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531. Welfare State Growth and the Current Crisis in Portugal: Social Spending and its Challenges

Author:
Miguel Glatzer
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:
This paper focuses on the deep transformation of the Portuguese state under democracy and charts the development of very substantial welfare state. It examines the very substantial investments in social protection, social transfers, education and health and finds remarkable results in some areas but only partial success in others. The paper also looks at changes in employment and the growth of the state as a provider of jobs. The paper then turns to an analysis of the current crisis, examining both long-term factors and current dynamics as Portugal turns from initial stimulus to austerity to structural reform.
Topic:
Economics, Health, Poverty, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe

532. Managing Migration and Integration: Europe and the US

Author:
Philip Martin
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:
Most Americans and Europeans in opinion polls say that governments are doing a poor job of selecting wanted newcomers, preventing the entry and stay of unwanted foreigners, and integrating settled immigrants and their children. This seminar reviewed the evidence, asking about the economic and socio-political integration of low-skilled immigrants and their children.
Topic:
Economics, Migration, Immigration, Governance, and Law Enforcement
Political Geography:
United States, America, and Europe

533. Chinese in Georgia

Author:
Jiayi Zhou
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:
In the two decades after independence, Georgia's open economy and lax immigration policies have engendered, for the first time, immigration from far outside of the region. On the streets of Tbilisi, the most conspicuous of these migrants are from India, China, and the countries of Africa. Of those from India, a substantial number are students of medicine, or enrolled in other professional courses. Africans in Georgia are mostly driven by work opportunity with a few students in higher education institutions. Chinese immigrants, on the other hand, are almost entirely driven by economic opportunities. A modern Chinese presence in Georgia began in the 1990s with the beginning of Chinese state-owned investment ventures in the region, as well as a burgeoning restaurant scene. In 2000s, this expanded to encompass a trickle and then an influx of Chinese migrant shop owners and market vendors. The third wave of migration occurred in 2010 as a result of contract construction workers. As of today, there are around 1,000 Chinese now divided into five groups: specialists, businessmen, shopkeepers, contract workers, and those in the restaurant and catering sector. This paper will focus on the history of Chinese migrants in Georgia, driving causes, their level of integration (or lack thereof), vulnerabilities, and their status in Georgian society. It will also cover increasingly large-scale economic ventures in the country, the status of Chinese as a foreign language in Georgia, and the role of the PRC Embassy in the Chinese community.
Topic:
Economics, Migration, Immigration, and Minorities
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Europe, Asia, and Georgia

534. Much ado about nothing? State-controlled entities and the change in German investment law

Author:
Thomas Jost
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
The rise of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) -- together state-controlled entities (SCEs) -- has led to concerns that SCEs could threaten national security by following political rather than mere commercial goals with respect to their foreign direct investment (FDI). While developed countries acknowledged that the rise of SCEs should not lead to new barriers to FDI, several have changed their legislation to expand government oversight of FDI flows. In 2009, Germany also tightened its foreign investment regime. What are the first experiences with this change in German investment law?
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Foreign Direct Investment, and Law
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

535. Poland: Industry Forecast

Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
GDP is expected to rise by 2.6% in 2012 and expand by 2.7% in 2013. Over the next 10 years to 2021, GDP is predicted to grow on average by 3.2% a year. Manufacturing output growth is forecast to be higher than GDP growth over the next decade. Manufacturing output is expected to increase by 2.1% in 2012 and expand by 5.3% in 2013. Over the next 10 years to 2021, manufacturing output is expected to grow on average by 4.3% a year. As a result, the share of manufacturing output in GDP is projected to rise from 25.4% in 2011 to 27.2% by 2016 and increase to 28.7% by 2021. Over the same period, the share of service sector output in GDP is expected to decline from 58.5% in 2011 to 57.2% in 2016 and fall to 56.2% in 2021.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

536. Country Economic Forecasts: Germany

Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The German economy is clearly slowing in the face of the latest phase of the Eurozone crisis. We expect the impact of the crisis on business investment and exports to cause the economy to contract in Q2 before recovering slowly in H2. As a result, GDP growth is now forecast to slow to 0.7% in 2012 overall from 3.1% last year, before accelerating to 1.4% in 2013.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

537. Germany's Unsustainable Growth

Author:
Adam Tooze
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
With the euro in crisis, Germany has come to seem like a lone island of fiscal stability in Europe. Its debt levels are modest, its government bonds are safe havens for investors around the world, and it has avoided the kinds of private credit booms and housing bubbles that have destabilized the rest of the continent. The German economy, fueled by record exports, has grown steadily, expanding by a quarter over the last decade. But beneath the glowing headlines lies a darker story: Germany's economic position is simply unsustainable. For starters, much of its trade surplus has been earned at the expense of the corresponding current account deficits of the European countries in crisis. At the same time, this outsized surplus goes hand in hand with major imbalances within Germany's domestic economy. German businesses have invested their profits abroad, helping finance foreign imports. Meanwhile, as German money has flowed out of the country, domestic investment has languished at unprecedentedly low levels. Germany, like other rich, polluting, and aging countries, faces enormous long-term challenges. Its work force is shrinking, its energy sector needs to be remade, and its public infrastructure has gone too long without improvement. For all the talk of its financial strength, Germany has so far squandered the opportunity to secure long-term economic growth by addressing these challenges through badly needed domestic investments.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

538. The Eurasian Customs Union: Friend or Foe of the EU?

Author:
Olga Shumylo-Tapiola
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The customs union formed by Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan in 2010— the largest in the world by territory—is becoming very real. Though hurdles remain, member states are eliminating non-tariff barriers to trade within the union, moving toward a common external tariff, and fine-tuning a joint customs code. As the customs union's influence on the world stage and in Europe's neighborhood is likely to increase, the European Union (EU) should attempt to understand the project and find ways to protect its own interests.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Central Asia, Eurasia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus

539. The Geopolitics of Natural Gas

Author:
Amy Myers Jaffe and Meghan L. O'Sullivan
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Some of the most dramatic energy developments of recent years have been in the realm of natural gas. Huge quantities of unconventional US shale gas are now commercially viable, changing the strategic picture for the United States by making it self-sufficient in natural gas for the foreseeable future. This development alone has reverberated around the globe, causing shifts in patterns of trade and leading other countries in Europe and Asia to explore their own shale gas potential. Such developments are putting pressure on longstanding arrangements, such as oil-linked gas contracts and the separate nature of North American, European, and Asian gas markets, and may lead to strategic shifts, such as the weakening of Russia's dominance in the European gas market.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Europe and Asia

540. Moral Hazard in an Economic Union: Politics, Economics, and Fiscal Gimmickry in Europe

Author:
James Alt, David Dreyer Lassen, and Joachim Wehner
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper examines empirically how transparency of the budget process affects fiscal rules and incentives for fiscal gimmickry or creative accounting in the European Union. Using stock-flow adjustment data for EU countries from 1990-2007, we show that pressure from a deficit limit rule as in the Stability and Growth Pact creates incentives for fiscal gimmicks, as does political pressure from the electoral cycle and economic pressure from negative shocks in the business cycle. However, we show that where institutional transparency is higher, these incentives are damped and largely disappear. We infer that fiscal rules do not work well when institutional transparency is low.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe