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151. Rome’s moment: Draghi, multilateralism, and Italy’s new strategy

Author:
Teresa Coratella and Arturo Varvelli
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Italy is set to play a defining role in the use of the EU recovery fund, whose success or failure will likely shape European integration for years to come. Under Prime Minister Mario Draghi, the country is focused on dealing with the pandemic while promoting Italian and European interests as president of the G20 and co-chair of COP26. The Draghi government is shifting the priorities of Italian foreign policy towards the European Union, the transatlantic relationship, and multilateralism more broadly. This marks a break with the approaches of the previous two governments, which were intent on partnership with China and Russia. Draghi’s Italy will work primarily alongside other EU member states – particularly on health security, climate, and economic and infrastructure development – but could also act as a bridge between competing great powers. In doing so, Italy has an opportunity to position itself closer to the Franco-German engine and to help construct a multilateral system in which the EU and the US are equal partners.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Multilateralism, Recovery, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

152. Spoiler alert: How Europe can save diplomacy in Libya

Author:
Tarek Megerisi
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Key European states need to make Libya a shared foreign policy priority, and to overcome their competing approaches to the country. Europeans must reinvigorate the UN political track and use it to reinforce a unified national structure rather than entrench competing administrations. They should focus on protecting Europe’s core interests in Libya: sustainably ending the conflict, creating a reliable local partner, and preserving European influence. To make the UN process work, Europeans should take a more hands-on approach to blocking and isolating domestic and international spoilers, refocusing the political track on unifying objectives, and supporting security sector reform. Europeans should also provide stabilisation, technical, and diplomatic support to strengthen Libya’s governance and accountability mechanisms, which are needed to ensure a new government can successfully hold elections in December 2021.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, United Nations, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Europe and Libya

153. Power surge: How the European Green Deal can succeed in Morocco and Tunisia

Author:
Amine Bennis
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
North African countries such as Morocco and Tunisia can help Europe meet its carbon emissions targets and strengthen its position in the face of fierce competition from China for economic and political influence. By encouraging European investment in renewable energy, the European Green Deal can increase local workforce opportunities, promote development, and stabilise migration, enhancing stability in the region. The EU should promote green hydrogen projects in Morocco and Tunisia. These would contribute to its climate neutrality goals and develop both European industrial leadership and local economies. The EU should also promote new electrical interconnections across the Mediterranean, to foster an integrated electricity market. Morocco and Tunisia should become official “Green Partners” of the EU. This would help catalyse joint action and ease those countries’ green transitions – especially that of Tunisia, which is particularly in need of help building additional capacity.
Topic:
Climate Change, Diplomacy, Energy Policy, European Union, Electricity, and Green Deal
Political Geography:
Europe, Morocco, and Tunisia

154. For a New NATO-EU Bargain

Author:
Thierry Tardy
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
NATO and the European Union (EU) are both engaged in a continuous cycle of adaptation, witness in 2021 the NATO 2030 process on the NATO side, and the Strategic Compass on the EU side. These two exercises aim to look forward to how both institutions can better respond to ever-changing risks and threats. One key dimension in this debate is the optimal division of tasks between NATO and the EU, so that what they do together and in a coordinated manner is bigger than what they do separately or in a disorderly way. The issue of NATO-EU cooperation is obviously not new and has been at the heart of the development of the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) since the late 1990s. This ties into at least three levels of debate that pertain to: the relationship and complementarity between the two organizations; the issue of what European states do within NATO; and the broader transatlantic bond. This said, twenty years of debates and inter- institutional cooperation have fallen short of clarifying what the two institutions must do in relation to each other. Most importantly, the NATO-EU conundrum is hampered by a series of never-met objectives and pledges, as well as by frictions on issues such as duplication, overlap, European strategic autonomy and burden-sharing. Against this background, this paper takes stock of these unmet objectives and offers a broad picture of what a division of tasks between NATO and the EU could possibly look like. The analysis is intentionally bold and puts forward a number of proposals that are undeniably contentious. It nonetheless draws on an observation of long-term and more recent trends, and aims at feeding the debate about the future of the two main European security institutions and the way they can interlock better.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

155. TINA for Putin – Or is there an alternative?

Author:
Marc Franco
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
EU Relations with Russia hit the news headlines this week. The visit of EU High Representative Josep Borrell, launched in a constructive spirit, ended up in a diplomatic catastrophe. The Navalny saga and the recent weekly demonstrations all over Russia have been commented on at length in the Western press. What is going on in Russia? How to interpret the recent surge of aggressiveness of theRussianauthorities? Aretheprotestsjusta small hiccup in a stable Putin regime, or is something more going on? To be clear, this is neither the end nor, probably, the beginning of theendofaregime.Buttheeventsarefarfrom insignificant. In this article I look at the ongoing events from three angles: what is the Putin regime up to? What is behind the recent wave of protests? And what are the implications for the EU’s relations with Russia?
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, European Union, Conflict, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

156. The EU-MENA Partnership: Time for a Reset

Author:
Marc Otte
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The storm raging across the Southern Neighbourhood, as the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is also known in European terminology, is not about to subside any time soon. Beyond crisis management, current dysfunctions need a long-term, sustained and transformative approach. That was the spirit of the Barcelona Declaration and the original concept of the European neighbourhood policy. Obviously, it didn’t work as expected. The question is why, and how to put the train back on the tracks.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Middle East, and North Africa

157. Breaking the Law of Opposite Effects: Europe’s Strategic Autonomy and the Revived Transatlantic Partnership

Author:
Iulian Romanyshyn
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The post-Cold War transatlantic relations have been marked by something akin to the law of opposite effects. When the relationship is vibrant, Europe’s defence cooperation stagnates. When the relationship is in trouble, Europeans pull themselves together to advance their security and defence interests. During the Clinton presidency, Europeans comfortably outsourced military crisis management in the Balkans to Washington. In contrast, a major transatlantic rift over the Iraq war during the Bush administration triggered the adoption of the European Security Strategy and a bulk of EU military operations under the banner of the European Security and Defence Policy. EU-US relations were back on an even keel during the Obama era, the time when Europeans haphazardly reduced their defence budgets and lost a great share of their military capabilities. Enter Donald Trump. During the deepest crisis of confidence among transatlantic allies in decades, Europeans re-energized their defence integration with a set of new initiatives, such as permanent structured cooperation (PESCO) and the European Defence Fund (EDF). It is therefore somewhat logical and far from unexpected that when Joe Biden emerged as the winner of the 2020 US presidential elections, there is yet again a heightened risk that Europeans would fall back into a lazy, self-defeating mindset of dependency on the US military shield. Breaking this pattern of reverse effects and avoiding European complacency is crucial for a healthy transatlantic partnership, but it requires concerted efforts on both sides of the Atlantic.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, European Union, Transatlantic Relations, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

158. The EU and Russia: A New Foreign Policy for the “Carcass”?

Author:
Marc Franco
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Without any irony: the decision of High Representative (HR) Borrell to go to Moscow in early February was courageous and correct. The discussion on EU-Russia relations at the Foreign Affairs Council (FAC) of 22 February and the conclusions of that meeting were a success. But that does not mean that the EU should not drastically improve its foreign policy game.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, European Union, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

159. The external representation of the EU: A simple matter of protocol?

Author:
Francois Roux
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
“Sofagate” has brutally disclosed the internal divergences within the EU in the field of its external relations. Some tried to minimize this unfortunate incident as a mere breach of diplomatic protocol. However, several elements lead us to think that the issue at stake is a very political matter: the division of power between the President ofthe EU Commission and the President of the European Council concerning the external representation ofthe EU. Tensions between both presidents were predictable and identified as soon as the Lisbon Treaty came into force (see premonitory analysis written by Professor 1 NikiAloupiin2010) .The ambivalent language of the Lisbon treaty seems to be the main source of these tensions which had, until now, been contained. On 6 of April 2021, these misgivings became public as pictures of the Ankara meeting, amplified by social media, went viral. Considering the complex relationship between institutions and Member states as well as the harsh criticism from Euro sceptical populists, an institutional quarrel is the last thing the EU needs in these COVID-19 times. This awkward dispute undermines the ambitions for an efficient and coherent European foreign policy. This article focuses solely on the impact ofthe incident on the internal structure of the EU’s external representation. It provides an analysis of the dysfunction, why it happened, and how it could be fixed. This paper does not comment on the role of Turkish authorities or any other aspect of the “sofagate”.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Europe

160. A New Start for EU-US relations?

Author:
Jim Cloos
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The election of President Biden was greeted by sighs of relief across Europe and offered the promise of a renewed relationship. The first hundred days in the office have been impressive. The tone vis-à-vis the EU has changed radically. New perspectives of cooperation are opening up, as set out in the Commission’s December communication on “EU-US: A new transatlantic agenda for global change”. For this to be fruitful two conditions need to be met. The first and most important one is linked to the capacity of the EU to deliver and to do what it takes to be a credible and strong partner. In this sense the future of the transatlantic partnership depends more on the European side than the American one. America is a super power and will remain one. And super powers only listen to other powers that are serious. But there is also a need for changes on the U.S side. The quiet assumption, so prevalent in the U.S, that it is natural for it to lead on all major issues and for the Europeans to follow will not stand up to the requirements of today. A strong partner can and will at times have different views and even different interests and should be allowed to defend them without being accused of jeopardizing the relationship.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America