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81. Economics of Covid-19 and Brexit, revisited

Author:
Ben Chu, Meredith Crowley, Gemma Tetlow, Thomas Sampson, and Anand Menon
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
At this Isolation Insight webinar, panelists discussed the economics of the Covid-19 pandemic and the UK's exit from the EU, six months after lockdown began and with less than three months left of the transition period. Speakers: Ben Chu, economics editor, The Independent; Meredith Crowley, senior fellow, UK in a Changing Europe; Gemma Tetlow, chief economist, Institute for Government; Thomas Sampson, associate professor, London School of Economics; Chair: Anand Menon, director, UK in a Changing Europe
Topic:
Economics, European Union, Brexit, Transition, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

82. Health in Changing Times

Author:
Paul Darragh, Bernie McCrory, Damien McCallion, Philippa Whitford, Paul Williams, Layla McCay, and Alison Moore
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
This event is part of the ESRC’s Festival of Social Science 2020, which we are organising in partnership with the University of Sheffield, Queen’s University Belfast and Shout Out UK. Speakers will discuss the ‘Brexit, Health and Me’ film, which reports on research by academics following the EU referendum. Speakers are: Dr Paul Darragh, Member of BMA UK Board of Science, BMA UK Council; Bernie McCrory, Chief Officer, Cross Border Health and Social Care, Northern Ireland; Damien McCallion Director General, Cross Border Health and Social Care, Northern Ireland; Dr Philippa Whitford, MP for Central Ayrshire; Dr Paul Williams, former MP for Stockton South 2017-2019; Dr Layla McCay, Director of International Relations, NHS Confederation; Chair: Alison Moore, Correspondent, Health Service Journal
Topic:
Health Care Policy, European Union, Brexit, COVID-19, and National Health Service (NHS)
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

83. Labour: a year after the election

Author:
Bell Ribeiro-Addy, Lucy Powell, John Curtice, Sienna Rodgers, and Anand Menon
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
The outcome of the 2019 general election was the worst in the Labour Party’s history. One year on from the vote the UK in a Changing Europe and LabourList are putting on an event looking at how the party has changed over the last 12 months and what it needs to do to win in 2024. Speakers are: Bell Ribeiro-Addy, MP for Streatham, Labour Party; Lucy Powell, Shadow Minister for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy and MP for Manchester Central, Labour Party; Sir John Curtice, Senior Fellow, UK in a Changing Europe; Sienna Rodgers, Editor, LabourList; Chair: Anand Menon, Director, UK in a Changing Europe
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Brexit, Political Parties, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

84. Study and Reports on the VAT Gap in the EU-28 Member States: 2020 Final Report

Author:
Adam Śmietanka, Grzegorz Poniatowski, and Mikhail Bonch-Osmolovsky
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
This Study contains Value Added Tax (VAT) Gap estimates for 2018, fast estimates using a simplified methodology for 2019, the year immediately preceding the analysis, and includes revised estimates for 2014-2017. It also includes the updated and extended results of the econometric analysis of VAT Gap determinants initiated and initially reported in the 2018 Report (Poniatowski et al., 2018). As a novelty, the econometric analysis to forecast potential impacts of the coronavirus crisis and resulting recession on the evolution of the VAT Gap in 2020 is reported. In 2018, most European Union (EU) Member States (MS) saw a slight decrease in the pace of gross domestic product (GDP) growth, but the economic conditions for increasing tax compliance remained favourable. We estimate that the VAT total tax liability (VTTL) in 2018 increased by 3.6 percent whereas VAT revenue increased by 4.2 percent, leading to a decline in the VAT Gap in both relative and nominal terms. In relative terms, the EU-wide Gap dropped to 11 percent and EUR 140 billion. Fast estimates show that the VAT Gap will likely continue to decline in 2019. Of the EU-28, the smallest Gaps were observed in Sweden (0.7 percent), Croatia (3.5 percent), and Finland (3.6 percent), the largest – in Romania (33.8 percent), Greece (30.1 percent), and Lithuania (25.9 percent). Overall, half of the EU-28 MS recorded a Gap above 9.2 percent. In nominal terms, the largest Gaps were recorded in Italy (EUR 35.4 billion), the United Kingdom (EUR 23.5 billion), and Germany (EUR 22 billion). The Policy Gap and its components remained stable. For the EU overall, the average Policy Gap level was 44.24 percent. Of this, in 2018, 10.07 percentage points were due to the application of various reduced and super-reduced rates (the Rate Gap) and 34.17 were due to the application of exemptions without the right to deduct. The results of the econometric analysis show that the VAT Gap is influenced by a group of factors relating to the current economic conditions, institutional environment, and economic structure as well as to the measures and actions of tax administrations. Out of a broad set of tested variables, GDP growth and general government balance appeared to explain a substantial set of VAT Gap variation across time and countries. Within the control of tax administrations, share of IT expenditure proved to have the highest statistical significance in explaining the size of the VAT Gap. In addition, the VAT Gap appeared to be inter-related with the values of risky imports of goods, indicating the role of fraud in driving the overall share of the VAT Gap. Since the COVID-19 recession will likely have a dire impact on the EU economies, the VAT Gap in 2020 is forecasted to increase. If the EU economy contracts by 7.4 percent in 2020 and the general government deficit jumps as forecasted in the Spring Forecast of the European Commission, the Gap could increase by 4.1 percentage points year-over year up to 13.7 percent and EUR 164 billion in 2020. The hike in 2020 could be more pronounced than the gradual decrease of the Gap observed over the three preceding years. Moreover, a return to the VAT Gap levels observed in 2018 and 2019 will take time and require significant action from tax administrations. This Report has been written for the European Commission, DG TAXUD, for the project TAXUD/2019/AO-14, “Study and Reports on the VAT Gap in the EU-28 Member States”, and is a follow-up to the seven reports published between 2013 and 2019.
Topic:
European Union, Fiscal Policy, VAT, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

85. The impact of COVID-19 on organised crime in the Western Balkans

Author:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The fourth in a series analysing the ways COVID-19 is affecting stability across the world, this paper explores the impact on organised crime in the Western Balkans of the health and economic crisis brought about by the pandemic. Criminal organisations active in the Western Balkans have proved very apt at exploiting the evolution of the pandemic and related government responses to expand their activities regionally and globally. The key role played by the European Union in recent times to promote the rule of law and institutional reforms against organised crime in the region is at risk of setback given its limited economic firepower post-COVID-19 and China’s increasing influence through its economic and investment diplomacy. Law-enforcement agencies will struggle to prevent criminal groups from further infiltrating the region’s economies amid increasing budgetary constraints. Western Balkans governments should use the current challenging circumstances as an opportunity to redefine medium- and long-term priorities in their efforts against organised crime. However, for these efforts to be successful, the sustained political and operational support of other countries will be needed, given the expanding international reach of regional criminal groups.
Topic:
Political stability, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and Balkans

86. Promoting and Projecting Stability: Challenges and Perspectives

Author:
Amanda Lapo, Bastain Giegerich, and James Hackett
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The ambition to promote stability and foster peace in an increasingly volatile security environment is an established element of EU and NATO policy. There is a risk that the coronavirus pandemic will increase the demand for stabilisation measures while at the same time complicating their supply. This paper focuses on the role that military and security actors can play in supporting stabilisation efforts. The ambition to promote stability and foster peace in an increasingly volatile security environment is an established element of European Union and NATO policy. This ambition is also reflected in many of their member states’ national-level policy and strategy documents. The direction and implementation of these policies are influenced by a range of motivations including security worries, humanitarian concerns and historical ties. Stability is a challenging endeavour at the best of times, and there is a risk that the coronavirus pandemic will increase the demand for it while at the same time complicating its supply.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, European Union, Political stability, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe, North Atlantic, and North America

87. “The Political Striptease Show Amid the Coronavirus Pandemic Is Unattractive, Off-Putting”

Author:
Sergey Ryabkov
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
East View Information Services
Abstract:
Interview with Sergey Ryabkov, Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, World Health Organization, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe