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201. Britain and the European Union: Lessons from History

Publication Date:
03-2016
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
Over the last four decades, membership of the European Union has touched almost every area of national life. It affects how we trade, the laws by which we are governed, where we go on holiday and who is entitled to live here. Its influence has been felt across British politics, from the Northern Ireland peace process to the struggle for equal pay. The ‘European question’ divided the Labour Party in the 1970s, split the Conservative Party in the 1990s, and drove the two most successful insurgent parties of modern times: the Social Democratic Party and the United Kingdom Independence Party. This summer, the UK will hold only the third nationwide referendum in its history, on whether to remain in the EU or to seek a new position outside.
Topic:
Politics and Elections
Political Geography:
Britain, Europe, and Northern Ireland

202. The Dispatch (Winter 2016)

Author:
David J. Bercuson, Frédérick Gagnon, Randolph Mank, Colin Robertson, Robert Huebert, Hugh Stephens, Gary Soroka, Hugh Segal, Daryl Copeland, David Perry, and Robert Muggah
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Global Exchange
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
The Dispatch (later called The Global Exchange) is the Canadian Global Affairs Institute’s quarterly magazine featuring topical articles written by our fellows and other contributing experts. Each issue contains approximately a dozen articles exploring political and strategic challenges in international affairs and Canadian foreign and defence policy. This Winter 2016 issue includes articles on the election of Donald Trump, energy policy, Canadian defense capability, and more.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, Energy Policy, Elections, Trans-Pacific Partnership, Trade, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Russia, Japan, Europe, Canada, North America, Arctic, and United States of America

203. United States After the Presidential Election 2016: Continuation or Abandonment of Obama’s Foreign Policy

Author:
Krševan Antun Dujmović
Publication Date:
08-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
With the Presidential Elections coming closer, the global attention is shifting more and more to the United States. During the terms of George W. Bush, especially during his second tenure, the image of the US as an untouchable superpower was somewhat mitigated. In 2001 the US witnessed the largest attack on its territory since Pearl Harbor and military interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq took a heavy toll in human lives and material and �inancial expanses. Upon this, the campaign in Iraq had no legal foundation, and that caused a rift with the European allies, especially with two big continental powers Germany and France, and the consequences are still largely felt to date. The legitimacy and the credibility of the US as the global strong leader was further watered down with the �inancial crunch originating on Wall Street, spilling over to the rest of the world, especially the European Union (EU). At the moment when American image and credibility hit the ground, the White House saw a new president Barack Obama, the �irst African American to sit in the Oval Of�ice. In the internal policy, Obama’s two terms saw the American economy gaining an undisputed strength. Unemployment rate and de�icit were cut in half, exports and the dollar were on the hike, just like the GDP growth and the real estate market. Obama’s foreign policy showed to be much more diplomatic and arguably more ef�icient than that of the Bush administration.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Elections, and Europe Union
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Middle East, North America, Washington, and D.C.

204. General Election in Montenegro: A step closer to Euro-Atlantic integration?

Author:
Krševan Antun Dujmović
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
Montenegro has yet again drawn the attention of the European public during the general election on 16 October. On election day many irregularities were recorded and several incidents occurred, including an alleged coup attempt, as the big question loomed over the country: Is Montenegro still going to be ruled by the same man, the incumbent Prime Minister Milo Đukanović who has been in power for over a quarter of a century, as president and Prime Minister during four terms, with just two short periods of ‘retirement’ when he actually pulled strings behind people loyal to him? Montenegrin opposition was quite adamant in their demand that Đukanović has to leave the political scene of Montenegro after twenty-�ive years of almost undisputed rule. The four major opposition parties in Montenegro, the Democratic Front (DF – Demokratski Front), the Key Coalition (Ključ), the Democratic Montenegro (DCG – Demokratska Crna Gora) and the Social Democratic Party of Montenegro (SDP – Socijaldemokratska Partija Crne Gore), have all decided that they would not make coalition agreements with the Democratic Party of Socialists of Montenegro (DPS – Demokratska Partija Socijalista Crne Gore) presided over by Milo Đukanović and help him by any means to form a government. The DPS managed to win 41% of the votes on 16 October and consequently 36 seats in the 81 seat Parliament, and they needed �ive more mandates to form the government. At its �irst session after the election Montenegro’s Parliament was inaugurated on 7 November, just days after Milo Đukanović unexpectedly stepped down as the DPS’s candidate for the new Prime Minister, leaving the place to Duško Marković, the party’s Vice President and Deputy Prime Minister of Montenegro. Montenegro is expected to join NATO next year as the rati�ication process should end by spring 2017, and the country has so far opened 24 chapters in negotiations to access the European Union, but it is still not clear whether this process would be tempered by the current unstable political situation.
Topic:
Elections and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Europe, Balkans, and Montenegro

205. Choosing Your Battles Wisely? Activist Preferences, Party Size and Issue Selection

Author:
Chitralekha Basu
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
This paper seeks to explain why parties emphasize particular positional issues in their campaigns – a hitherto understudied topic. I find that the policy preferences of activists are an important influence on party platforms, and therefore, party emphasis decisions on positional issues. However, my analyses reveal party size to be a more important determinant of parties’ emphasis strategies than whether a party is ‘mainstream’ or ‘niche’. Large mainstream parties—termed ‘major parties’—de-emphasize issues on which their activists are relatively extreme, whereas both small mainstream and small niche parties—‘minor parties’—emphasize issues on which their activists are relatively extreme. Further, large niche parties appear to behave more like large mainstream parties than small niche parties in this respect. Using a variety of empirical approaches, I show that these findings can be explained as the consequence of vote-maximizing choices made by parties responding to different electorates. Conversely, they cannot easily be explained by strategic error or dogmatism on the part of some parties, or by the selection of activists into parties. These patterns hold across Western and Eastern Europe, suggesting that, in a variety of information environments, the appearance of policy moderation may be viewed as advantageous by major parties, and as potentially disadvantageous by minor parties.
Topic:
Elections, Political Parties, and Activism
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Western Europe

206. Turkey's Islamists: From Power-Sharing to Political Incumbency

Author:
Bell Ozkan
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
ARI Movement
Abstract:
The complex relationship between political Islam and the Turkish state – from political exclusion in the early Republican era, to power-sharing in the post-World War II multi-party era, to political incumbency in the 2000s – was crowned by AKP’s landslide electoral victory in 2002. The author debunks two myths regarding this relationship: first, that Kemalism enjoyed a monopoly of political power for decades and second, that Islamists achieved victory in 2002 after being the regime’s sole opposition. According to the author, Turkey’s failed Middle East policy can be attributed to AKP’s misconception that its Islamic counterparts would achieve power after the Arab uprisings just as they had done in Turkey in 2002.
Topic:
Religion, Elections, Democracy, Domestic Politics, and Secularism
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Asia

207. Where did all the Spartans Go?

Author:
Felix Imonti
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Well, the Greeks voted on June 17th, but I am confused. What did the voters say? Before the election, polls revealed that 80 percent of the people supported membership in the European Union and the continued use of the Euro. When they voted, those same people cast 52 percent of their votes for parties opposed to the adoption of the austerity program that Greeks feel is being imposed upon them by the more powerful members of the EU—which translates into Germany. Accepting the economic program is an essential agreement in order to remain in the Eurozone. The New Democracy Party garnered the largest vote with nearly 30 percent. The leader of the conservative party, Antonis Samaras, pledged to keep Greece in the Eurozone and to negotiate modifications to the austerity package that Greece must accept in order to receive an additional 240 billion Euros. Somehow, people find the promises of Antonis Samaras unreliable. When the New Democracy Party was in opposition against the socialist PASOK Party—which had accepted the program imposed upon Greece—he rejected it. His reversal leaves his position in doubt among Greeks and the politicians outside with whom he has to negotiate. In short, is he for the austerity package or against it?
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Domestic Politics, and Eurozone
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

208. The Return of Old Putin and the New Future of Russia

Author:
Beom-Shik Shin
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Vladimir Putin who cautiously entered the Kremlin upon his inauguration in March 2000 is now returning to the presidential office with more craft and determination this May 2012. Going by the announcements of Russia’s Central Election Commission (CEC), Putin received 63.75% of the votes, defeating Gennady Zyuganov (17.19%), Mikhail Prokhorov (7.82%), Vladimir Zhirinovsky (6.23%), Sergey Mironov (3.85%) and others to become the next president of the Russian Federation. It had been predicted that Putin would either win by a narrow margin after the second round of voting receiving around 40% of the votes, or he would have had an easy victory receiving around 50% of the votes. His victory though was an overwhelming one, with nearly 64% of the votes. There were controversies nevertheless regarding election fraud. The international election monitoring team dispatched by Organization for Security and Co-Operation in Europe (OSCE) raised concerns over a number of issues such as questions over the neutrality of Vladimir Churov, the chair of CEC and restrictive media regulations for opposition candidates. Despite these concerns, it would be virtually impossible for opposition candidates to overturn the results. In expectation of such controversies, the Russian government made efforts to minimize criticism of election fraud by installing webcams in ballot boxes. However, rectifying the lack of a fair judgment system should be regarded as a task of utmost urgency if Russia’s election system is to develop. Still, the disputes over election fraud will go on for some time as will the street demonstrations against Putin that appeared after his victory.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Elections, Leadership, and Rigged Elections
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

209. Ukrainian Parliamentarianism, Parliament and 2012 Rada Elections

Author:
Valeriya Klymenko
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
F ormation of parliamentarism in Ukraine has been a long and complex process reflecting all the difficulties of structuring the Ukrainian society, imperfect state and party building, and improper political and legal culture of national politics. Now, the country goes through an electoral campaign for the seventh Parliament. However, there are no grounds to speak of established principles and correspondence of the national parliamentarism to democratic standards, a stable legislative framework for parliamentary elections and constitutional status, powers and functions of parliament. Almost every election campaign has taken place under a new law, which changes not only the procedures but also the electoral system; the Parliament’s role and place in the national system of state governance also has been changing. The latest change occurred as the result of reinstatement of Ukraine’s Constitution in the wording of 1996 in 2010. The Verkhovna Rada of the 6th convocation gave consent to that act, having initiated dangerous trends of gradual weakening of the constitutional status of the Ukrainian Parliament, narrowing its powers, and enhancing its accountability to the President. At the same time, there have been trends toward declining quality of legislative process, and deteriorating performance of its representative, statuary and supervisory functions by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. All this has led to a critically low level of public support for the parliamentary activity, which, according to the polls, barely exceeded 4% last year. Such a situation may discredit in the eyes of the Ukrainian society the very concept of parliamentarism as a political institution and democratic principles of state governance as a whole. In such conditions, the importance of the ongoing parliamentary elections has been increasing. Their results will effectively determine the fate of the Ukrainian parliamentarism and key features of further foreign and domestic policy of the country.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, Parliamentarism, and Parliament
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

210. Political corruption in Ukraine

Author:
Yevhen Shulha
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
In recent years, the problem of political corruption has become especially pressing in Ukraine. The scale of that phenomenon in governmental and political institutes lets us describe political corruption as an attribute of their everyday activity. Political corruption poisoned all branches and institutes of state governance, local self-government, and presents the main obstacle on the road of Ukraine’s development into a truly democratic state. Political corruption may be identified as the main reason for the political crises of 2006-2009, and in more general terms, did not let Ukraine use its chance of fundamental internal modernisation and approach to EU standards in different sectors that arose after the presidential elections in 2004. Ukraine’s political elite proved unprepared to accept an incorrupt model of politics and governance, and therefore unprepared for large-scale and, most of all, effective fighting political corruption. As a result, accusations of political corruption became only a tool of political struggle and public rhetoric of politicians. Meeting no effective counteraction, political corruption gradually evolved from deviant behaviour into a norm of relations in the state and political circles. “Hierarchic corrupt pyramids” and “closed corrupt cycles” were created in the system of governance, involving representatives of different institutes of governance. Political corruption is nourished by the activity of the most potent financial and industrial groups, and structures of the shadow economy that have enough resources to finance politics behind the scene and influence the authorities in that manner. Political and state figures secured themselves against political responsibility. Channels of public influence on the authorities are effectively obstructed. The system of parliamentary elections and most of local self-government bodies bars voters’ influence on its personal membership. Exercise of the citizens’ right to organisation and conduct of referendums, accomplishment of the procedures of presidential impeachment or bringing members of the parliament to criminal responsibility are next to impracticable. The structures primarily called to oppose corruption – courts and law-enforcement bodies – proved the most vulnerable to it. Internally corrupt, affected by varied managerial and political influences, they cannot effectively discharge their functions of fighting political corruption. The peculiarities of such inability are, on one hand, failed attempts of prosecution of top officials in cases of corruption, on the other – persecution of political opponents under invented pretexts. Further spread of political corruption in Ukraine endangers its national security, since it impairs the effectiveness of the authorities, undermines their public legitimacy, promotes legal nihilism in society, disappointment about the values of democracy and the rule of law. This results in impairment of the country’s competitiveness on the world scene, its ability to effectively counter inner and outer challenges. This study by Razumkov Centre was intended to identify the specificities and scale of political corruption in Ukraine, the fields and reasons of its growth, to provide the basis for formulation of the optimal strategy of countering that phenomenon.
Topic:
Corruption, Government, Politics, and Elections
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine