polarizing logic and has exposed Erdoğan’s weakness.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Populism, and Authority
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Asia

2. Housing and Voting in Germany Multi-Level Evidence for the Association between House Prices and Housing Tenure and Party Outcomes, 1980–2017

Author:
Paul Beckman, Barbara Fulda, and Sebastian Kohl
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
Traditional predictors of election outcomes in Germany are increasingly losing their explana- tory power. Rather than new cultural divides, this paper introduces the idea of housing cleav- ages, i.e., homeownership versus tenancy and high-price versus low-price areas, drawing on macro data for electoral districts and urban neighborhoods from the last three elections (2009– 2017) in combination with Immoscout24 ad price data and microdata from the ALLBUS sur- vey (1980–2016). Although, due to its low homeownership rate and conservative house price development, Germany represents a least-likely case for housing to be of importance, we find housing effects beyond traditional predictors. Generally, we find that high house prices, house price increases, and homeownership are positively associated with voting for center-right par- ties and voter turnout, while social tenancy is associated with votes for the left, but these effects weaken over time due to embourgeoisement effects. Beyond this expected left-right distinction between tenants and wealthier homeowners, we also find outliers along two other dimensions. First, there are center-periphery effects that housing can better capture than simple geographical divisions; second, house prices contain a populist dimension, for example when skyrocketing rents increase votes for the urban left or regions where house prices lag behind benefit the AfD. The paper argues against the more causal self-interest and socialization theories of the influence of housing on voting and instead suggests considering housing as an important socioeconomic proxy to explain political outcomes.
Topic:
Elections, Voting, Homeownership, and Housing
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and Central Europe

3. Lessons from Belarus: How the EU can support clean elections in Moldova and Georgia

Author:
Andrew Wilson
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council On Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The European Union was largely on the sidelines when the Belarusian regime rigged the 2020 presidential election, but upcoming votes in Georgia and Moldova pose a different challenge. The EU should make use of its significant leverage in Georgia and Moldova to counter their ruling parties’ extensive repertoire of electoral dirty tricks. The bloc will need to account for the obstacles created by the coronavirus crisis, not least the difficulty of conducting large-scale monitoring missions. The EU will also need to adjust to the ruling parties’ use of pandemic assistance for political gain, and their efforts to prevent citizens abroad from voting.
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, Elections, European Union, and Coronavirus
Political Geography:
Europe, Moldova, Georgia, and Belarus

4. US Elections - The optimistic worst-case scenario

Author:
Christian Kvorning Lassen
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Christian Kvorning Lassen, Deputy Director of the EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy, comments on the US presidential election. The US elections will come down to the wire, and will be determined by mail-in votes. While this was fully expected during the COVID-19 pandemic, it was also the worst-case scenario given Trump’s persistent attempts to delegitimize mail-in votes, despite lack of clear evidence of their fraudulence. Much like 2016, the key battleground states are Pennsylvania (20 EC votes), Michigan (16) and Wisconsin (10), with mail-in votes deciding their outcome. As of this writing, Pennsylvania has counted 700.000 out of 2.5 million mail-in votes, of which Biden has won 71.7% of them to Trump’s 21.3%. Michigan has counted 425.000 out of 2.48 million, with Biden winning 65% to Trump’s 33%. Finally, Wisconsin still needs to count 1.3 million mail-in votes. Should the trend of Biden winning 2/3 of all mail-in votes, Biden will be a clear election winner, giving the Biden camp cause for optimism.
Topic:
Elections, Donald Trump, Pandemic, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

5. Belarus without Lukashenko: How it became a realistic scenario

Author:
Arkady Moshes and Ryhor Nizhnikau
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Alexander Lukashenko’s “victory” in the election cannot bridge the gap between the president and the modern part of Belarusian society. Turbulent times may lie ahead for Belarus. This will require the West to revise its current approach and invest more in supporting forces that want reforms and the country’s Europeanization.
Topic:
Reform, Elections, Europeanization, and Transition
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Belarus

6. Towards the 2021 Duma election: The Russian opposition needs strong leaders

Author:
Jussi Lassila
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Peopleʼs grievances were not reflected in Russia’s regional elections this year. The Kremlin is reaping the benefits of increasingly blatant electoral fraud and citizensʼ political apathy.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Elections, Rigged Elections, and Opposition
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Eastern Europe

7. Political attitudes at a time of flux

Author:
Katy Hayward and Ben Rosher
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
2019 was a year of tremendous political significance in Northern Ireland in terms of what failed to happen. On-off talks between the DUP and Sinn Féin went nowhere and the Assembly Chamber in Stormont remained empty for a third year. Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement failed to be passed by the House of Commons and so the UK remained an EU member-state into the new year. This Research Update by Katy Hayward and Ben Rosher highlights public attitudes relevant to the political challenges in Northern Ireland, based on data from the 2019 Northern Ireland Life and Times (NILT) survey.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Northern Ireland

8. The US election 2020 and transatlantic relations

Author:
Gideon Rachman, Jeremy Shapiro, Kate McNamara, and Anand Menon
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
At this Isolation Insight webinar, speakers discusses the US election and what the result might mean for transatlantic relations. Speakers : Gideon Rachman, Chief Foreign Affairs Commentator, Financial Times; Jeremy Shapiro, Research Director, European Council on Foreign Relations; Kate McNamara, Professor of Government and Foreign Service, Georgetown University; Chair: Anand Menon, Director, UK in a Changing Europe
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Brexit, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, North America, and United States of America

9. Labour: a year after the election

Author:
Bell Ribeiro-Addy, Lucy Powell, John Curtice, Sienna Rodgers, and Anand Menon
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
The outcome of the 2019 general election was the worst in the Labour Party’s history. One year on from the vote the UK in a Changing Europe and LabourList are putting on an event looking at how the party has changed over the last 12 months and what it needs to do to win in 2024. Speakers are: Bell Ribeiro-Addy, MP for Streatham, Labour Party; Lucy Powell, Shadow Minister for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy and MP for Manchester Central, Labour Party; Sir John Curtice, Senior Fellow, UK in a Changing Europe; Sienna Rodgers, Editor, LabourList; Chair: Anand Menon, Director, UK in a Changing Europe
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Brexit, Political Parties, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

10. Disenfranchising Democracy: Constructing the Electorate in the United States, the United Kingdom, and France, David A. Bateman

Author:
Dawn Langan Teele
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Political Science Quarterly
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
David A. Bateman’s new book explores nearly all of the crucial questions concerning democracy and inclusion that we are grappling with today, from the very broad—how do the ways in which we think about the origins of our nation inform the welcoming or hostile attitudes we assume in relation to immigrants and outsiders?—to the very narrow—do requirements that voters present physical documents verifying their identity reduce the electoral participation of minority groups? In answering these questions, Bateman offers a detailed portrait of the political machinations that result in electoral reforms, describing elites’ efforts to blur lines between expediency and morality and the circumstances that led conservative parties (the same that today seek to abolish laws that give special status to protected classes of people) to work hard to establish and maintain legal provisions that awarded different rights to different groups. Fundamentally, Bateman explains why steps toward inclusive democratic institutions are often accompanied by steps back, which leave us uncertain of our accomplishments and anxious about our future. Remarkably, though, Disenfranchising Democracy considers these familiar dynamics and dilemmas not in the contemporary world but in the rather distant past, drawing on a wealth of archival sources to analyze the timing of electoral reforms, the emergence and ossification of party- based patterns of support for franchise reform, and the political ideas of would-be reformers and resisters in three of the world’s first semidemocratic countries: the United States, the United Kingdom, and France.
Topic:
History, Elections, Democracy, Book Review, and Political Science
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, France, North America, and United States of America