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91. The Labour Party in Opposition and Power 1979-2019: Forward March Halted?

Author:
Patrick Diamond
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
The cycle of defeat and recovery begins in 1979 with Labour’s ejection from office following the economic and political crises of the 1970s.2 The party’s defeat was traumatic, if not unexpected. The Prime Minister, Jim Callaghan admitted: ‘There are times, perhaps once every thirty years, when there is a sea-change in politics. It then does not matter what you say or what you do. There is a shift in what the public wants and what it approves of. I suspect there is now such a sea- change and it is for Mrs. Thatcher’. The loss of office was as nothing compared with the harrowing events of the decade that followed. Labour suffered a further three consecutive defeats. In 1981, the party was almost obliterated by the breakaway Social Democratic Party (SDP), threatening to end Labour’s grip on the centre-left vote. Only the First- Past-the-Post electoral system saved Labour as the dominant force on the Left of British politics. Even so, the party remained bitterly divided. The leadership spent years embroiled in internal factional disputes, such was its determination to destroy the hard Left entryist Militant Tendency. Since the 1950s, Labour was weakened by recurrent intra-party conflict. Most notable were its divisions over Europe, fundamental ideological disagreements about the role of the state in the economy, and the primacy that should be accorded to nationalisation and public ownership in the party’s programme.
Topic:
Elections, Political Parties, Opposition, and Partisanship
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

92. The Berlin Pulse 2021/22 (full issue)

Author:
Julia Ganter, Heather A Conley, Nobuo Kishi, Kevin Rudd, and Manuel Muniz
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Körber-Stiftung
Abstract:
As this fifth edition was being finalized, all eyes were on Germany. In the September federal elections, Germans decided not only about their next government, but also about the future of one of the biggest and economically most powerful countries in Europe. International interest in the outcome of the elections and Germany’s next government was high and the German capital full of correspondents. Meanwhile, foreign policy and the future of Germany’s role in the world played only a marginal role in the campaign. Although it is not unusual that voters and the media are more interested in the chancellor candidates’ positions regarding tax policy than their stance on relations with China or defence spending, the gap between international expectations and German self-perception was striking. Attentive readers of The Berlin Pulse are already familiar with this gap. Since 2017, our representative survey of German attitudes towards foreign policy shows that a majority of Germans prefer restraint over stronger international involvement. This attitude of the German public does not easily change one way or the other. Even a foreign policy earthquake like the debacle in Afghanistan did not have a notable impact. This edition of The Berlin Pulse ‘minds the gap’ by letting international decisionmakers and experts have a say about their expectations of post-Merkel Germany and by juxtaposing their positions with German public opinion. It also looks at the international implications of two megatrends: the digital transformation and climate change. As Cédric O and Marietje Schaake argue in the second chapter, German and European political inaction in the digital sphere would be disastrous for democracies around the world. And Patricia Espinosa and Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, among others, remind us in the third chapter of the impact a failed response to the climate crisis would have for everyone. The public is aware of this: In this year’s survey, Germans mention climate change and the environment as one of the greatest foreign policy challenges for their country.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Diplomacy, Migration, Science and Technology, Public Opinion, Elections, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

93. Building European Resilience and Capacity to Act: Lessons for 2030

Author:
Roderick Parkes, Anna-Lena Kirch, and Serafine Dinkel
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Containing twelve scenarios for the world in 2030, this report offers insights into how the EU can maintain and build up its capacity to act in the face of the major disruptive changes that are likely to come over this decade. It is being released in the run-up to German elections in September 2021 that will serve as a kind of referendum on ten years of government-heavy crisis management.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Crisis Management, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

94. Negative Campaigning on Social Media Sites: A Quantitative Analysis of the 2019 Austrian National Council Election Campaign

Author:
Stefan Lehrner
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
Election campaigns in the age of social media are rapidly changing their character. Due to the declining party loyalty of voters, once stable constituencies have become increasingly volatile and the importance of campaigning has increased. Parties are now thought to be more likely than in the past to opt for negative campaigning. This paper examines the postings that parties or top candidates made on the social media sites Facebook and Twitter during the 2019 National Council election campaign. The results suggest that - at least on social media sites - the cost-benefit analysis of the parties might turn towards negative campaigning, as the average popularity of negative campaigning posts was higher than those that were not tagged with negative campaigning.
Topic:
Mass Media, Elections, Social Media, Election Interference, and Campaigning
Political Geography:
Europe and Austria

95. Genderizing of the Participation in the Decision-Making Process: The Electoral Quota and Female Leadership in Albania

Author:
Evis Garunja
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
This paper is focused on the Albanian electoral system, its total inclusion approach, protection and promotion of gender characteristics, historical and legal developments on the gender quotas necessity, the comparison in time and space, the barriers and opportunities to promote gender politics in public and social area in Albania. The methodology will consist of a comparative analysis of legislation, the international legal framework, recommendations of international institutions, policy papers on identifying the causes why higher gender representation in politics produces estimated results in the public area, social and economic development. Analysis of the circumstances, historical periods, social and economic impact in legal amendments would be another methodology component. Gender quotas provide a critical minority of women, from 20% to a gender balance of 50%, either as an education of the community to face with real gender balance in common life.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Elections, Democracy, Voting, and Electoral Systems
Political Geography:
Europe and Albania

96. Israel and the New ‘Old Europe’

Author:
Emmanuel Navon
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The new German government and the upcoming elections in France create challenges and opportunities for Israel’s foreign policy, which must adapt to Europe’s evolving political map.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Governance, and Elections
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Israel

97. Who will succeed Angela Merkel? Germany in a state of uncertainty three weeks before the federal elections

Author:
Corinne Deloy
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
On 9 December, the President of the Federal Republic of Germany, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, informed his fellow citizens that the next federal elections would take place on 26 September 2021. 54 political parties are standing for election, a record number in Germany's history. In the 1990s and early 2000s, fewer than 30 parties ran. In the last federal election in 2017, there were 42. The only certainty of the election is that Germany will have a new chancellor since Angela Merkel, after 16 years of government by her party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) in a "grand coalition", with the exception of the years 2009-2013 when she governed with the Liberal Democratic Party (FDP), is not seeking reelection. After four terms as the head of the country's government, Angela Merkel remains very popular: last May, she held 60% of positive opinions and was ahead of all other political figures in Germany. "Germans appreciate Angela Merkel as a good manager, a chancellor who always seeks compromise,” declared Markus Inden of Trier University.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Domestic Politics, and Angela Merkel
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

98. A year of electoral uncertainty Germany turns the page on Merkel

Author:
Frank Baasner and Stefan Seidendorf
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Angela Merkel, at the head of the German government since 2005, will leave her position after the federal elections on 26 September. While this departure seems to be a foregone conclusion, the election also heralds other, more structural changes, which will affect even the tectonics of the deep forces of the German political system. After the weeklong psychodrama in which the CDU-CSU was unable to reach a consensual agreement on its candidate to succeed Angela Merkel, the election on 26 September could very well represent a major political turning point. With six important regional elections in 2021[1], the changes underway have the potential to reshape the country's political landscape in a major way. The consequences for the 'stability' that has characterised the German political system since 1949, however, remain difficult to analyse.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

99. Signs of Change on the Hungarian Political Scene a Year Before Parliamentary Elections

Author:
Veronika Jóźwiak
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
For the first time in 12 years, the ruling Fidesz and the opposition have even chances of winning the parliamentary elections in April 2022. Unification of the opposition gives it strength, however, the institutional and financial advantages of the ruling party will be difficult to overcome. The government may be weakened by the effects of the pandemic and the loss of membership in the European People’s Party (EPP). The authorities aim to get funds from the new EU budget before the elections. As a partnership with the European extreme right will not contribute to this goal, the formation of a new grouping in the European Parliament (EP) by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is unlikely for now.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, European Union, and Far Right
Political Geography:
Europe, Hungary, and Central Europe

100. US foreign policy in the Balkans: new chapter

Author:
Vuk Vuksanovic
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
What challenges the new American administration will face in the Balkans, and how should it approach them? Read in the latest analysis of BCSP researcher Vuk Vuksanović. When Joseph Biden defeated Donald Trump in the 2020 US presidential elections, the Balkan countries were not neutral on that race. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić made a failed bet on Trump, hoping that under Trump, he will get a less painful settlement of the Kosovo dispute and an opportunity to finally make Belgrade a partner of Washington, after several decades. Vučić still congratulated Biden for his win alongside several other Balkan leaders who were probably happier about Biden’s win than him. US foreign policy towards the Balkans under Trump has been marked by transactional logic and disdain towards the European Union, best symbolised in the economic normalisation agreement between Belgrade and Priština brokered in September 2020 by Trump. Many policy hands, including Nicholas Burns, former US diplomat and one of Biden’s advisors, now expect that Biden will display US leadership in the region while cooperating closely with the European Union. The US foreign policy will have to deal with three sets of challenges: the unresolved Kosovo dispute, democratic backsliding in the region, and the presence of non-Western powers like Russia and China. While US power is a necessary element in resolving these challenges, the Biden administration will not be able to offer quick fixes.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Governance, Elections, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Europe, Serbia, North America, and United States of America