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11. Breaking the Cycle: The Need for Better Integrated Responses in Neglected Crises

Author:
Edouard Rodier and Thierry-Mehdi Benlahsen
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The magnitude of the humanitarian funding gap soars each year, leaving an increasing number of people with no assistance. In 2023, only 35% of the $56bn global appeal was covered, and anticipated budget cuts from major humanitarian donors will likely worsen the situation. Neglected crises that do not receive enough media attention and political support struggle to attract financial assistance at scale for humanitarian, development, peace, or climate initiatives. Following up on the EU Council’s Conclusion from May 2023, which emphasised the importance of reducing humanitarian needs by strengthening the connection between humanitarian, development, and peace efforts (HDP nexus), this paper suggests examining how well the nexus is applied in overlooked and neglected areas. It proposes to take advantage of the 2024 EU election year to explore new approaches to the current model and makes concrete suggestions to support better coordinated and integrated responses.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, European Union, Crisis Management, and Donors
Political Geography:
Europe

12. An Edifying Tale of Keeping the Lights On: Societal Resilience in an Energy Crisis – the Case of Estonia

Author:
Tomas Jermalavicius, Dmitri Teperik, and Karolin Martinson
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
In 2021–23, Europe experienced a major energy shock due to a number of significant factors in the energy market. As a result of Russia’s strategy to take advantage of Europe’s dependency on its energy supply and coerce the EU into acquiescence to Russia’s geopolitical demands, the most important course-changing trigger has been the Russian war against Ukraine. A raft of urgent policy measures passed at the EU and national levels, quick adaptation of the consumers to the price signals, the availability of LNG from the US, suppressed demand in China, and a mild winter meant that a full-scale disaster was averted. However, the previous crisis being less severe than anticipated does not mean the next one will be less challenging. Estonian society’s resilience to future energy crises may determine not only the country’s internal political dynamics but also its relations with key partners, its reputation in the EU, and even the country’s long-term geopolitical prospects. In order to understand how well-prepared Estonian society is for such future crises, this study identifies and analyses the key public narratives that emerged during the 2021–23 energy crisis and investigates how they reflected on Estonian society’s perceptions and actions. The narrative analysis is complemented by survey data, which indicates how the Estonian public viewed various aspects of the crisis and its resolution, as well as the extent to which public sentiment echoes or runs counter to the identified narratives. The study highlights several key shortcomings in Estonian society’s resilience capabilities. Firstly, the lack of constructive responsiveness to warnings about plausible severe risks (i.e., power cuts) and low scores on preparedness for future energy crises show that the Estonian society does not have a mindset of crisis preparedness. Secondly, society’s lack of confidence in the government’s ability to successfully navigate such crises has the potential to undermine the relationship of trust and cooperation in similar episodes in the future. Another breakdown in resilience in the response to the energy crisis was related to the failure to maintain a just and equal distribution of risk, vulnerability, and cost. As the narrative related to the profits of the energy companies—especially state-owned ones—shows, the sense of unfair distribution of costs and benefits was pervasive and highly antagonising. As the survey showed, a responsible and competent media, effective government, and an impartial expert community were the most trusted sources of information with respect to coping with the energy crisis. These actors will have to play an important role in rebuilding the confidence lost during the energy crisis, shaping the narratives that inspire steadfast action for forging a better future for energy and climate security, and improving Estonia’s resilience.
Topic:
Crisis Management, Resilience, and Energy Security
Political Geography:
Europe and Estonia

13. NATO at 75: Success Through Adaptation

Author:
Hans Binnendijk
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
Despite multiple crises over its 75-year history, NATO remains the world’s most successful alliance. It has achieved success by continually adapting to changing threats and global conditions. What many see as a weakness – decision making by consensus – has proven to be NATO’s strength. With every member holding a veto, extreme care must be taken to achieve agreed outcomes. This often takes time and an incremental approach. Strong American leadership has been required to avoid excessive delays and least common denominator outcomes. As contentious issues built up over the decades, the alliance has used small leadership groups, 34 summits, countless foreign and defense ministers’ meetings, eight strategic concepts and several special reports to adapt its policies and retain its unity. NATO is now in what might be seen as the fifth phase of its 75-year history. The first two phases were during the Cold War. The third phase was the immediate post-Cold War decade. The fourth concentrated on international terrorism. Today the focus is back on major power competition. NATO’s strategic adaptation since 2014 has continued to be incremental from summit to summit, but the cumulative impact is profound.
Topic:
NATO, Alliance, Crisis Management, and Adaptation
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

14. A Contact Group for Ukraine?

Author:
Walter Kemp
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The high-level Ukraine peace summit hosted by Switzerland on 15 and 16 June underlined the need for finding a path to peace. But thus far, proposals made by several countries, including Ukraine, have not stopped the fighting. Since Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has implications for international peace and security, perhaps it is time to consider the formation of an international contact group to formulate a more coherent approach to de-escalating the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and nudge the parties towards peace. Since the late 1990s it has been common to form international contact groups in times of crisis. Such groups can bolster coordination among different international actors, forge common positions and exert leverage on the parties to reduce tensions. Indeed, in the past 20 or so years (since the beginning of the 21st century) there have been more than 20 such groups. Some of the more high-profile examples include contact groups on the Balkans, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Syria, Afghanistan, Libya, the Great Lakes region of Africa, and for dealing with piracy off the coast of Somalia. These ad hoc coalitions with nonbinding rules are designed to enhance cohesion, cooperation and coordination to improve conflict or crisis management. Considering the seriousness of the war in Ukraine and the fact that many countries have a stake in reducing tensions, it would seem necessary and urgent to form an international contact group on Ukraine.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Crisis Management, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

15. Pretexts for War and the Preinvasion Crisis in Ukraine

Author:
Ron Gurantz
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
The US strategy in the run-up to the invasion of Ukraine appeared to undermine Russian efforts to justify the war. While studies of international crises typically focus on the goals of deterrence and escalation management, recent events in Ukraine show that counterjustification is another important objective. Russia used covert activities and deception to try and create a pretext for its invasion, and the United States aggressively countered these efforts. This monograph presents an exhaustive study of the US military, diplomatic, and informational strategy in the run-up to the invasion of Ukraine and derives lessons about counterjustification that can be applied in future crises. The study should help military officers and government officials develop effective counterjustification tactics.
Topic:
Crisis Management, Deterrence, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

16. The six critical tasks of strategic leaders during crisis: Ensuring safety of stakeholders during COVID-19 pandemic in Poland

Author:
Zdzisław Polcikiewicz, Norbert Świętochowski, and Marek Tomaszycki
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
The authors’ purpose in this article is to present the way in which strategic leaders may use analytical tools to operate during crisis. Their actions is based on the idea of six main tasks, the so-called “Six Makings”, that they have to accomplish. The idea of “critical tasks during crisis was presented on the basis of the COVID-19 situation in Poland and the activities carried out by the Polish government and the Polish Health-care System (Strategic Leaders) to neutralize the negative effects of the pandemic, protect the health and lives of citizens, and care for the economic situation. Qualitative data analysis techniques were used in the research process. The authors concluded that in times of crisis, citizens rely on their leaders and believe that they will ensure their security and a swift return to customary. Strategic leaders must guarantee that the organizations and stakeholders they lead are prepared to counter the future challenges — foreseen and unforeseen alike. The “Six Makings” analytical tool, properly used, could significantly improve the accuracy of decisions made and increase the effectiveness of actions taken.
Topic:
Leadership, Crisis Management, Pandemic, COVID-19, Stakeholders, and Public Safety
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

17. The World After Taiwan’s Fall

Author:
David Santoro, Ralph Cossa, Ian Easton, Malcolm Davis, and Matake Kamiya
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
Let us start with our bottom line: a failure of the United States to come to Taiwan’s aid—politically, economically, and militarily—would devastate the Unites States’ credibility and defense commitments to its allies and partners, not just in Asia, but globally. If the United States tries but fails to prevent a Chinese takeover of Taiwan, the impact could be equally devastating unless there is a concentrated, coordinated U.S. attempt with likeminded allies and partners to halt further Chinese aggression and eventually roll back Beijing’s ill-gotten gains. This is not a hypothetical assessment. Taiwan has been increasingly under the threat of a military takeover by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and, even today, is under attack politically, economically, psychologically, and through so-called “gray zone” military actions short of actual combat. The U.S. government, U.S. allies, and others have begun to pay attention to this problem, yet to this day, they have not sufficiently appreciated the strategic implications that such a takeover would generate. To address this problem, the Pacific Forum has conducted a multi-authored study to raise awareness in Washington, key allied capitals, and beyond about the consequences of a Chinese victory in a war over Taiwan and, more importantly, to drive them to take appropriate action to prevent it. The study, which provides six national perspectives on this question (a U.S., Australian, Japanese, Korean, Indian, and European perspective) and fed its findings and recommendations into the second round of the DTRA SI-STT-sponsored (and Pacific Forum-run) Track 2 “U.S.-Taiwan Deterrence and Defense Dialogue,”[1] outlines these strategic implications in two alternative scenarios. In the first scenario, China attacks Taiwan and it falls with no outside assistance from the United States or others. In the other scenario, Taiwan falls to China despite outside assistance (i.e., “a too little, too late” scenario).
Topic:
Security, Conflict, Crisis Management, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Europe, India, Taiwan, Asia, Korea, and United States of America

18. Diplomacy of Neglect: Assessing the European Union’s engagement in the Sudanese Crisis

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
The European Union aims to strengthen its involvement in the Sudanese crisis. This was recently evident when Brussels welcomed a delegation of Sudanese political leaders on July 27, 2023. This effort aims to establish an active European role in the endeavors to settle the Sudanese crisis.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Sanctions, European Union, Conflict, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Sudan

19. Europe as a power: now or never

Author:
Jean-Paul Palomeros
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
One year already, one year of misfortune for the Ukrainian people, one year of blind violence, of sirens’ blasts, of terror, of exile for some, even of deportation, of grief for many families. One year of systematic destruction of Ukraine's industry, its infrastructure, its energy production centres, part of its agricultural resources, of its economy. One year of oppression in the occupied territories, torture, war crimes, indoctrination, Russification. However, this appraisal is not exhaustive, it cannot take into account the destructuring of Ukrainian society, the reality and the extent of the sacrifices of a young generation of Ukrainians who are paying with their lives for their visceral attachment to their country and its values. But it must be stressed and repeated, for the Ukrainian people and their army it has been a year of struggle, of fierce, often heroic resistance, of resilience, of will to defend a free, democratic Ukraine and to restore its sovereignty.
Topic:
Crisis Management, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe

20. Diplomacy and the War against Ukraine

Author:
Ferdinando Nelli Feroci
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Normally, diplomacy is meant as the set of rules and processes that preside over international relations to prevent or resolve disputes and conflicts, or even as a special skill in dealing with complex issues and finding compromises. If this is the case, one may be tempted to conclude that diplomacy has so far failed with respect to the year-long conflict in Ukraine. But perhaps it is worth analysing the issue more closely.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Crisis Management, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine