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111. Lessons from Belarus: How the EU can support clean elections in Moldova and Georgia

Author:
Andrew Wilson
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The European Union was largely on the sidelines when the Belarusian regime rigged the 2020 presidential election, but upcoming votes in Georgia and Moldova pose a different challenge. The EU should make use of its significant leverage in Georgia and Moldova to counter their ruling parties’ extensive repertoire of electoral dirty tricks. The bloc will need to account for the obstacles created by the coronavirus crisis, not least the difficulty of conducting large-scale monitoring missions. The EU will also need to adjust to the ruling parties’ use of pandemic assistance for political gain, and their efforts to prevent citizens abroad from voting.
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, Elections, European Union, and Coronavirus
Political Geography:
Europe, Moldova, Georgia, and Belarus

112. US Elections - The optimistic worst-case scenario

Author:
Christian Kvorning Lassen
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Christian Kvorning Lassen, Deputy Director of the EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy, comments on the US presidential election. The US elections will come down to the wire, and will be determined by mail-in votes. While this was fully expected during the COVID-19 pandemic, it was also the worst-case scenario given Trump’s persistent attempts to delegitimize mail-in votes, despite lack of clear evidence of their fraudulence. Much like 2016, the key battleground states are Pennsylvania (20 EC votes), Michigan (16) and Wisconsin (10), with mail-in votes deciding their outcome. As of this writing, Pennsylvania has counted 700.000 out of 2.5 million mail-in votes, of which Biden has won 71.7% of them to Trump’s 21.3%. Michigan has counted 425.000 out of 2.48 million, with Biden winning 65% to Trump’s 33%. Finally, Wisconsin still needs to count 1.3 million mail-in votes. Should the trend of Biden winning 2/3 of all mail-in votes, Biden will be a clear election winner, giving the Biden camp cause for optimism.
Topic:
Elections, Donald Trump, Pandemic, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

113. Belarus without Lukashenko: How it became a realistic scenario

Author:
Arkady Moshes and Ryhor Nizhnikau
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Alexander Lukashenko’s “victory” in the election cannot bridge the gap between the president and the modern part of Belarusian society. Turbulent times may lie ahead for Belarus. This will require the West to revise its current approach and invest more in supporting forces that want reforms and the country’s Europeanization.
Topic:
Reform, Elections, Europeanization, and Transition
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Belarus

114. Towards the 2021 Duma election: The Russian opposition needs strong leaders

Author:
Jussi Lassila
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Peopleʼs grievances were not reflected in Russia’s regional elections this year. The Kremlin is reaping the benefits of increasingly blatant electoral fraud and citizensʼ political apathy.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Elections, Rigged Elections, and Opposition
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Eastern Europe

115. Disenfranchising Democracy: Constructing the Electorate in the United States, the United Kingdom, and France, David A. Bateman

Author:
Dawn Langan Teele
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Political Science Quarterly
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
David A. Bateman’s new book explores nearly all of the crucial questions concerning democracy and inclusion that we are grappling with today, from the very broad—how do the ways in which we think about the origins of our nation inform the welcoming or hostile attitudes we assume in relation to immigrants and outsiders?—to the very narrow—do requirements that voters present physical documents verifying their identity reduce the electoral participation of minority groups? In answering these questions, Bateman offers a detailed portrait of the political machinations that result in electoral reforms, describing elites’ efforts to blur lines between expediency and morality and the circumstances that led conservative parties (the same that today seek to abolish laws that give special status to protected classes of people) to work hard to establish and maintain legal provisions that awarded different rights to different groups. Fundamentally, Bateman explains why steps toward inclusive democratic institutions are often accompanied by steps back, which leave us uncertain of our accomplishments and anxious about our future. Remarkably, though, Disenfranchising Democracy considers these familiar dynamics and dilemmas not in the contemporary world but in the rather distant past, drawing on a wealth of archival sources to analyze the timing of electoral reforms, the emergence and ossification of party- based patterns of support for franchise reform, and the political ideas of would-be reformers and resisters in three of the world’s first semidemocratic countries: the United States, the United Kingdom, and France.
Topic:
History, Elections, Democracy, Book Review, and Political Science
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, France, North America, and United States of America

116. Alternative Approaches to Information-Age Dilemmas Drive U.S. and Russian Arguments about Interference in Domestic Political Affairs

Author:
Pavel Sharikov
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
Abstract:
This paper investigates differences in Russian and American approaches to challenges of the information age, and explores some destabilizing effects on bilateral relations. The governments and societies in Russia and the United States base political and economic decisions about the development and use of information technology on different principles; in a globalized, interconnected world Russia’s collectivistic approach clashes with American individualistic approach. This exacerbates numerous problems in Russia-U.S. relations, including reciprocal allegations of information attacks as a form of interference in domestic affairs. Alternative approaches to information-age dilemmas make Russia and the United States particularly sensitive to different ways of using information technology to impact electoral processes and domestic politics, with little understanding of each other’s narratives and national priorities.
Topic:
Elections, Information Age, Disinformation, and Election Interference
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, North America, and United States of America

117. The Pushback Against Populism: Running on “Radical Love” in Turkey

Author:
F. Michael Wuthrich and David Ingleby
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Democracy
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
Drawing from the 2019 mayoral elections in Turkey, this paper highlights a path that opposition parties might take to defuse polarized environments and avoid playing into the political traps set by populists in power. The particular type of moral and amplified polarization that accompanies populism’s essential “thin” ideology builds a barrier between a populist’s supporters and the opposition. Yet the CHP opposition in Turkey has recently won notable victories with its new campaign approach of “radical love,” which counteracts populism’s polarizing logic and has exposed Erdoğan’s weakness.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Populism, and Authority
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Asia

118. Housing and Voting in Germany Multi-Level Evidence for the Association between House Prices and Housing Tenure and Party Outcomes, 1980–2017

Author:
Paul Beckman, Barbara Fulda, and Sebastian Kohl
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
Traditional predictors of election outcomes in Germany are increasingly losing their explana- tory power. Rather than new cultural divides, this paper introduces the idea of housing cleav- ages, i.e., homeownership versus tenancy and high-price versus low-price areas, drawing on macro data for electoral districts and urban neighborhoods from the last three elections (2009– 2017) in combination with Immoscout24 ad price data and microdata from the ALLBUS sur- vey (1980–2016). Although, due to its low homeownership rate and conservative house price development, Germany represents a least-likely case for housing to be of importance, we find housing effects beyond traditional predictors. Generally, we find that high house prices, house price increases, and homeownership are positively associated with voting for center-right par- ties and voter turnout, while social tenancy is associated with votes for the left, but these effects weaken over time due to embourgeoisement effects. Beyond this expected left-right distinction between tenants and wealthier homeowners, we also find outliers along two other dimensions. First, there are center-periphery effects that housing can better capture than simple geographical divisions; second, house prices contain a populist dimension, for example when skyrocketing rents increase votes for the urban left or regions where house prices lag behind benefit the AfD. The paper argues against the more causal self-interest and socialization theories of the influence of housing on voting and instead suggests considering housing as an important socioeconomic proxy to explain political outcomes.
Topic:
Elections, Voting, Homeownership, and Housing
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and Central Europe

119. Western Balkans in 2020

Author:
Žiga Faktor and Jana Juzová
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Our researchers, Žiga Faktor and Jana Juzová, analyse elections in Serbia, Croatia, Northern Macedonia and Montenegro in four policy papers and offer recommendations aimed at strengthening the EU's enlargement policy. In this report, EUROPEUM’s two researchers – Jana Juzová and Žiga Faktor – analyze each of the four elections from these perspectives in four policy papers, offering succinct dissections of the elections themselves, as well as what they portend for the future of the region and the EU’s enlargement policy. Based on their analyses, they offer policy recommendations designed to strengthen the EU enlargement policy in a tailor-made approach rather than the hitherto “one size fits all”-approach that has proven dysfunctional not only from the perspective of future enlargement, but also retrospectively during the last enlargement wave in 2004. The enlargement policy may be seen as marginalized today, yet the enlargement policy is not solely a policy of enlargement; it is a window into the state of the EU, as well as the soul of Europe itself. It is therefore my pleasure to invite interested readers to read more about the 2020 developments in the Western Balkans, offering both valuable insights about the region itself, and an opportunity to thoughtfully consider what role the EU and Europe should play in a changing world marred by instability and upheaval.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Domestic Politics, and Parliamentarism
Political Geography:
Europe, Serbia, Balkans, Croatia, and Montenegro

120. One Year of Zelensky’s Presidency: One Step Forward, One Step Back

Author:
Leonid Litra and Alyona Getmanchuk
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
The election of Volodymyr Zelensky as president of Ukraine created very high expectations in the society. He built his campaign narrative around three central messages: peace in Donbas, the curtailment of corruption and the end of poverty. The hope that he could deliver on his promises was strengthened with the victory of his party (Servant of the People) in the snap parliamentary elections in summer 2019. It is the first time in the history of independent Ukraine that a single party has a majority in parliament. Therefore, President Zelensky enjoys unprecedented conditions, and, while he still has four years in office, the one-year anniversary is the right moment to make the first assessment.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, and Volodymyr Zelensky
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine