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21. The Normalization of Political Violence and the 2023 Legislative Elections in Greece

Author:
Niki Papadogiannaki and Vicky Yiagopoulou
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
Elections in Greece come less than three months after the deadly head-on train collision at Tempe in the north of the country that killed 57 passengers. The incident on 28 February triggered demonstrations against the government of Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, chastising him for initially blaming the collision on “tragic human error.”1 The unrest that followed caused the government to delay announcing the election date, which had been anticipated in April. Due to a new voting law, the elections will be held under a proportional representation system, wherein the leading party needs to secure at least 46% to have a chance to win absolute majority in parliament. However, this percentage has not been reached in the last three decades,2 making a clear victory on 21 May unlikely.
Topic:
Political Violence, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Protests
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

22. France’s Foreign Policy towards Lebanon and its Discontents

Author:
Fadi Nicholas Nassar
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
The pair focus on the current state of affairs in Lebanon, historical trends in French policy towards the country and the region, and more in the latest episode of Middle East Focus.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, History, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, France, and Lebanon

23. Factsheet: Friedrich Merz

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Friedrich Merz is a German politician. In 2022, he became the leader of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and leader of the CDU parliamentary group in the German federal parliament, the Bundestag. He has made anti-Muslim comments and represents the conservative right-wing camp within his party.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Islamophobia, and Friedrich Merz
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

24. Factsheet: Sigrid Herrmann-Marschall

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Sigrid Herrmann-Marschall is a widely quoted German blogger, who is often invited as an expert on Islamism. She regularly argues that the government needs to take stricter measures to tackle Islamism in German society. She frequently lectures, trains, and publishes in a variety of newspapers and is referenced as an expert by many political parties including the far-right. More recently, she reportedly served as an expert on behalf of the far-right party, Alternative for Germany (AfD).
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Islamophobia, Far Right, Islamism, and Sigrid Herrmann-Marschall
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

25. Factsheet: Nina Scholz

Author:
Nina Scholz
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Nina Scholz is a German political commentator and writer on Islamism based in Vienna, Austria. Scholz is often presented as an expert on Islam and Islamism by the Austrian media and policy circles. She produces many texts with Heiko Heinisch, with whom she served as an expert for Operation Luxor, an unlawful raid targeting the homes of 60 prominent Austrian Muslims, carried out by the Austrian government in 2020.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Islamophobia, and Islamism
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and Austria

26. What majority coalition is possible in Poland following the parliamentary elections on 15 October?

Author:
Corinne Deloy
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
On 8 August, the President of the Republic, Andrzej Duda (PiS), announced that the next parliamentary elections in Poland would be held on 15 October next. The Polish people will be called upon to renew the 460 MPs of the Sejm, the lower house of parliament, and the 100 members of the Senate, the upper house. Poland has been governed since 2015 by the Law and Justice party (PiS). Mateusz Morawiecki has been Prime Minister since 2017. Jaroslaw Kaczynski, a member of the Sejm who is considered to be the country's true leader, recently returned to the government because of divisions and tensions in his camp, according to political scientist Kazimierz Kik. In 2015, the PiS formed the "United Right" coalition with Poland's outgoing justice minister, Zbigniew Ziobro, and a number of independent figures, which is in the running for the 2023 elections. It hopes to win a third term at the head of the country, which would be a first in the history of democratic Poland. PiS can count on a solid electoral base, particularly in the medium-sized towns and villages in the south-east and centre of the country. Civic Platform (PO), the main opposition party led by former Prime Minister (2007-2014) and former President of the European Council (2014-2019) Donald Tusk, appeals to voters in large cities and to people who are tired of the PiS's intransigence, particularly on societal issues, and worried about Poland's isolation on the international stage. According to the opinion poll carried out by the IBRIS/Onet institute on 13 September, the United Right coalition is expected to come out ahead in the elections with 33.3% of the vote, outstripping the Citizens' Coalition, organised around Civic Platform and 3 other parties - Modern, The Greens (Z), Polish Initiative (iPL) - which is expected to win 26.4% of the vote. The Left, which comprises several parties, is expected to come third with 11.1%. The Third Way coalition (Trzecia Droga), which includes two centrist parties (Poland 2050 and the Polish Coalition), is forecast to win 10.2%, just ahead of the Freedom and Independence Confederation, an ultra-nationalist and liberal party, with 11.1%. On the face of it, neither the United Right coalition nor the Citizens' Coalition would be able to secure an absolute majority in the Sejm. There is a very real risk that the parliamentary ballot will result in a "hung parliament", as was the case after the elections on 25 October 2015, which led to new parliamentary vote being held in 2017. Inflation and the cost of living are the most important issues for the majority of Poles (35%), followed by national security (22%).
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, Political Parties, and Parliament
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

27. One year of the Meloni government: a tortuous but determined path towards Europe

Author:
Lorenzo Castellani
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The first year of the Meloni government has revealed a complex political picture: elements of the nationalist right and centrist and also moderate tendencies have intertwined. The coalition that governs Italy shows its "right side" in policies linked to the family, civil rights and immigration, while its "moderate side" is expressed in international relations, the European sphere and budgetary policies. This political balancing act has created a number of ambiguities. For reasons of state and the quest for consensus, the government walks a tightrope between conservatism and moderation, euroscepticism and integration, identity, and liberalism. But it is difficult to grasp the meaning of these oscillations without understanding the context of the September 2022 elections and the historical context that weighs on the current government. Giorgia Meloni (Fratelli d'Italia, ECR) won thanks to several factors, including some judicious choices on her part and mistakes and divisions on the part of her opponents. However, the victory of the "centre-right" led by Giorgia Meloni was not a plebiscite: it was the victory with the lowest percentage of consensus compared to Silvio Berlusconi, and also the lowest voter turnout. Two fundamental elements played in Giorgia Meloni's favour: the divisions between Enrico Letta's Democratic Party (PD), Giuseppe Conte's 5-Star Movement (M5S) and Matteo Renzi's Centre List; and the erosion of the political credibility of these opponents because of their experience in government, since all three had been Presidents of the Council. Consequently, Giorgia Meloni was able to present herself to the electorate as the only new political offer, the only female politician with her reputation still intact and, of course, the only possible guarantor of post-election stability. It is not so much the issue of conservatism, Euroscepticism and nationalism that has tipped the Italian electorate to the right over the last two years, but a set of conditions inherent to Giorgia Meloni herself. Indeed, the leader of Fratelli d'Italia spent much of the election campaign assuring international observers and the financial markets of her reliability on foreign and economic policy. In many areas (public finances, energy diversification, the recovery plan and the budget), she claimed a degree of continuity with the previous government of national unity chaired by Mario Draghi. In many respects, therefore, the electoral victory of the Right was a "cold" one, resulting from the absence of alternatives, the divisions of its opponents and the lack of political strength of Italy's other leaders. This is the scenario that explains the victory of the centre-right. On the other hand, if we want to understand the reasons for some of the attitudes of the Right in office, we need to look at a more cautious historical dynamic linked both to the political decade that has just passed in Italy and to the political roots of the Right.
Topic:
Nationalism, Domestic Politics, Right-Wing Politics, and Giorgia Meloni
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

28. Marcia Williams: The Life and Times of Baroness Falkender

Author:
Linda McDougall
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
Over a decade before Margaret Thatcher swept to power in May 1979, another woman was running Britain from 10 Downing Street: Marcia Williams, private and political secretary to Harold Wilson. Having worked for Wilson since 1956, Williams became the Prime Minister’s trusted adviser and confidante forming, as the historian Ben Pimlott once described it, ‘the most famous and mysterious partnership in modern political history’. To mark the publication of Marcia Williams: The Life and Times of Baroness Falkender by ‪@BitebackPublishing‬, the ‪@mileendinstitute4300‬ and Tides of History welcomed her biographer, Linda McDougall, to ‪@QMUL‬‪@QMUL‬, where Marcia Field (as she then was) studied History from 1951 to 1954 and was Secretary of the Labour Society. Linda McDougall is a leading journalist, television producer and author of several books on women in politics. In addition to charting Williams’ rise through the Labour Party, Linda examined the assumptions and accusations that were a constant accompaniment to her political career and charted her influence on British politics and policy.
Topic:
Politics, Women, Domestic Politics, Labour Party, and Marcia Williams
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

29. Governing in Hard Times Conference: Final Reflections

Author:
Javier Sajuria, Eunice Goes, Ben Jackson, Karl Pike, and Carys Roberts
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
In this concluding session, a panel of academics and policymakers reflected on the day's proceedings. They tried to draw together the most urgent questions facing the centre-left and Keir Starmer's Labour Party as well as the historical parallels for a party seeking to return to government after such a lengthy spell in opposition. Chair: Dr Javier Sajuria (Reader in Comparative Politics at Queen Mary, University of London) Panel: Professor Eunice Goes (Professor of Politics at Richmond University) Professor Ben Jackson (Professor of Modern History at University College Oxford and Co-Editor of Political Quarterly) Dr Karl Pike (Deputy Director of the Mile End Institute) Carys Roberts (Executive Director of the Institute for Public Policy Research)
Topic:
Governance, Domestic Politics, Labour Party, and Center Left
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

30. Governing in Hard Times Conference: The Climate Emergency and the Green Transition

Author:
Karl Pike, James Meadway, Holly Rowden, and Ryan Jude
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
In light of the IPCC's recent warning that the 1.5 degree target for global warming will be breached by 2028, this panel explored how a centre-left government would tackle the ongoing Climate Emergency. The panellists considered how it might minimise the political and economic blowback to the disruptions of the Green Transition, recent changes to the Labour Party's Green Prosperity Pledge to spend £28bn a year on the transition, and the role that the private sector should - or be encouraged - to play. Chair: Dr Karl Pike (Deputy Director of the Mile End Institute) Panel: Dr James Meadway (Former Director of the Progressive Economy Forum) Holly Rowden (Policy Advisor at Green Alliance UK) Councillor Ryan Jude (Programme Director for the Green Finance Institute and Cabinet Member for Climate Action and Biodiversity at the City of Westminster Council)
Topic:
Climate Change, Government, Domestic Politics, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe