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11. 'An Insane Miracle': 100 years of since the first Labour government

Author:
Carolyn Quinn, Jon Cruddas, David Torrance, Jane Ridley, and Richard Johnson
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
On 22 January 1924, the United Kingdom experienced what The Annual Register described as ‘a revolution as profound as that associated with the Reform Act of 1832’ – the formation of the first Labour government. After an inconclusive general election in December 1923, the King invited Ramsay MacDonald to become Prime Minister. For the leader of the so-called ‘Wild Men’ – who had helped to found the Labour Representation Committee in 1900 and been the fledgling party’s leader for a little over a year – the formation of his minority administration was ‘an insane miracle’. While the government was defeated just over nine months later, at a general election in October 1924, it proved to the country and the wider movement that the Labour Party was willing and able to govern. To mark the centenary of MacDonald’s appointment, the Mile End Institute assembled a stellar panel of experts on Labour politics, the constitution, and interwar Britain. In addition to Jon Cruddas MP and Dr David Torrance - whose new books A Century of Labour and The Wild Men had just been published - we were joined by Professor Jane Ridley (the author of George V: Never a Dull Moment) and Dr Richard Johnson. In this fascinating discussion chaired by the journalist and former host of Radio 4’s Westminster Hour, Carolyn Quinn, the panel reflected on King George V's decision to call for MacDonald rather than the governing Conservative or Liberal parties, the changing makeup of the Labour Party and its relationship with the Crown, and the MacDonald administration's political and legislative achievements. With a general election approaching, the panel also considered what lessons, if any, MacDonald’s minority administration offers to future Labour governments.
Topic:
Reform, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Labour Party
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

12. Europe’s Democracy Catch-22

Author:
Richard Youngs
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
The dominant, epoch-making European storyline is now clear: the rise of the far right threatens the European Union (EU)’s future and democracy. This standard view is expressed in countless opinion pieces and political speeches and is now reshaping both national and EU-level politics. Even if the far right did not surge quite as dramatically as widely predicted in either the European Parliament or French parliamentary elections, its growing popularity clearly represents a pressing challenge both at the EU level and in national politics (Ash 2024). However, the continent’s predicament might be more accurately described as a more subtle and complex conundrum: in the immediate short term, what is good for the EU integration project might not be good for democracy, and vice versa. The EU and national governments have been struggling with this democracy catch-22 for several years now, and the election results make it an even sharper challenge. The postelection context has been dominated by the debate over whether to engage or isolate the far right—a debate that has been exhaustively covered and unfolding for many years. Yet, the empirical record suggests that neither engaging with the far right nor ostracizing it has worked especially well. Instead, a third approach might help map a way out of the democracy catch-22: a European democracy pact.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Democracy, and Far Right
Political Geography:
Europe

13. The “Revival” of PiS: The Transformation of Campaign Strategies from the Kaczynski Twins to Andrzej Duda

Author:
Melissa Stolfi
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The paper analyzes the campaign strategies of the PiS political party during the Polish elections from 2009 to 2020. It examines how the gradual modernization of communication strategies and the adoption of a less aggressive narrative contributed to the party’s revival after a decline in support caused by the political crisis of 2007 and the death of leader Lech Kaczynski in 2010. The research aims to identify the changes in campaigning that contributed to regaining electoral success since the 2015 national elections. The analysis is based on audio-visual materials produced by PiS for the elections during both the “crisis” period (2009-2013) and the “revival” period (2014-2020), allowing for a comparative analysis of the main changes between these two periods. Through content analysis of these materials, the study investigates the topics, genres, formats, national and European dimensions, personalization strategies, and use of negative advertising.
Topic:
Communications, Elections, Domestic Politics, Propaganda, Political Parties, and Advertising
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Poland

14. The rise of the far right in the European Union: Gaining power not through a sweeping victory, but through creeping normalisation

Author:
Nils Fabian Müller
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
In the 2024 EU elections, far-right parties are expected to win more seats in the European Parliament than ever before. At the national level, too, far-right parties are entering more and more EU governments. Despite these gains, the centre-right European People’s Party, rather than the far right, is likely to play the central role in the EU institutions in the next legislature. The EU’s consensus-based system is a safeguard against the sudden seizure of power by far-right parties. But once they have achieved a certain position, the same system makes it difficult for others to form majorities without them. The EU is therefore facing not a sweeping but a creeping gain in far-right power, as centrist political parties become more open to cooperation, and far-right positions are slowly normalised in political discourse. Paradoxically, the very mechanisms that are supposed to protect national sovereignty (such as unanimity requirements in the Council) are the ones most likely to allow far-right parties to influence EU policy, even if they represent only a minority of EU citizens.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Far Right, and European Parliament
Political Geography:
Europe

15. Moldova’s European course: To be continued or to be reversed?

Author:
Ryhor Nizhnikau and Arkady Moshes
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Against all expectations, the pro-European forces in Moldova failed to triumph in Sunday’s election. In particular, the results of the referendum on joining the EU revealed an antagonistic division of the nation into two halves. The parliamentary election next spring could put Moldova’s European integration on hold altogether.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Regional Integration, and Eastern Neighborhood
Political Geography:
Europe and Moldova

16. Modi III and the EU, after the Elections

Author:
Jan Luykx
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The May elections in India and the June elections for the European Parliament have resulted in leadership-continuity in Delhi and in EU-Brussels. Does this mean that Europe can expect ‘more of the same’ from the new Indian government and vice versa? Will the EU and India take the opportunity of this new start to re-engage in a more significant way than they have done during the last couple of years? Will they be able to identify common interests, and more importantly, act upon them?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, European Union, Narendra Modi, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:
Europe, South Asia, and India

17. EU Elections: National Democracy at Its Cornerstone?

Author:
Ward Den Dooven
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
On the eve of the European elections, those who keep a keen eye already know that a big turnaround of the European hemicycle is to be expected, with more than 50% being newly elected. In a recent article, the secondary place occupied by the European elections was highlighted; in Belgium they can even be said to only rank as tertiary due to its collision with national and regional elections on the same day. Although up to 8 member states will see both national and European elections in 2024, this very much gives a unique context to the EU elections in Belgium. Its conclusions however were not new: although the federal government presented itself as radically pro-European, currently holding the Council of the EU’s rotating Presidency, in Belgium as well as abroad, the European election is inherently still very much national in nature: the limited space that is left for it between the other campaigns becomes confused through both themes and politicians being presented at other levels than they (currently) sit.
Topic:
Economics, Elections, European Union, Democracy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

18. Figures on the Billiard Table: EU-China Dynamics in the Wake of the 2024 European Elections

Author:
Bart Dessein and Jasper Roctus
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
While still a powerhouse in its own right, Europe’s relative influence on the world stage has been diminishing over the last few decades. Data, for example, highlight a significant shift in global trade patterns away from the old continent. According to a recent Brookings’ calculation, South-South trade had by 2009, i.e., around the time of the global financial crisis, increased from 10.9 per cent to 25.0 per cent worldwide. South-South trade thus surpassed North-North trade for the first time in world history. Today, 35.0 per cent of global trade is accounted for by South-South merchandise trade, and just 25.0 per cent of global trade is North-North trade. One important factor in this is a surging China-Africa trade. With China’s bilateral trade with Africa rising from 2.7 billion dollar in 1990 to 209 billion dollar in 2022, China has now become Africa’s single largest trading partner.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Elections, European Union, Trade, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

19. A crisis of one’s own: The politics of trauma in Europe’s election year

Author:
Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
European politics is not simply divided between left and right, and between pro- and anti-European integration attitudes – but between different ‘crisis tribes’ whose members have been traumatised by key events. In the last decade, Europe has undergone crises of the economy, security, health, climate, and migration, which have created political identities that run through and between countries. Germany is the only country whose citizens select ‘immigration’ as the issue that has affected them above all else. In France and Denmark, people choose climate change as the most important crisis. Italians and Portuguese point to global economic turmoil. In Spain, Great Britain, and Romania, the covid-19 pandemic is the principal issue. Estonians, Poles, and Danes consider the war in Ukraine to be the most transformative of crises. In the upcoming European Parliament election, covid-19, the economy, and Ukraine are unlikely to be key mobilising issues. The climate and migration crises are dominating headlines and will be especially influential in how people vote.
Topic:
Climate Change, Immigration, Elections, Trauma, European Parliament, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

20. Moldova votes 2024: A choice between Russia and the EU

Author:
Hugo Blewett-Mundy
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Moldova stands at a critical juncture that will determine its position within Europe. In the elections on Sunday, the incumbent president Maia Sandu is seeking a second term and a positive result in the EU accession referendum to reaffirm her country’s path towards Europe. But the hybrid threat facing Moldova from Russia will not dissipate, particularly as next year’s pivotal parliamentary elections approach in the tiny former Soviet republic. Hugo Blewett-Mundy, a non-resident associate research fellow from EUROPEUM, analyses the current situation in Moldova and provides an outlook for the country in 2025.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Moldova