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81. Montenegro after the General Elections: A New Chapter in Transition or Preservation of Status Quo?

Author:
Krševan Antun Dujmović
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
The general elections held in Montenegro on 30 August 2020 has once again drawn the attention of the Western Balkans to the smallest, measured by population, among seven nations that emerged after the breakup of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. This attention is due to a number of factors. Back in May of 2018 Montenegro has opened the last of the thirty-three chapters in the negotiation process with the European Union, making it a harbinger among Western Balkans nations on the path to Euro-Atlantic integrations, especially as the country had joined the North Atlantic Alliance in June 2017. Other countries in the region linger behind Montenegro – Albania and North Macedonia, both NATO members, are still waiting for the opening of the negotiations with the EU. Serbia has no intention to join NATO, and in spite of EU negotiations and ambitions, sees itself in balance between the West on one side, and Russia and China on the other. Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina are far from NATO membership and have merely the status of potential candidates for EU membership. This is why all eyes of the region and of the advocates of continuation of EU enragement policy are on Montenegro. The second factor are strong historical ties of this country on the Adriatic coast with its northern neighbor Serbia. Serbian minority makes up to one third of Montenegro’s population, and the Serbian Orthodox Church (SPC- Srpska Pravoslavna Crkva) plays a vital role in Montenegrin society, as this country does not have its own autocephalous Church recognized by other Orthodox Churches in Eastern Christendom. This gives Serbia and the SPC a significant clout within borders of its southern neighbor. The third factor is the involvement of global players in this country. The United Sates has advocated strongly to include Montenegro in NATO in order to stretch the line of NATO’s southern flank in the Northern Mediterranean from the Iberian Peninsula to the west to Greece and Turkey in the east. On the other hand, Montenegro’s authorities accused Russia of meddling in the general elections held in October 2016 when the alleged coup d’état occurred on the election day. Many feared a similar scenario on the eve of 30 August 2020 election, fathoming the outbreak of riots and violence that could ignite the powder keg in the Balkans. Although none of these happened, Montenegro is not ceasing to be the subject of the geopolitical chessboard. Considering these factors, the attention of neighbors to the events in this Balkan country is understandable. The unfolding situation after the elections in which the government of Montenegro is backed by a very thin majority in the Parliament (Skupština Crne Gore) and with no clear vision nor strategy for further political and economic development of the country, is only fueling the wariness of its neighbors and of Brussels about Montenegro as a success story.
Topic:
NATO, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Elections, European Union, and Transition
Political Geography:
Europe, Balkans, and Montenegro

82. Local David Versus Global Goliath: Populist Parties and the Decline of Progressive Politics in Italy

Author:
Matteo Cavallaro
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the role of local spending, particularly on social welfare, and local inequality as factors in the Italian political crisis following the adoption in 2011 of more radical national austerity measures. We employ two different methods. First, we develop an original database of municipal budgets. There we show that even the lowest level of social welfare spending, that offered by Italian municipalities, though also hit by austerity, was still able to moderate this national shock. We test three operationalizations of local spending: aggregate current expenditures, aggregate current expenditures on social services, and current expenditures disaggregated by function. We show that municipal current expenditures, particularly on social spending, significantly affected the post-2011 share of votes for the progressive coalition. The results also show that social spending, especially on education, significantly moderated the combined effect of national austerity and the economic crisis on voting for populist radical right parties, while no significant results appeared for populist parties in general. Local inequality appears to significantly enhance vote shares of populist radical right parties and populist parties in general. We caution that, although significant, the effect is not strong: that local policy and economic conditions can moderate national shocks but cannot reverse them. The second analysis relies on survey data to ascertain the individual-level mechanisms behind the role of local welfare. The paper argues that local economic inputs influence voters’ position on non-economic issues. Our results, however, do not identify any significant individual-level channel of transmission, be it cultural or economic.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Inequality, Populism, and Austerity
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

83. Amidst Disinformation and Geopolitical Rivalry, Bulgaria Returns to the Polls July 11th

Author:
Kjell Engelbrekt
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Council on International Policy (CIP)
Abstract:
In the opinion surveys leading up to the elections, the same three biggest parties as in April enjoy support somewhere between 16 and 23 percent each, with another three-four trailing far behind and one hovering just at the 4 percent threshold. Few observers believe that the outcome will differ much from that produced on April 4th, which distributed 240 parliamentary seats among six parties. Ostensibly, the main problem in current Bulgarian politics arises from the unnecessarily sharp disagreements and mutual recriminations among the leaderships of the three main parties competing for power, aggravated during electoral campaigns. When the results were in, each of the three parties decided to reject cooperation with the other two and thereby precluded the establishment of a government tolerated by the parliamentary majority. The two top contenders are Boyko Borisov’s center-right GERB party, which has ruled the country almost uninterruptedly since it garnered 40 per cent of the popular vote in mid-2009, and There Is Such a People (Ima takav narod or ITN), run by TV personality Slavi Trifonov. The electoral campaigns ahead of either poll have largely revolved around Trifonov’s sweeping accusations of corruption directed at Borisov and his party, with the ongoing pandemic and the country’s weak economic performance featuring as issues more in the periphery. The corruption charges were also directed at the third frontrunner, the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) with roots in the old communist elite. After Trifonov’s ITN party had reiterated that it would under no circumstances work with the BSP, two of the smaller parties with anti-corruption platforms similarly refused even initial consultations. From that point on the BSP was out of options as well. At a deeper level Bulgaria’s troubles stem from being a relatively small country with the lowest GDP per capita in the European Union (EU), frequently exposed to cross-pressures from Brussels, Moscow, Ankara, Washington DC and Berlin. This especially applies to the energy sector, where the country’s geographic location in the corner of southeastern Europe makes it a significant player. While the EU and NATO have repeatedly urged Sofia to align with collective approaches designed to reduce the continent’s reliance on individual providers, Russian energy corporations have skillfully utilized regional relationships and ties to Bulgaria’s political class to assertively negotiate terms that above all are favorable to Moscow. Germany, a sponsor of the Nord Stream I-II pipelines, has not been in a position to object.
Topic:
Corruption, Elections, Leadership, Disinformation, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
Europe and Bulgaria

84. Russian Duma Election 2021: Kremlin Supremacy Achieved Through Unprecedented Pressure and Fraud

Author:
Jussi Lassila
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Maintaining the ruling party’s overwhelming majority was an obsession for the Kremlin, regardless of the growing dissatisfaction. The election result, achieved through blatant fraud, further undermines the Kremlin’s connection with citizens.
Topic:
Corruption, Governance, Authoritarianism, Elections, Democracy, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

85. Beyond Merkelism: What Europeans expect of post-election Germany

Author:
Piotr Buras and Jana Puglierin
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
A new poll conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations shows that EU citizens view Germany as a trustworthy, pro-European power. Angela Merkel’s approach of searching for compromises between competing interests is a major source of Berlin’s positive image. Pluralities in all countries polled would support her in a hypothetical election for president of Europe if her opponent was Emmanuel Macron. Merkel’s rule has reduced neighbours’ fear of German dominance. Most Europeans do not believe a German heading the European Commission is a bad thing. And significant numbers trust Berlin to lead the EU, especially on financial and economic issues and democracy and the rule of law. Paradoxically, to fulfil many Europeans’ expectations, Berlin will need to revise the principles of Merkelism that created this trust. Germany will need to do this to successfully lead the EU in tackling the two greatest threats facing it: a weakening of the rule of law inside the EU, and a failure on the part of Europe to defend its interests in the world.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Domestic Politics, and Polls
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

86. Back to democracy: Europe, Hamas, and the Palestinian elections

Author:
Hugh Lovatt
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Palestinian elections are on track to take place during the coming months – for the first time in over a decade. The EU and the US have a decisive role to play in ensuring the electoral process succeeds. In doing so, they can support Palestinian political renewal and improve prospects for a sustainable peace agreement with Israel. Within Hamas, moderates have gambled on elections. The movement – along with Fatah – is looking for new avenues for political engagement given the increasingly inauspicious regional and international context. The EU and the US must: commit to respecting the outcome of the Palestinian elections; persuade Israel to support a free, fair, and inclusive process; and pursue a constructive relationship with any new government that pledges respect for democracy, human rights, and international law.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Law, Authoritarianism, Elections, Democracy, and Hamas
Political Geography:
Europe, Israel, and Palestine

87. Review of the Czech EU Policy in 2020/2021

Author:
Vít Havelka, Katerina Davidova, and Danielle Piatkiewicz
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
The institutional year 2020/2021 was strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, which not only took over most of the agenda, but also influenced the functioning of the EU institutions as such. The European Council and COREPER became the most significant players, as the regular Council meetings were predominantly held online. This constellation had an impact on the EU policy ownership of the Czech ministers, who were simultaneously forced to deal with the deteriorating domestic situation and upcoming elections.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, European Union, Domestic Policy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Czech Republic

88. Turkey in Germany’s 2021 Elections: Political party manifestos and their views on Turkey

Author:
Ronald Meinardus
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Rarely has an election outcome in Germany been as uncertain as it is today. Berlin’s future policy towards Ankara, and not at least the related refugee issues, especially following the recent developments in Afghanistan, will be one of the topics future coalition partners will need to agree on. The election manifestos of the political parties provide an important source for analyzing the political views of the political actors. All parties criticize the dire situation of human rights and the rule of law in today’s Turkey. While CDU/CSU and the far-right AfD reject a Turkish membership in clear terms, the other parties are less outspoken in this point. Potentially the most consequential divergence as reflected in the electoral programs relates to Germany’s arms export policy and the EU Refugee Agreement of 2016. Unlike the other parties, both the Greens and “Die Linke” want to terminate the migration deal as well as the export of German arms to Turkey.
Topic:
Migration, Politics, Elections, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Germany, and Mediterranean

89. Digital Marketing of Political Parties in Turkey

Author:
Ramazan Aslan
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
The only legitimate way for the political parties to get power in democratic countries is to achieve victory in the elections. In order to get more votes than the rival parties and thus win the election, political parties must offer political products that will meet the needs of the voters. In terms of determining the right political products, political parties need to be in constant communication and interaction with the voters to understand the needs of the voters. With the developing technology, new communication channels have emerged. Digital marketing channels, which are widely used mainly in marketing, attracted the attention of political parties over time and started to be used to communicate with their voters. Digital marketing channels, used extensively, present a significant opportunity for political parties to reach current and potential voters. In this study, digital marketing channels used by all political parties represented in the Turkish Grand National Assembly will be examined by the content analysis method. Thus, the usage rates of digital marketing in the political field will be comparatively revealed.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Elections, Digital Economy, Digital Culture, Digitization, and Party System
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Asia

90. When The Stakes Are High: Campaign Messages in Hungary

Author:
Zsofia Bocskay
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
While municipal elections are of less importance than national ones, the study of local election communication shows that there are cases when political actors frame them as first-order elections. In 2019, the opposition managed to challenge the ruling Fidesz-KDNP alliance in Hungary, and gained mayoral offices in strategically important places. In the campaign, PM Viktor Orbán’s party stressed the importance of local elections, utilizing a complex conspiracy theory. They argued that the stakes were high because Hungary’s sovereignty was at risk. In this article, I evaluate the findings of a content analysis conducted on 86 speeches that were performed as part of the ruling party’s election campaign with a special focus on topics and character remarks.
Topic:
Elections, Local, Voting, and Campaigning
Political Geography:
Europe and Hungary