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362. Soft security problems in Northwest Russia and their implications for the outside world. A framework for analysis and action
- Author:
- Christer Pursiainen, Pekka Haavisto, and Nikita Lomagin
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Ten years after the end of the Cold War, the traditional security dilemma based on the perception of a military threat between Russia and the West has largely given way to a variety of new challenges related to non-military security, so-called soft security threats. These threats are not merely problems internal to Russia, but constitute existing or potential problems for other countries as well.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
363. Revising the Two-Major Theater War Standard
- Author:
- Hans Binnendijk and Richard L. Kugler
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- One of the toughest challenges facing the Department of Defense (DOD) is translating strategic policy into concrete guidelines for preparing U.S. military forces. A defense planning standard is a set of judgments and directives for performing this key function. Normally this standard has three associated roles: to determine the size of forces and their main missions; to establish program and budgetary priorities; and to inform the Congress and the public of the rationale behind the defense strategy and force posture. For example, the Kennedy administration standard was a two and one-half war strategy, and the Nixon administration had a one and one-half war strategy. To guide its planning, the Carter administration used the standard of multitheater war with the Soviet Union in Europe and the Persian Gulf. The Reagan administration applied an Illustrative Planning Scenario that contemplated global war with the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact
- Topic:
- Security and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
364. Renovating U.S. Strategic Arms Control Policy
- Author:
- Richard D. Sokolsky
- Publication Date:
- 02-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- There has been a tectonic shift in the strategic landscape since the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) negotiations concluded in the early 1990s. The Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact are defunct. America and Russia are no longer enemies and the nuclear arms race between the two countries is, for all intents and purposes, over. The threat of a surprise nuclear attack has all but vanished along with any plausible scenario between the two countries that could escalate to a nuclear war. The strategic warning time for reconstitution of a credible conventional military threat to Europe can now be measured in years. The likelihood that Russia could marshal the economic resources for clandestine production of new nuclear weapon systems on a militarily significant scale is extremely remote. The most serious security threats emanating from Russia today—poorly safeguarded nuclear warheads and materials and the potential proliferation of such material and expertise to states of concern—reflect profound weakness. Simply put, the proliferation risks attendant to a Russia in the throes of a long-term structural crisis are a far more serious security threat than SS–18 heavy missiles destroying U.S. intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in a preemptive first strike.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, and Europe
365. The Strategic Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran
- Author:
- Judith S. Yaphe and Kori N. Schake
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Scholars and other spcialists on Iran have argued about that country's political intentions and strategic amibitions since the overthrow of Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi and the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979. In the 1980s Iran's efforts to export its revolution and support international terrorism raised the question of whether a moderate Islamic republic that was able to deal with the West could ever exist. The death of the Ayatollah Khomeini in 1989 and the succession of Ali Hashimi-Rafsanjani as president raised new issues for the 1990s. As the European and American oil and investment communities considered the race to open Iran commercially, scholars and diplomats debated Iranian efforts to recover from nearly a decade of war and revolution. They compared the merits of the European approach of initiating critical dialogue with the U.S. policy of containing and isolating Iran. Neither approach seemed to have much impact, both conceded, and Iranians continued to sort out their domestic political agenda and to decide how best to protect their strategic and national interests. The U.S. Government, for example, tried to estimate how much time and money Iran would need to modernize its military and to acquire new weapons systems despite projected low oil prices and the country's need to rebuild its damaged and neglected civilian and industrial infrastructure.1 The assumption underlying the U.S. projections was that Iran would be pursuing weapons of mass destruction, especially nuclear technology and longrange missile systems.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, International Law, Nuclear Weapons, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Iran, and Middle East
366. Terrorism: Threat and Responses
- Author:
- Jean-Louis Bruguière
- Publication Date:
- 10-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Along with the highly developed forms of organized crime, can terrorism be ranked in the category of the tough challenges which the world has to face? This question is worth asking, as too often the perception of that threat is a faint one.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Europe
367. The European Union as a Security Actor in the Mediterranean
- Author:
- Fred Tanner and Joanna Schemm
- Publication Date:
- 10-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- The publication of the proceedings of the GCSP workshop on the European Union and the Mediterranean is timely in more ways than one. First of all, the sudden emergence of European Security and Defence Policy from 1999 onwards has generated the need to examine the security and defence dimension of the Euro-Mediterranean partnership. The partnership was obviously not established in connection with ESDP in mind – if only because ESDP did not exist yet at the time of the launching of the Barcelona process – but the Barcelona process clearly has security and defence implications and ESDP necessarily has a Mediterranean dimension. Secondly, and more tentatively, the ESDP is likely to increase its focus on the Mediterranean as the wars of succession in the former Socialist Federation of Yugoslavia are progressively brought to a close. Not unnaturally, the conflicts which have worked their way down the length of post-Tito Yugoslavia from Slovenia in June 1991 to Macedonia ten years later, have been the foremost security and defence concern of the members of the European Union. These wars have not yet played themselves out, as events in Macedonia demonstrate; nor is it likely that European forces deployed in Bosnia and Kosovo will be withdrawn anytime soon. By the time the ESDP Rapid Reaction Force is ready in 2003, the European strategic spotlight may well have shifted from the Balkan doorstep to the broader Mediterranean arena. Thirdly, a number of substantial material changes are due to occur within the European Union during the next two to four years. At the military end of the spectrum, we have the 2003 goal for the Rapid Reaction Force, for which a strategic rationale will need to be found above and beyond the important but exceedingly vague statement that it is supposed to fulfil the Petersberg tasks, “including the most demanding” to use official European Council language. In institutional terms, the EU is preparing itself for the rendez-vous of 2004, which may or may not be a constitutional convention. Given the widely recognised need to give greater clarity and accountability to the EU's institutions – and this is a requirement which appears to be shared by Europhiles and Euroskeptics alike – chances are that this will not simply be an inter-governmental conference of the sort which led to the Amsterdam and Nice treaties. And then, of course, we have enlargement, which in EU terms will not only mesh in with the institutional debate, but which will also broaden the cast of players involved in the Euro-Med process. This applies even more to NATO enlargement: with something akin to a “Big Bang” beginning to take shape as NATO's current members prepare for the 2002 Prague Summit, countries such as Romania and Bulgaria will give a greater “Southern” tilt to the Alliance, before joining the European Union at a subsequent stage.
- Topic:
- Security and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe
368. The Rapid Reaction Force: The EU takes stock
- Author:
- Catriona Gourlay, Jamie Woodbridge, Lorraine Mullally, Annalisa Monaco, and Natalie Pauwels
- Publication Date:
- 12-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Security Information Service
- Abstract:
- On 19 November EU Foreign and Defence Ministers gathered in Brussels for the Capability Improvement Conference (CIC) to assess progress made in filling the capability gaps to meet the Helsinki Headline Goal (being able to deploy 60 000 men in less than 60 days and to sustain them for at least one year). The CIC confirmed that the EU should be able to carry out the whole range of crisis management tasks by 2003, but cautioned that further efforts must be made if it is to be able to carry out complex operations without undue risk. In response to the shortcomings identified, Member States have agreed on a European Capability Action Plan to gradually advance national and multinational solutions.
- Topic:
- Security and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe
369. The EU takes on Terrorism
- Author:
- Marta Martinelli, Catriona Gourlay, Lorraine Mullally, Sibylle Bauer, and Natalie Pauwels
- Publication Date:
- 10-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Security Information Service
- Abstract:
- The terrorist attacks on the United States on 11 September have added a sense of urgency to the elaboration of a European Union policy on terrorism, something that had already been in the pipeline for a number of months under the auspices of the Justice and Home Affairs (JHA) Council and the Commission's Directorate- General for JHA. While the immediate policy response of the EU mainly reflected these third pillar initiatives, it is likely that the 11 September attacks will lead to a re-evaluation across the EU policy spectrum. This article outlines some of the areas that could be considered prime candidates for action by the EU as part of its overall counter-terrorism strategy.
- Topic:
- Security and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
370. Europe Moves Forward on its Own Missile Proliferation Agenda
- Author:
- Simon Taylor, Sibylle Bauer, Jens Mosegaard, Sharon Riggle, Thomas Sköld, and Philippe Manigart
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Security Information Service
- Abstract:
- The missile defence debate has gained serious momentum in Europe since US President George W. Bush took office in January 2001. Reactions in Europe to US missile defence plans have been negative, ranging from scepticism to outrage, with a slight softening of positions in recent weeks .The EU has had no common position on the issue but has now reconfirmed its commitment to multilateral solutions to the threat of missile proliferation with a declaration which aims to reinforce preventive regimes.
- Topic:
- Security and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe