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41. Parti Socialiste: the end of the cycle – The collapse of the French Socialists and the future prospects of the Left in France

Author:
Nikolas I. Tzimos
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The French Socialist Party (Parti Socialiste – PS), once the main government party of the Left, has been in rapid decline since 2014; since 2017, it has been struggling for its life. Its electorate shrank due to President François Hollande’s poor management and growing political unreliability during his term in office. Signs of internal crisis were evident from the early 21st century. The Socialist Party has been losing traditional social bastions and organizational resources since the 2014 municipal elections. The 2022 presidential elections already appear lost for the Socialist Party. Anne Hidalgo, the mayor of Paris and the Socialist candidate for the presidency, is from the PS’s vast pool of local authority cadres. She was reelected as mayor in harsh times, back in 2020. A predominantly cosmopolitan candidate, Hidalgo has failed to rally the PS’s forces. She is shedding votes towards the Center and the radical Left. The PS is currently experiencing the inversion of the phenomenon of 21 April 2002. To avoid two undesirable candidates in the second round, potential PS voters are “forced” to vote tactically (vote utile) for candidates that are better equipped to get beyond the first round. Can the PS survive if it puts in a good performance in the upcoming parliamentary elections? The French two-round electoral system requires cooperation to secure seats. A new Épinay is necessary, but is it possible?
Topic:
Domestic Politics, History, Political Parties, and Socialism
Political Geography:
Europe and France

42. Who are the populists and how to respond to them: Evidence from mainstream European Parliament parties

Author:
Dimitri A. Sotiropoulos
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The main research questions of this paper are how mainstream European Parliament parties conceptualize populism, and how they respond to the rise of populism. The paper, which has come out of the Horizon 2020 project “Demos”, is based on semi-structured interviews with top officials of non-populist parties in the European Parliament (“Europarties”), such as the ALDE, EPP, the Party of European Socialists and the European Greens. The research technique of the paper is thematic analysis, performed on the responses obtained from the aforementioned interviews. Europarty officials identified populist parties by associating them with core themes such as anti-migration, Euroscepticism, and the tendency to make undeliverable policy promises. As for the effectiveness of anti-populist strategies, the interviewees converged on the idea that the problems posed by populists cannot be ignored and that clear and concrete policy solutions are what mainstream parties need, if they are to defend themselves against the evasive political discourse of populist parties. Non-populist parties in the European Parliament may use three strategies to prevent the rise of populists, namely clashing with, marginalizing, or co-opting the populists. Non-populist parties may prefer to incorporate selected questions raised by the populists into their political agendas, and provide non-populist replies to them. Mainstream parties seem aware that while populists may not win arguments over concrete policy measures, they might win voters’ hearts.
Topic:
Politics, European Union, Populism, Domestic Politics, and European Parliament
Political Geography:
Europe

43. Designing Sanctions: Lessons from EU Restrictive Measures against Belarus

Author:
Yuliya Miadzvetskaya
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
The effectiveness and impact of sanctions are predetermined by how they are designed. This paper looks at the different elements in the design of European Union sanctions on Belarus in its different stages, their main pitfalls, and their potential effects on the country and its citizens. Several key elements are important for the design of sanctions: the triggering situation, the type of sanctions, the clarity of objectives and targets, the evidence for listings, and the conditions for review. They are crucial for explaining the mismatch between the objectives of EU sanctions and their limited impact. The gravity of the situation that triggers the introduction of sanctions is closely linked to the type of restrictive measures that will be chosen by the EU. Threats to EU and regional security as well as to the territorial integrity and sovereignty of its neighbors result in more complex measures, including sectoral economic sanctions, export restrictions, and flight bans. In the case of Belarus, broader economic measures were enacted in response to growing security threats to the EU and its partners. An analysis of EU sanctions on Belarus, including their cyclical nature, suggests that they have been most effective when their objective is limited and achievable. The release of political prisoners, cosmetic reforms to the Electoral Code, and the partial solution of the migration crisis are the most obvious examples of concessions that were made by the Belarusian authorities following the imposition of sanctions. Overly ambitious sanctions objectives limit the EU’s room for maneuver and bargaining. Bringing to justice those responsible for forced disappearances and human-rights violations or holding new free and fair elections are inacceptable demands for the Belarusian regime because they endanger its survival as it relies on the law-enforcement institutions. The effects of sanctions also depend on whom can be added on sanctions lists. Listing or designation criteria define conditions under which someone can be targeted. Those for Belarus were significantly updated in 2021 and now target those responsible for violations of human rights and election falsification, entities and persons benefitting from the regime, and those responsible for the forced landing of a Ryanair plane, the instrumentalization of the migration crisis, and Belarus’s involvement in Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. The broadening of the listing criteria increases the sanctioning power of the EU and paves the way for the extension of sanctions listings. The EU enacts sanctions by providing a statement of reasons that must come under the listing criteria and be substantiated with sufficient evidence for each listing. Based on EU sanctions-related case law, sanctions are designed in a way that takes into consideration the due-process rights of targeted individuals and entities. The EU Council has deployed a degree of legal gymnastics in crafting its sanctions on Belarus to increase their traction, notably by using the broad concepts of “support” for and “benefit” from the regime’s actions. Conditions for the review of sanctions are construed as requirements addressed to the targeted state. The fulfillment of these or some variation in the behavior of the target could trigger the partial suspension or the lifting of restrictive measures. Those conditions in EU sanctions against Belarus are sometimes included in EU legal acts and sometimes in other political statements. Clear-cut conditions for reviewing sanctions would help in improving their effects. The paper concludes with suggestions regarding the EU sanctions policy toward Belarus, notably with respect to national bias and to the need for a proper prior impact assessment, realistic objectives, clear communication, and more leverage for the EU.
Topic:
Sanctions, European Union, Domestic Politics, and Society
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Belarus

