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1361. Russian Financial Crisis Assessment 3: August 27, 1998

Author:
Rado Petkov and Rick Petree
Publication Date:
08-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
The latest private reports from Moscow indicate that the Duma is very likely to reject Viktor Chernomyrdin's candidacy for Prime minister next week. Tomorrow, Aug. 28 th , at 3:00 pm, the Duma and the Federation Council will meet to decide whether to recommend a vote on Chernomyrdin's candidacy. Whereas Chernomyrdin's chances are bleak, the fluid nature of current Russian political situation makes it impossible to firmly rule out his confirmation as prime minister, a post which he very much wants.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

1362. Russian Financial Crisis Assessment 2: August 25, 1998

Author:
Rado Petkov and Rick Petree
Publication Date:
08-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Since our Aug. 20th report, the situation in Russia has developed dramatically. On Friday (Aug. 21st), the lower house of the Russian parliament (the Duma) overwhelmingly called for Yeltsin's resignation and changes in the government and the leadership of the central bank. The Duma also passed a non-binding resolution demanding nationalization of some banks and restriction of foreign participation in domestic capital markets. In response, the RTS index of leading Russian shares fell 5.56% to 81.76 on negligible trading volume of $4.2 million. Central bank head Dubinin announced plans to activate Russia's precious metals reserves (approximately $5 billion of $15.1 billion total foreign exchange reserves) to support the ruble. On Sunday, Aug. 23rd, in an action anticipated in our Aug. 17th report, Yeltsin dismissed Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko and installed in his place Viktor Chernomyrdin.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

1363. Russian Financial Crisis Assessment 1: August 20, 1998

Author:
Rado Petkov and Rick Petree
Publication Date:
08-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Russian capital markets were already in what George Soros described as a “financial meltdown in . . . its terminal phase” on August 12th. Since then, capital markets have deteriorated significantly in reaction to measures announced by the Russian Government on Monday, Aug. 17th (summarized in Section II below). IEWS is actively evaluating the nature and extent of the crisis and trying to project its likely course.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

1364. Subregional Relations in the Southern Tier: Prospects for Development

Publication Date:
05-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Doubts were expressed as to the extent one could define the Caucasus and Central Asia as a single region, particularly for the purposes of exploring the potential for subregional cooperation to develop among its constituent states. External considerations (complex relationship between Russia and the states involved; presence of other outside actors; energy transit perspectives; influence of external conflict, i.e. Afghanistan) may point towards consideration of the Southern Tier as one region. However, internal perspectives, geographical, historical, political and cultural, suggest that treating subregionalism separately in the Caucasus and Central Asia might be a more realistic and potentially fruitful approach.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
New York, Europe, Eurasia, Eastern Europe, and Maryland

1365. Rival Views Of Postcommunist Market Society

Author:
Béla Greskovits
Publication Date:
10-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for European Studies at Cornell University
Abstract:
While reviewing various interpretations of the postcommunist transformation it is demonstrated that the manner social scientists think about postcommunism has much in common with the ideas of their predecessors who faced the emergence of capitalism over the past centuries. What explains the continuity of the major views? Why did the debate on the perspectives of capitalism and on the nature of its strengths and weaknesses reappear in the new historical case of postcommunist market society? This author argues that neither the specific historical nor the systemic context of capitalist expansion can account for the prevalence of competing interpretations. Rather the latter is the standard way social scientists think about systems and systemic change in general. But the trench-war between rival views of postcommunist market society also reflects the impact of new psychological, political, and institutional factors specific to the mass-production of social science ideas towards the end of the XXth century.
Topic:
Communism and Economics
Political Geography:
Europe

1366. Focal Points and International Financial Markets: The Maastricht Convergence Criteria

Author:
Layna Mosley
Publication Date:
03-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Studies Association
Abstract:
A central research problem in comparative and international political economy concerns the implications of economic globalization - and more specifically, of international capital mobility - for national economic policy choice. A large body of recent literature suggests that governments are, at least to some extent, constrained by relatively high levels of international capital mobility (Garrett, 1998; O'Brien, 1992). At the very least, the asset allocation decisions of financial market participants affect interest rate levels, and, therefore, the cost of borrowing for governments and private actors.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe

1367. The 1998 Per Jacobsson Lecture: Managing the International Economy in an Age of Globalisation

Author:
Peter D. Sutherland
Publication Date:
10-1998
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Overseas Development Council
Abstract:
Good afternoon. Thank you, Sir Jeremy, for that kind introduction. I am honored, not merely to have been selected to deliver this year's Per Jacobsson lecture, but by the presence of so many distinguished guests. I am also delighted that two previous Per Jacobsson lecturers could be here this afternoon, and I would like to recognize them: Jacques de Larosiere, the former Managing Director of the IMF and more recently the President of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and Joseph Yam, the Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

1368. Computers and Labour Markets: International Evidence

Author:
Francis Kramarz
Publication Date:
10-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The rapid diffusion of computers has widely changed the consequences of computer use on the labour market. While at the beginning of the eighties knowledge of computers was an obvious advantage in a career, this same knowledge is now so commonplace that the inability to use these tools is widely seen in many industries as a professional handicap. In relation to such drastic transformations, changes in the North American wage structure during the eighties in favour of the better educated have been interpreted by many analysts as evidence of skill-biased technical change. Evidence outside the US, and in particular in Europe, seems to support the idea that similar transformations affected most other labour markets.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

1369. Strategies for EU-Integration

Publication Date:
04-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
The decision to enlarge the European Union to applicant countries in Central and Eastern Europe is by far the most important instrument to secure the process of democratic and market economic reform in the new, post-Cold War Europe. To implement and manage this decision is indeed a challenge to both the existing members of the Union and the applicants. In principle, the roadmap is clear. Together with the acquis communautaire , the 1993 Copenhagen criteria outline the main framework for the way to full membership. The Union has further developed its enlargement strategy in the Agenda 2000 presented in July 1997.
Topic:
Economics and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Maryland

1370. Mixed Signals

Author:
Peter A. Hall and Robert J. Franzese Jr.
Publication Date:
09-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:
Plans for European Monetary Union are based on the conventional postulate that increasing the independence of the central bank can reduce inflation without any real economic effects. However, the theoretical and empirical bases for this claim rest on models of the economy that make unrealistic information assumptions and omit institutional variables other than the central bank. When the signaling problems between the central bank or other actors in the political economy are considered, we find that the character of wage bargaining conditions the impact of central bank independence by rendering the signals between the bank and the bargainers more or less effective. Greater independence can reduce inflation without major employment effects where bargaining is coordinated, but it brings higher levels of unemployment where bargaining is uncoordinated. Thus, currency unions like the EMU may require higher levels of unemployment to control inflation than their proponents envisage; they will have costs as well as benefits, costs which will be distributed unevenly among and within the member nations based on the changes induced in the status of the bank and of wage coordination.
Topic:
Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe