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11. Will the EU’s positive agenda on Turkey amount to anything more than wishful thinking?

Author:
Amanda Paul
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
One year on, it remains to be seen whether the EU’s positive agenda (PA), an effort to establish a new modus vivendi with Turkey, will bear fruit. Turkey is one of the EU’s most important neighbours and a crucial partner on numerous issues, including migration, counterterrorism, energy and trade. Yet relations have always been challenging, with honeymoon periods few and far between. Bickering and animosity have become the norm. In 2020, escalating disputes in areas from human rights to maritime claims and military interventions brought the relations to a major crisis. Looking ahead, Ankara’s domestic and foreign policy ahead of crucial elections in 2023 (or earlier), the Cyprus problem, Germany’s leadership change, the 2022 French presidential election and Paris taking over the EU Council Presidency will all impact relations. Amanda Paul gives a concise state of play of EU-Turkey relations, what we can expect and what should be avoided, and areas for improvement. While Turkish membership of the EU seems highly unlikely, neither Ankara nor the EU is ready to call it quits. With no functioning accession process, EU–Turkey relations need a new framework that reduces the chances of further rupture and creates a new dynamic. Implementing the PA should be the starting point of this framework. In which case, the EU should consider the following four recommendations: green-light the talks to update the Customs Union; enhance migration dialogue; continue support for Turkish civil society and independent journalism; and revitalise foreign policy dialogue. 2022 will likely be a testing year. If the two parties are to move away from years of distrust and muddling through, they will have to exhibit political will and acquire a truly strategic vision for the future.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Civil Society, Migration, European Union, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Mediterranean

12. Arms Control and Strategic Stability with Russia: The View from Europe

Author:
Jon B. Wolfsthal and Andrea Kendall-Taylor
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:
The United States and its NATO partners have successfully managed the challenge of deterrence and reassurance for generations. The risk of conflict, even nuclear conflict, with Russia remains all too real, especially as political and military competition continues to escalate, and as new technologies and capabilities come online that could further raise the risk of direct military confrontation between the United States and Russia. Ensuring clear, consistent, and constructive communication among officials and experts within the transatlantic security community about the potential dangers posed by Russian behavior, and how to effectively pursue greater stability together, will be essential if the alliance is to remain successful in the decades to come. The following assessment is informed by conversations among such experts committed to that goal. The memo identifies European allies and partners’ views, interests, and concerns about America’s emerging dialogue with Russia on arms control and strategic stability. It is intended to inform U.S. approaches to alliance management and consultation with European allies as well as potential talks and negotiations with the Russian Federation. Although the expert discussions occurred before Russia’s military buildup on Ukraine’s border resumed in October 2021, the insights the working group produced remain relevant so long as the U.S.-Russia arms control and strategic stability dialogue persists.
Topic:
NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Strategic Stability, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, North America, and United States of America

13. Gulf of difference: How Europe can get the Gulf monarchies to pursue peace with Iran

Author:
Cinzia Bianco
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The Gulf monarchies face a core dilemma: advancing their security interests through deterrence or through promoting a new diplomatic process. The arrival of the Biden administration in Washington, and the perception of US disengagement from the region, offers an opportunity for Europeans to help de-escalate tensions between GCC states and Iran. The European interest lies in supporting a return to the Iranian nuclear deal and a regional dialogue between the Gulf monarchies and Iran, an approach that is more likely to promote lasting stability. Europeans can support this process by strengthening their own regional security posture and confronting head-on the geopolitical tensions at the heart of regional rivalries.
Topic:
Security, Regional Cooperation, Gulf Cooperation Council, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Europe, Iran, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

14. In search of commitments: The 2016 refugee summits

Author:
Elizabeth Ferris
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Andrew & Renata Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law at UNSW Sydney
Abstract:
An extraordinary series of meetings took place in 2016 to respond to perceptions of an unprecedented global refugee crisis. This policy brief traces the context and the results of these meetings and explores the common themes that emerged over the course of the year. The meetings examined include: the Supporting Syria and the Region Conference, held in London in February; the High-Level Meeting on Global Responsibility Sharing through Pathways for Admission of Syrian Refugees, held in Geneva in March, the World Humanitarian Summit, held in Istanbul in May; the Summit on Refugees and Migrants, held in New York on 19 September; and the United States (US) Leaders’ Summit, held in New York on 20 September. Although not all these meetings were technically ‘summits’, they all sought to mobilise attendance and commitments at the highest political level, and for this reason are referred to in this policy brief as ‘the summits of 2016.’ Four specific contextual factors set the stage for the summits of 2016. First, the United Nations (UN) had scored major successes in summits focused on development, climate change and disaster risk reduction in 2015. Secondly, the growing carnage in Syria and the inability of the international community to address it was a vivid backdrop to all of the summits. A third and related trend was the dramatic increase in requests for humanitarian funding. Donors had tripled their contributions to humanitarian appeals over a decade – and yet it still was not enough. Finally, the summits took place at a time of political change. The United Nations Secretary-General’s term was coming to an end. There were nasty politics in Europe with the rise of right-wing populist parties and the United Kingdom (UK)’s decision to leave the European Union. Xenophobic politics in the United States had led to a vociferous reaction to the resettlement of Syrian refugees. These all contributed to a sense that the system itself was not fit for purpose.
Topic:
Migration, United Nations, Refugee Crisis, Dialogue, and Protection
Political Geography:
Europe, Syria, Global Focus, and United States of America

15. Kosovo Security Barometer Special Edition Public Perceptions on Kosovo’s Foreign Policy and Political Dialogue with Serbia

Author:
Donika Emini
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
The survey was carried out in the second half of October 2014, through face-to-face interviews conducted around Kosovo. The national sample from which the research was drawn featured 1,101 households, following a representative sample of the population above 18 years old in Kosovo. The ethnic breakdown of the interviewed respondents used for the purposes of this edition of the KSB was: 87.92 percent K-Albanian, 9.08 percent K-Serbian, and 3 percent others (Bosnian 1.0 percent, Turks 1.0 percent, and RAE 1.0 percent). Perceptions presented in this report are a summary of information gathered from respondents and it only demonstrates how people perceive these institutions. Hence, this report does not represent a conclusive assessment of the quality of the work of the institutions subject to this study.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Politics, Public Opinion, Survey, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans

16. Bulgaria and the Balkans in the Common Foreign and Security Policy of the European Union

Author:
Plamen Pantev, Valeri Ratchev, and Venelin Tsachevski
Publication Date:
07-1995
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
Bulgaria's integration in the European Union (EU) became an undoubted strategic objective of the country, forming the basis of a national consensus among the political forces and society in general. The association stage of the integration process implies the beginning of an active, purposeful adaptation of the different branches of national policy to the main directions of EU's common undertakings. This means that the country's foreign relations and national security policy need to adapt to the Common foreign and security policy (CFSP), Common defence policy (CDP) and Common Defence (CD) of EU. A short study cannot cover all essential details about the character, history, formation and implementation of CFSP of EU, as well as specific issues touching certain Bulgarian interests. The Institute for Security and International Studies, recognising the special meaning of the forthcoming Intergovernmental Conference (IGC) in 1996 of EU member states, will carry out three other shorter studies, in addition to the present one. This should help develop a better picture of the following issues: the political dialogue of EU with the associated countries in Central and Eastern Europe (ACCEE); the economic factors of stability on the Balkan peninsula; and Russia's relations with EU and the repercussions for Southeast Europe.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Politics, European Union, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, Bulgaria, and Balkans