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121. Coming out and breaking out: The US, Iran and Europe go nuclear

Author:
Erwin van Veen
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
On the eve of the US elections, the nuclear deal (JCPOA) stands on the edge of the precipice. The US strategy of ‘maximum pressure’ has not (yet) achieved its implicit objective of 'regime change' but tanked Iran’s economy, caused its government to dig in and increased regional instability. The geopolitical consequences of US sanctions, EU prevarication and Iran’s deep presence throughout the Middle East have been equally profound. At the global level, they include nudging Iran towards China/Russia, the US alienating its European ‘partners’ and encouraging them to develop greater strategic autonomy. At the regional level, US sanctions risk creating an alternative economic regional order, ensuring Yemen remains a protracted war and making a regional security initiative more necessary, but less likely. It is not yet too late to turn the tide. The focus should now be on reducing regional tensions and especially the stress that sanctions have put on Iran’s population and government. Radical action looks more inviting when one stands against the wall, but the Middle East does not need more conflict than it already has. To do so, the EU should first support Iran with a large-scale Covid-19 humanitarian economy recovery package. As such measures are already sanctions-exempt, they will create few new tensions. An economic initiative should follow that grants preferential access to the EU’s internal market for industrial and agricultural goods from the entire Middle East (for Iran via an upgraded INSTEX). Such interventions will not resolve existing security dilemmas but can show there is an alternative to confrontation.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Sanctions, Nuclear Power, Elections, and European Union
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Iran, Yemen, and United States of America

122. “To protect national sovereignty from the EU?” The 2019 EP elections and populist parties in V4 countries

Author:
Vladimír Naxera, Viktor Glied, Ondřej Filipec, and Małgorzata Kaczorowska
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
This article analyses the 2019 European Parliament (EP) election manifestos of populist parties in V4 countries as a contribution to the contemporary discussion on political populism. The aim of the study is to analyze the election campaign programs which populist parties operating in individual V4 countries presented for EP elections in 2019, using a qualitative content analysis of the official election programs of relevant populist parties and other sources of their communication. It tries to identify topics that have been framed as a problem or risk by Central European populists and how these topics have been interpreted in their programs. The so-called “immigration crisis” and the contemporary state of the European Union are seen as the most problematic topics by a majority of the populists. On the other hand, the majority of these parties do not want some Central European version of Brexit. Their rhetorical goal is rather the reform the Union.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Populism, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Europe and Central Europe

123. Changes in the Electoral Code and Their Impact on the Security of the Election The Origin for Discussion Based on Selected Comments

Author:
Karol Pachnik
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
After the local government elections in Poland in 2018, the adopted solutions aimed at increasing the security of the elections were reviewed. Some of the solutions adopted so far have been abandoned, such as transmissions from the polling station, while others have been minimized (the division of the precinct electoral commissions in the precinct electoral commission for voting in the region and the precinct electoral commission for determining the results of voting in the region). In public opinion polls, the National Electoral Commission achieved record of confidence.
Topic:
Security, Elections, Democracy, and Local
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

124. The Battle of Brexit. Analysis of the 2019 United Kingdom General Election Results

Author:
Bartłomiej H. Toszek
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
The article presents the main parties (i.e. the Conservative Party, Labor Party, Liberal Democrats and Scottish National Party) results of the 2019 UK general election as well as an analysis of the most important issues (i.e. correct identification of voters’ expectations, simplicity and clarity of the messages, leaders’ personalities) which determined each party success or loss. The author proves that since Brexit was the primary focus of voters, the level of support for particular parties remained dependent on the solutions presented in this issue. This basis explains why the Conservatives in the whole UK and the SNP in Scotland won (and the Labor Party and the Liberal Democrats lost) the battle of Brexit.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Elections, European Union, Brexit, and Nativism
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

125. Prospects for European and U.S. Policy toward Iran

Author:
Ariane Tabatabai and Edgar P. Tam
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
President Donald Trump’s views on Iran have centered on dismantling the landmark nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which was agreed in 2015. He made it clear early on that he believed he could negotiate a better deal with Iran that would not compromise the interests of the United States as much and that would also address far more issues of concern to its partners in the Middle East. However, to date the Trump administration has not come any closer to achieving this goal. Instead, the United States and Iran have come close to war. Although European countries share objectives on Iran with the United States—for instance, limiting Iran’s ballistic-missile activities and seeking its return to compliance with its nuclear commitments under the JCPOA—they disagree strongly with President Trump’s approach to achieving these. His approach has made Washington the proverbial bull in a china shop for U.S allies in Europe, forcing them to put on hold long-desired objectives such as expanding economic ties with Iran and bringing it closer into a community of responsible stakeholders. Therefore, the result of the U.S. presidential election will have a significant impact on Europe’s relations with the United States when it comes to dealing with Iran. There are several ways in which a Trump reelection could affect Europe’s calculations. A second Trump administration that maintains a hard-line policy toward Iran would lead Europe to double down on encouraging Iran to negotiate by offering incentives as a demonstration of its good faith to Washington. Alternatively, no longer having to think about his reelection, Trump may pursue a less hard-line approach to secure negotiations, thus solidifying his presidential legacy. Germany and France in particular might seek additional leverage to temper and perhaps even counter Trump’s hard-line Iran policy to limit what they view as the damage caused by his administration. For its part, the United Kingdom may align more with the United States, causing a rupture in European unity. However, a “hybrid” scenario is most likely, in which Europe would continue its attempts to be perceived as independent while seeking a greater role in leading a quiet international effort to get Iran back in compliance with the JCPOA and at the negotiating table. If Joe Biden becomes president, he would return the United States to the JCPOA if Iran returned to compliance—which Europe also wants—while trying to negotiate additional commitments from Tehran on other areas of concern, such as missile testing and U.S. hostages. If this plan is complicated by the Trump administration’s pursuit of a unilateral sanctions snapback before it leaves office, however, a Biden administration may find itself facing a scenario in which there is no JCPOA to rejoin. This could be further complicated by a withdrawal by Iran from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which it has threatened to do. Even if there is a change in U.S. administration, European countries would still have to overcome differences among themselves on many aspects of Iran policy. A post-Brexit Europe may see the United Kingdom more aligned with U.S. objectives than European ones and acting more as an occasional “+1” to a remaining E2 of France and Germany. European countries also disagree on how to approach Iran’s malign activities, such as terrorism—with Germany having outlawed all of Hezbollah’s activities while the United Kingdom, France, and other European countries distinguish between the organization’s ostensibly political arm and its militant wing. These intra-European divisions, despite the European Union trying to establish a united front, make it easier for Iran’s propaganda efforts to sow division among European countries and in the transatlantic relationship.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, and JCPOA
Political Geography:
Europe, Iran, and United States of America

126. Housing and Voting in Germany: Multi-Level Evidence for the Association between House Prices and Housing Tenure and Party Outcomes, 1980–2017

Author:
Paul Beckmann, Barbara Fulda, and Sebastian Kohl
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:
Traditional predictors of election outcomes in Germany are increasingly losing their explanatory power. Rather than new cultural divides, this paper introduces the idea of housing cleavages, i.e., homeownership versus tenancy and high-price versus low-price areas, drawing on macro data for electoral districts and urban neighborhoods from the last three elections (2009–2017) in combination with Immoscout24 ad price data and microdata from the ALLBUS survey (1980–2016). Although, due to its low homeownership rate and conservative house price development, Germany represents a least-likely case for housing to be of importance, we find housing effects beyond traditional predictors. Generally, we find that high house prices, house price increases, and homeownership are positively associated with voting for center-right parties and voter turnout, while social tenancy is associated with votes for the left, but these effects weaken over time due to embourgeoisement effects. Beyond this expected left-right distinction between tenants and wealthier homeowners, we also find outliers along two other dimensions. First, there are center-periphery effects that housing can better capture than simple geographical divisions; second, house prices contain a populist dimension, for example when skyrocketing rents increase votes for the urban left or regions where house prices lag behind benefit the AfD. The paper argues against the more causal self-interest and socialization theories of the influence of housing on voting and instead suggests considering housing as an important socioeconomic proxy to explain political outcomes.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Voting, and Homeownership
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

127. The EU should prepare for all UK post-election scenarios

Author:
Larissa Brunner
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
With the UK elections imminent, Larissa Brunner lays out three different scenarios depending on the outcome. None offer any reason for the EU to be optimistic. If the Conservatives win, the Withdrawal Agreement will probably be passed, providing short-term predictability and certainty. But any long-term deal will probably be much worse than the status quo. A Labour victory would mean the opposite: further short-term uncertainty until the new government has renegotiated another Brexit deal and held a second referendum, but a possible closer relationship in the long run (assuming the Leave vote is confirmed). A hung Parliament would combine the worst of both worlds. And then there’s the Scottish question. Regardless of whether the new government needs SNP support or not, the political pressure on London to endorse a second independence vote is likely to increase. The EU should, therefore, not take its eye off the ball and use the current respite in the Brexit process to prepare itself for all of the possible post-election scenarios.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
Britain, United Kingdom, Europe, and Scotland

128. The Convergence of Presidential and Parliamentary Elections in France: Analysis of Systemic Tendencies from the Perspective of Sixty Years of the Fifth Republic

Author:
Łukasz Jakubiak
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
The paper deals with specific links between presidential and parliamentary elec- tions in contemporary France. The main goal is to demonstrate that the timing of the two types of political events is a significant factor preserving the configuration of a pro-pres- idential majority fact as one of the possible variants of French semi-presidentialism. This raises the question of the role of both elections as instruments for controlling the process of setting up a space of political rivalry that could be perceived as optimal from the viewpoint of ruling camps. The author analyses possibilities to provide the convergence of presidential and parliamentary elections under the conditions of a seven-year presidential term as well as after its shortening to five years in 2000. Hence, of particular importance is the impact of some mechanisms used in this field on the institutional logic of the French political sys- tem. Specific application of constitutional tools and some normative changes introduced in previous years cause the extent of the aforementioned control to be now much greater than in the first decades of the Fifth Republic. Looking at the convergence of both types of elec- tions from the perspective of the evolution of the existing political system, the author argues that it is legitimate to divide the whole period of the Fifth Republic into three sub-periods: 1. the absence of electoral convergence (1958–1981); 2. partial electoral convergence (1981– –2002); full electoral convergence (since 2002). Due to the acceptance of the pro-presiden- tial paradigm, the latter formula is now definitely preferred and supported by legal regula- tions, which affects the flexibility of French semi-presidentialism (significantly reduced, but not fully eliminated, probability of cohabitation).
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Parliamentarism, and Presidential Elections
Political Geography:
Europe and France

129. Brexit: the manifestos uncovered

Author:
Anand Menon
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
This is, according to several of the parties and at least one national broadcaster, a Brexit election. Assuming this is wholly – or even partially (as even Labour accept in their manifesto) – true, what the parties are saying about Brexit is therefore of crucial importance. This report represents our attempt to identify what they say, to compare the different pledges the parties make and to explain in straightforward terms what each of them is offering on Brexit. Our aim, simply stated, is to promote understanding so people can make up their own minds. Once again, we have been fortunate enough to be able to draw on the expertise of some of the country’s leading social scientists. Catherine Barnard, Matt Bevington, Charlotte Burns, Katy Hayward, Nicola McEwen, Jonathan Portes, Jill Rutter and Dan Wincott all contributed to this report. Alan Wager and John-Paul Salter edited the text. We hope you find what follows enlightening and informative. Election campaigns produce endless amounts of heat. We have attempted in what follows to shed at least a little light.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, European Union, Brexit, and Society
Political Geography:
Britain, United Kingdom, and Europe

130. The mechanics of a further referendum on Brexit revisited: questions for the new parliament

Author:
Alan Renwick, Meg Russell, Lisa James, and Jess Sargeant
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Academics from the UCL Constitution Unit examine objectively the options for a further referendum. The chapters in the report explain the following: How a further referendum might come about; The referendum process, and the minimum timetable; The form the question might take; The regulatory framework, and options for improving the quality of debate; The pros and cons of making a referendum legally binding; How and when a further referendum might occur.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, European Union, Brexit, Referendum, and Society
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe