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112. Libya Country Report
- Author:
- Andrea Dessì
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- This study on Libya is one of a series of reports prepared within the framework of the EU-LISTCO project, funded under the EU’s Horizon 2020 programme. Libya is a special case within the EU-LISTCO project. It is in the western region of North Africa, bordered by the Mediterranean Sea to the north, Algeria and Tunisia to the west, Chad and Niger to the south, Sudan to the south-east and Egypt to the east. The security and stability of Libya is fundamental for the economic and political future of Europe, particularly in relation to migration, radicalisation and political economy. Because of the NATO-led intervention that brought about the collapse of the Libyan Arab al-Jamahiriyah, the country has now entered an interrelated social, economic and political crisis, and violence has been simmering for the past eight years. While the collapse of the previous government has been beneficial for some, numerous armed political actors now control the Libyan territory, supported and funded by external powers that often have contradictory political agendas. The purpose of this report is to answer the following research questions: what is the background of areas of limited statehood and contested order in Libya?; how and when can areas of limited statehood and contested order in Libya turn into governance breakdown and/or violent conflict, and how can these threats affect the security of the EU?; what are the resilience mechanisms in Libya?
- Topic:
- Security, Governance, Political stability, State, Crisis Management, and Resilience
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, and Libya
113. Civilian Crisis Management: Assessing the Readiness of EU Member States and Institutions
- Author:
- Nicoletta Pirozzi and Francesco Musi
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The civilian dimension of conflict prevention, conflict resolution and post-conflict stabilisation has long been prominent in EU crisis management missions. From 2000 onwards, the EU has developed its monitoring, capacity-building, strategic advice and training tools, deploying a total of 22 civilian missions beyond its borders. Currently, there are 11 active civilian missions, stretching from the Balkans (EULEX Kosovo) to the Middle East (EUBAM Rafah, EUPOL COPPS, EUAM Iraq), from Eastern Europe and Caucasus (EUAM Ukraine, EUMM Georgia) to Africa (EUBAM Libya, EUCAP Sahel Mali, EUCAP Sahel Niger, EUCAP Somalia). Their main tasks include policy reforms on the rule of law, the fight against organised crime and security sector reform.
- Topic:
- Politics, Reform, Budget, Crisis Management, and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Europe and European Union
114. Stress Tests: An insight into crisis scenarios, simulations and exercises
- Author:
- Daniel Fiott
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- Until the arrival of General Norman Schwarzkopf to United States Central Command (CENTCOM) in November 1988, American war planners assumed that the US’ biggest threat in the Middle East would come from a Soviet invasion of Iran. The Soviet Union had been a net exporter of oil until the late 1960s, but in order to meet its own growing industrial and energy demands Moscow looked increasingly to the Middle East and countries such as Iran to bolster its oil reserves. Based on his own reading, however, Schwarzkopf turned this planning assumption on its head and with CENTCOM he worked on a wargame based on an intra-regional conflict between Kuwait, Iraq and Saudi Arabia rather than a Soviet invasion. Apart from the precise details about potential US fatalities (Schwarzkopf and his team believed the US would suffer more casualties than it actually did), the general and his wargamers were right: Iraq eventually invaded and annexed Kuwait in August 1990 and Operation Desert Storm was over before the dissolution of the Soviet Union in December 1991. Schwarzkopf’s wargame had been prophetic in preparing the US military for war with Iraq. Of course, the history of wargaming and scenario planning does not always mirror the success achieved by Schwarzkopf. Companies such as Shell that are famed for their in-house scenario planning departments do have notable periods of success, but the company’s ‘futures branch’ was nearly shut down three times in almost 50 years of scenario planning at the firm because Shell’s leaders saw little value in its work. In some cases, sound scenario planning and the assessments they lead to are not taken seriously enough: for example, vulnerability assessments of the Fukushima nuclear plant showed that there was a risk from natural disasters such as tsunamis but the consequences of these assessments were downplayed. Most of the time, however, crisis scenario planning unfortunately emerges in the wake of a major crisis such as the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 in the US or the global financial crisis of 2007.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, European Union, Crisis Management, Hybrid Threats, and Strategic Planning
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Global Focus
115. CHOOSING AN ETHICAL AND EFFECTIVE RESPONSE TO RUSSIAN AGGRESSION IN UKRAINE
- Author:
- Danielle L. Lupton
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- It’s been over two months since the crisis between Ukraine and Russia escalated with the Kerch Strait incident in November 2018. Since then, the global news media has devoted little attention to the conflict and references to the dispute from senior American and European policy makers have grown increasingly sparse. Despite an immediate public condemnation of Russia’s actions by the EU and NATO, European and American leaders have yet to coordinate a significant response. In short, the reaction has been underwhelming. This is problematic for three reasons. First, Russia’s latest act of aggression has been interpreted by many as a test of Western resolve and America’s commitment to its European allies. A failure to present a united front carries reputational consequences for the United States, the EU, NATO, and other European powers as well as their leaders. Second, the conflict in Ukraine is ongoing and the humanitarian consequences for civilians of this “forgotten” war—not to mention for Ukrainian democracy itself—are dire. Third, a lack of response to such acts of aggression could further embolden Putin, not just in Ukraine, but also in the Baltics and Eastern Europe.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Sanctions, Geopolitics, Ethics, Crisis Management, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
116. Concerns on the issue of defence expenditure in the post-crisis Greece
- Author:
- Odysseus Katsaitis, Konstantine Kondylis, and George Andrew Zombanakis
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Security and Defence Quarterly
- Institution:
- War Studies University
- Abstract:
- The paper aims to tackle a controversial issue, namely the anticipated developments regarding defence expenditure once the Greek economy returns to growth. Such a comeback is expected to occur following a prolonged recessionary period during which defence spending cuts were a top priority, as recommended by the IMF, the ECB and the EC, members of the so-called “Troika”. The paper uses both conventional econometrics as well as neural networks to consider and evaluate the hierarchy’s ordering of the determinants used in such a demand for defence expenditure based on their explanatory power. While the role of property resources is certainly pronounced, as expected, human resources variables also seem to be able to explain defence spending developments, especially in the recent past. A forecasting investigation based on this background points to a number of interesting conclusions on the anticipated developments concerning defence spending in the future as well as on the determinants of such developments which might represent a threat to NATO cohesion.
- Topic:
- Security, Crisis Management, Economic Security, Arms Race, Defense Spending, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Greece
117. What are the implications of the Barcelona-Madrid confrontation?
- Author:
- George Filatov
- Publication Date:
- 01-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Rethinking Russia
- Abstract:
- The Catalonian crisis is far from over. Despite the victory of the Catalonian separatists on the December 21 parliamentary election, there is no clarity about the future of the local government (the Generalitat). It remains to be seen if the incoming government will be able to come up with a compromise with official Madrid.
- Topic:
- Government, Elections, Crisis Management, and Separatism
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Spain, and Barcelona
118. The future of EU civilian crisis management: Finding a niche
- Author:
- Teemu Tammikko and Jyrki Ruohomaki
- Publication Date:
- 05-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- The EU’s Civilian CSDP Compact aims to revitalize an important tool that has been suffering from lack of interest among member states, amid the greater interest in boosting the EU’s defence capabilities instead. Adding scalability and modularity to the Union’s civilian missions should make them more flexible. Expanding the competences of internal security agencies to act externally may increase internal competition over the same resources and lead to overlapping tasks in external action. Despite the momentum for reforming the EU’s key security instruments, there seems to be less interest in reforming the decision-making structures regarding them, which can lead to insufficient coordination and coherence between actors on the ground.
- Topic:
- Security, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- Europe
119. The Greek Crisis and Its Repercussions on the Balkan Neighbourhood: The End of the Myth
- Author:
- Marilena Koppa
- Publication Date:
- 10-2018
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
- Abstract:
- This article explores the role of Greece in the Balkans since the end of Communism and the impact of the sovereign debt crisis that followed. Since the beginning of the 1990s, while Greece failed to accomplish its vocation at the political level, at the level of the economy the country acted as an important regional actor. The article examines the dynamics of the Greek crisis on the Balkan economies and analyses the major challenges for Greece in this new reality. At the same times, it tries to identify the triple crisis faced currently by Greece: at the level of credibility and status, at the level of mediation between the region and the EU and, finally, at the level of the gradual peripherisation of the country.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Migration, European Union, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Greece, and Balkans
120. Integration in the European Union as a Double-Edged Sword for the Western Balkans
- Author:
- Elena Makrevska Disoska
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
- Institution:
- Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
- Abstract:
- By analyzing the impact of the economic crisis on the Western Balkan (WB) countries, the paper concludes that their export, inflow of remittances, and FDI have suffered due to the crisis. Regarding the rapid credit growth in years before the crisis, it spurred an increase in imports, which in the context of relatively uncompetitive economies, led to increased current account deficits despite significant remittances and FDI inflows. The impact of the crisis in the region can be explained mainly by their degree of European integration. But, the European Union (EU) is more uncertain to embrace the economically weaker countries, causing loss of EU credibility. It seems that the EU integration is a double-edged sword for the WB: in good times EU delivers its prosperity, but at a time of crisis, it is creating instability.
- Topic:
- Economics, European Union, Regional Integration, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, and Balkans