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21. Artificial Intelligence and the Clustering of Human Capital: The Risks for Europe

Author:
Erik van der Marel
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
Europe trails the global frontier of productivity growth and the region’s trend is sluggish. Much prospective economic growth for Europe is likely to come from AI and its adoption by European firms which is projected to shoot up the productivity trend. For such AI-generated growth to work, high levels of human capital need to be available for firms, in particular Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) graduates. However, much of this human capital for AI is leaving Europe and the region experiences a net outflow when it comes to the skills required to make AI work. Moreover, the spread of both human capital and AI is very uneven within Europe, with some in the West spearheading whilst others in the East are trailing. This paper shows that those regions in Europe that successfully have invested in human capital in the past explain more than one-third of AI adoption by their firms a decade later. Furthermore, this persistent trend is driven by the most human capital-intense firms as they explain more than 50 percent of the observed adoption of AI across Europe. The clustering of human capital is very persistent over time and those that lag in human capital now will weigh down Europe’s ability in generating AI-related growth in the future. This will likely have long-lasting effects for Europe as a whole, defining its capacity to catch up to the global frontier or amplifying the region’s slow-moving growth and productivity trend. Policy makers who are serious about creating growth in the future on the back of AI should therefore invest in human capital now, or else Europe will further fall behind.
Topic:
European Union, Economic Growth, Human Capital, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Europe

22. Corking Russian Gas: Global Economic and Political Ramifications

Author:
Scott Semet
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Awarm winter in 2022–2023, a purposive decline in consumption that caused the economy to cool, and frantic efforts to attract supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) obscured Europe’s enduring reliance on cheap Russian gas for economic growth. European winters will not always be warm, and there is not enough LNG to replace Russian gas in the short term. Efforts to wean Europe from Russian gas permanently defy economic logic. Should policymakers choose to do so, it would carry costs not only for Europe but also for the United States and the rest of the world.
Topic:
Gas, Economic Growth, Imports, Energy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and United States of America

23. What Growth Strategies Do Citizens Want? Evidence from a New Survey

Author:
Lucio Baccaro, Bjorn Bremer, and Erik Neimanns
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
While research on the economic characteristics of growth models across countries is now extensive, research on the politics of growth models is still in its infancy, even though governments routinely pursue different strategies to generate growth. In particular, we lack evidence on (1) whether citizens have coherent preferences towards growth strategies, (2) what growth strategies citizens prefer, and (3) what shapes their preferences. We address these questions through a new survey of public opinion in Germany, Italy, Sweden, and the United Kingdom, which exemplify different models. We find that preferences for growth strategies are consistent with other policy preferences and are meaningfully structured by class and retirement status, and to a lesser extent by sector of employment. At the same time, differences across class and sector are small, and a large majority of respondents across countries favor wage-led growth. This suggests there is a “representation gap,” since this particular growth strategy is in crisis everywhere.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Capitalism, Economic Growth, Representation, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

24. Estimating Tax Revenues on Economic Growth for Southeast European Countries

Author:
Luljeta Gllogjani and Esat A. Durguti
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The study aims to identify and empirically analyze the impact of direct tax and indirect tax revenues on economic growth in the transition countries of Southeast Europe, based on panel data for the period 2005-2019. Factors that are included in the study as independent variables are direct tax and indirect tax revenues. In contrast, the dependent variable is defined as the annual GDP growth in percentage, an indicator of economic growth. The econometric approach is OLS regression analysis, random effects regression, and fixed effects regression. The model’s reliability has been tested by applying diagnostic tests, such as autocorrelation, normal distribution, and heteroscedasticity. Moreover, the result of the Breusch and Pagan Lagrangian multiplier and Hausman test suggests that the adequate model is a regression with fixed effects. Therefore, the findings with a regression with fixed effects confirm that the revenues from indirect taxes resulted in a positive and statistically significant effect. In contrast, direct tax revenues did not significantly affect economic growth but resulted in a positive sign. The analysis through the econometric model enabled the achievement of the aims set in this paper and the achievement of the final goal, providing observed evidence that the role of tax policy is crucial to encouraging economic growth.
Topic:
Economic Growth, Tax Systems, and Revenue
Political Geography:
Europe and Southeast Europe

25. Privilege, Economy and State in Old Regime France: An Interview with Lewis Wade

Author:
Tehreem Husain and Lewis Wade
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Toynbee Prize Foundation
Abstract:
Dr. Lewis Wade’s new book Privilege, Economy and State in Old Regime France: Marine Insurance, War and the Atlantic Empire under Louis XIV (Boydell and Brewer, 2023) closely analyses the rise and fall of Louis XIV's marine insurance institutions in Paris, which were central to the French monarchy's efforts to stimulate commerce, colonial enterprise and economic growth. The book discusses two leading ministers, Jean-Baptiste Colbert and his son, the Marquis de Seignelay who both recognised that marine insurance was crucial for protecting commercial investment in French maritime endeavours. While Colbert looked to private enterprise to lure capital away from passive investments in state debt towards the marine insurance industry. Seignelay, by contrast, leveraged the tools of privilege on which the French economy was built by creating the first chartered company in the history of marine insurance. The book discusses in detail the overarching system of risk management that lay at the heart of absolutism itself. I was delighted to interview Dr. Wade to dig deeper into his book.
Topic:
History, Economy, Economic Growth, State, Interview, and Capital
Political Geography:
Europe and France

26. Leadership in European Digital Policy: Future Role and Direction for the D9+ Group

Author:
Fredrik Philipp, Philipp Lamprecht, Erik van der Marel, Vanika Sharma, and Elena Sisto
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
In this paper, we will discuss how Europe makes digital policy and how its digital economic performance can be improved. The focus is on the D9+ initiative. Launched in 2016 on the initiative of former Swedish trade minister, Ann Linde, nine countries with a particular interest in matters of the digital economy met to learn from each other and seek common ground on policy issues. On occasions, the D9+ Group has issued joint statements relating to regulatory initiatives in the EU. Since its founding, the group has expanded, and now also includes “guest countries”, but it remains fundamentally an initiative of small and mid-sized open-oriented economies with a strong interest to exploit the economic power of digitalisation and new emerging technologies. The D9+ initiative is important and this paper argues that its work should expand and focus on expanding the scale and scope of digital technological change in the European economy while addressing risks that an over-powering regulatory approach to digital policies in Europe reduces the benefits of the digital transformation. Importantly, the D9+ Group has a special interest to promote digital openness and avoid the agenda for technology sovereignty and strategic autonomy sliding into digital protectionism. Finding the right direction of policy is of fundamental importance for Europe’s long-run economic growth, and the D9+ Group should take a leadership role.
Topic:
Digital Economy, Leadership, Economic Growth, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

27. Demography, Capital Accumulation and Growth

Author:
Robert Stehrer and Maryna Tverdostup
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
Europe will be challenged by demographic changes over the next few decades, even under favourable assumptions about fertility and migration, but the economic effects are not yet fully understood. This paper studies the effects of population ageing on economic growth, capital deepening and robotisation in 27 European Union (EU) labour markets. First, we econometrically assess the effects of ageing and potential labour market shortages on growth. Second, we test the hypothesis of whether ageing leads to faster adoption of new technologies. We distinguish between various capital asset types, including non-ICT and ICT capital, tangible and intangible capital and the adoption of robots. The analysis is based on Eurostat, the European Labour Force Survey (EU-LFS) and International Federation of Robotics (IFR) data. Results indicate that ageing and demographic changes might contribute to secular stagnation, which decelerates the adoption of new technologies.
Topic:
Science and Technology, European Union, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Aging, Labor Market, and Capital Accumulation
Political Geography:
Europe

28. Different Choices, Divergent Paths: Poland and Ukraine

Author:
Thorvaldur Gylfason, Eduard Hochreiter, and Tadeusz Kowalski
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
We compare the economic growth trajectories of Poland and Ukraine since 1990 to try to understand the extent to which the observed growth differentials can be traced to increased efficiency in the use of capital and other factors (intensive growth), rather than to simple accumulation of capital (extensive growth). We stress the role of qualitative factors such as education, governance and institutions. We ask whether the EU perspective and NATO membership played a role. We discuss the closely related histories of the two countries and note the stark differences between them, including their different approaches to the EU vs Russia, full vs incomplete transition to a market economy, and democracy vs anocracy, as well as different initial conditions. We compare key determinants of growth and growth trajectories, using economic as well as social indicators, and trying to disentangle efficiency and accumulation and combine path dependence and the role and scope of creative destruction. While Poland had the shortest and mildest transformation recession among CEE countries, Ukraine has been stagnant, or in decline, since 1990. The statistics we report and the stories we tell suggest that both countries have a complex relationship with democracy and that the nearly threefold difference in per capita GDP at PPP in 2021 in Poland’s favour, with the ratio of investment to GDP similar in both countries, can most plausibly be traced to: (a) Poland’s more extensive and diversified exports, and fewer restrictions on trade, in addition to more comprehensive and quicker restructuring of the national economy inspired by the EU perspective; (b) Poland’s more extensive and better-quality education; (c) Poland’s greater democracy and longer experience of democracy, lower levels of corruption, better governance, and freer press; (d) Poland’s smaller agricultural sector and greater emphasis on manufacturing; and (e) Poland’s lower inflation and higher level of financial development. Furthermore, Poland built market-friendly institutions to EU specifications and joined NATO. Against all this, Ukraine had more economic equality and lower unemployment as well as, from the early 1990s, a lower initial level of income per person, but was hampered by political divisions, path-dependent corruption and poor governance. During the global Covid-19 pandemic, Ukraine apparently suffered fewer deaths than Poland, despite fewer vaccinations.
Topic:
Economics, Education, Governance, Reform, European Union, Economic Growth, Inflation, Exports, Transition, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Poland

29. Economic and Social Impacts of FDI in Central, East and Southeast Europe

Author:
Doris Hanzl-Weiss and Branimir Jovanovic
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This study assesses the economic and social impacts of foreign direct investment (FDI) in 17 economies in Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE). More precisely, we investigate how different FDI inflows have affected various economic and social indicators, such as GDP growth, labour market outcomes, and poverty and inequality, for the period since the fall of communism until 2020. We pay particular attention to FDI that originates from the EU, as well as FDI from Germany and Austria, in order to evaluate whether their effects are different from the effects of FDI from other places of origin. We also examine whether there are differences in the impacts of different types of FDI – equity capital, reinvested earnings and intra-company debt, as well as of FDI that goes to different sectors of the economy – the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors. We find that FDI inflows have had, in general, a positive effect on economic growth in CESEE, and that this effect has been particularly strong for German and Austrian FDI. For total FDI, higher inflows of 1 percentage point (pp) of GDP are associated with 0.19 pp higher GDP growth. For FDI from Germany and Austria, this effect is five times higher – FDI inflows of 1 pp of GDP have led to 0.9 pp higher GDP growth. The positive GDP effects have come from the higher consumption and exports that the FDI has induced. FDI inflows have also reduced unemployment and increased wages, but have had no effects on labour productivity. Total FDI has had only limited effects on inequality and poverty, but FDI from Germany and Austria has been found to reduce both inequality and poverty, likely because they have benefitted mainly lower-income persons. There are differences in the effects of the different types of FDI, with reinvested earnings and equity capital having in general more beneficial effects than intra-company loans. Also, FDI in different sectors of the economy has had different effects, with inflows to the secondary and tertiary sectors having greater effects than inflows to the primary sector. The policy implications of these results are that CESEE economies should not give up on their efforts to attract more FDI, but also that their endeavours should be more targeted, focusing on investments that have greater economic and social impacts. Moreover, foreign investment should not be criticised for the perhaps unsatisfactory economic and social performances of the economies from this region. Instead, the reasons for this should be sought in domestic factors and in the modest growth of the European Union during the past two decades.
Topic:
Development, International Trade and Finance, Poverty, Foreign Direct Investment, Inequality, Economic Growth, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, Germany, and Austria

30. Istanbul Journal of Economics: Volume 72 Issue 2

Author:
Gökhan Karabulut
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
Istanbul Journal of Economics-İstanbul İktisat Dergisi is an open access, peer-reviewed, scholarly journal published two times a year in June and December. It has been an official publication of Istanbul University Faculty of Economics since 1939. The manuscripts submitted for publication in the journal must be scientific and original work in Turkish or English. Being one of the earliest peer-reviewed academic journals in Turkey in the area of economics, Istanbul Journal of Economics-İstanbul İktisat Dergisi aims to provide a forum for exploring issues in basicly economics and publish both disciplinary and multidisciplinary articles. Economics is the main scope of the journal. However, multidisciplinary and comparative approaches are encouraged as well and articles from various social science areas such as sociology of economics, history, social policy, international relations, financial studies are welcomed in this regard. The target group of the journal consists of academicians, researchers, professionals, students, related professional and academic bodies and institutions.
Topic:
Economics, Islam, Religion, Communications, Natural Resources, Finance, Internet, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Currency, Unemployment, Sustainability, COVID-19, BRICS, Labor Market, Economic Stability, Consumer Behavior, Rent-seeking, Energy, and Wages
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Asia