44. What Next after the Death of Queen Elizabeth II?

Author:
Przemysław Biskup
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The death of Elizabeth II on 8 September closed her 70-year reign. In that time, the United Kingdom underwent deep transformation, including losing its colonial empire, as well as joining and later leaving European integration structures. The succession to the throne may contribute to a further weakening of the UK’s personal union with the 14 Commonwealth monarchies and the British role in this structure. The queen’s passing has also increased the risk of strengthening of separatist movements in Northern Ireland, Wales, and Scotland.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Separatism, and Monarchy
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and British Commonwealth

45. Right-Wing Coalition Wins Parliamentary Elections in Italy

Author:
Łukasz Maślanka
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The elections to Italy’s Chamber of Deputies and Senate on 25 September were won by the Centre-Right coalition led by the Brothers of Italy (FdI) party headed by Giorgia Meloni. The winning party’s won over voters by its decision to remain in opposition to the government of Mario Draghi, which was supported by all other parties. The right-wing’s victory was also facilitated by the inability of the Democratic Party (PD) and the 5 Star Movement (M5S) to form a coalition, which split the votes of left-wing voters. The biggest challenge for the FdI-led coalition will be to simultaneously maintain the support of the voters, good relations with the EU, and the confidence of the financial markets.
Topic:
European Union, Domestic Politics, Political Parties, Right-Wing Politics, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

46. The defeat of Russia in Ukraine will herald the defeat of the Lukashenko regime.

Author:
Svetlana Tikhanovskaia
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
What is the domestic political situation in Belarus? Has the government been weakened by its brutal and incessant repression? How is the population responding? The government has been weakened by the protest movement of the Belarusian population. It has chosen the path of repression instead of meeting the demands of the people and holding fair elections. It has been weakened. The government now has a very small toolbox. Only repression remains. Any easing in its stance will be a signal for people to launch further protests, even bigger than before. Because life has not improved. When you are at war with your own people all the time, your position is a weak one. And the gains here for the so-called government are not visible.
Topic:
Democratization, Authoritarianism, European Union, Domestic Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Belarus

47. Digital Sovereignty Review of Macron’s Term and Debates in the 2022 Presidential Campaign

Author:
Alice Pannier
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
One month before the French presidential election, this briefing assesses the actions undertaken during Macron's term as well as the presidential candidates' proposals concerning France's digital sovereignty. Emmanuel Macron’s five-year term has been characterized by notable efforts to reinforce French digital sovereignty through regulation, securing industries and infrastructures, and supporting strategic sectors. The candidates running for the 2022 presidential election tend to also adopt a maximalist view of sovereignty, which in the digital domain is not limited to data protection, but also includes an industrial component. While all the candidates denounce the current government’s policy on cloud computing, their other proposals in the digital domain are generally in line with the action taken since 2017. However, the weakness of the candidates’ proposals on the international dimension of technology is problematic, at a time when partners and rivals are articulating their foreign policies around these issues, with significant effects on Europe’s efforts toward digital sovereignty.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Emmanuel Macron, Presidential Elections, and Digital Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Europe and France

48. Time for Fresh Thinking on Northern Ireland and Brexit

Author:
David Henig
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
The Good Friday / Belfast Agreement became, with considerable efforts over several years from so many involved, a broadly accepted if never fully stable political framework for Northern Ireland. A year after implementation, the prospect of the Northern Ireland Protocol delivering similar results is diminishing. Instead, there is a risk it entrenches divisions in which all sides believe others, not themselves, must be the ones to compromise most. Such divisions around the Protocol have spread beyond the land and sea borders of Northern Ireland, increasingly overshadowing relationships between the UK and the EU, and the UK and the US. These are not in any of their wider interests. Talk of trade wars in Europe cannot strengthen any economy, while the UK’s diplomatic relationships with the US remain strained. Finding unity on huge questions like Russia-Ukraine becomes harder against this backdrop. To varying degrees, all of the parties involved in the Northern Ireland Protocol discussions were involved in reaching the 1998 Agreement that ended the 30-year period known as ‘the troubles’. Drawing on the lessons from that time and the arrangements they put in place, there is a need for a new political process, outside of technical discussions on trade matters within the Protocol. A new shared endeavour is needed to resolve what otherwise threatens to be a long and damaging Northern Ireland and Brexit stalemate.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Brexit, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Northern Ireland

49. French Politics after the Second Round of Parliamentary Elections

Author:
Amanda Dziubińska
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
President Emmanuel Macron’s coalition fell well short of an absolute majority in the National Assembly (289 required of the chamber’s 577 seats). For both radical right-wing and left-wing voters, the limitation of the president’s power was of more importance than ideological differences. As a result, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally saw an unprecedented result, becoming the main opposition party. In the most likely scenario of a coalition with Republicans or moderate left and right politicians, the presidential camp, as the greatest political force in the Assembly, will seek to continue the current foreign policy and retain its representatives in key ministries.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, Emmanuel Macron, and Parliament
Political Geography:
Europe and France

50. Germany in the Shadow of War and Inflation: Six Months of the Scholz Government

Author:
Łukasz Jasiński
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The coalition of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), The Greens, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) came to power with the intention of undertaking significant economic and social reforms. Their ambitious plans were symbolised by the title of the coalition agreement, “Daring to Make More Progress”. The war in Ukraine, though, has forced the government to take revolutionary steps in the areas of defence and energy security. The Chancellor’s vagueness about the supply of weapons to Ukraine has been causing his SPD’s ratings to fall and The Greens’ popularity to rise. To reverse this trend, the chancellor will pursue further social reforms.
Topic:
Government, War, Domestic Politics, Inflation, and Olaf Scholz
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Germany