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111. Where Does the Buck Stop with the Backstop? The Irish-UK Border in Brexit Negotiations: June 2016-January 2019

Author:
Paul McNamara
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
The abject failure of British Prime Minister Theresa May to get the United Kingdom’s (UK) Withdrawal Agreement from the European Union (EU) through Parliament on 15 January 2019, with MPs overwhelmingly rejecting it by 432 votes to 202, has been put down to a variety of reasons. Primary among them has been the question of the post-Brexit status of the land border between the Republic of Ireland and the UK’s province of Northern Ireland. Although an issue which was initially seen as of minor importance, the significance of the Irish border steadily grew over time until it became the main stumbling block in UKEU Brexit negotiations brought about by the decision of the British people to leave the EU in a referendum held on 23 June 2016. Indeed, the key term of the ensuing debate, namely ‘the Irish backstop’, produced such confusion among politicians, political pundits and the general public that the House of Commons, split between so-called Brexiteers and Remainers, decided to reject May’s deal out of hand. This article seeks to argue that, from June 2016 (the time of the referendum) up to January 2019 (the time of the first vote on May’s Brexit deal in Parliament), the issue of the Irish backstop was seriously underestimated before suddenly taking centre stage and ultimately sabotaging the Withdrawal Agreement from within.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, European Union, Brexit, and Borders
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Ireland

112. The Battle of Brexit. Analysis of the 2019 United Kingdom General Election Results

Author:
Bartłomiej H. Toszek
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
The article presents the main parties (i.e. the Conservative Party, Labor Party, Liberal Democrats and Scottish National Party) results of the 2019 UK general election as well as an analysis of the most important issues (i.e. correct identification of voters’ expectations, simplicity and clarity of the messages, leaders’ personalities) which determined each party success or loss. The author proves that since Brexit was the primary focus of voters, the level of support for particular parties remained dependent on the solutions presented in this issue. This basis explains why the Conservatives in the whole UK and the SNP in Scotland won (and the Labor Party and the Liberal Democrats lost) the battle of Brexit.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Elections, European Union, Brexit, and Nativism
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

113. Getting Brexit Started: prospects for a new EU-UK partnership into the 2020s

Author:
Andrew Hammond and Tim Oliver
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
The withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU) on January 31 was a seminal moment in post-war history, and one that presents challenges and opportunities for both key parties. Yet far from being a single, isolated event, the departure derives from a much broader process of well over a dozen negotiations (a catch-all term used here for formal diplomatic discussions and wider debates about Brexit) between and within the UK and EU about their futures. With so many Brexit negotiations still underway, this paper underlines that the final form of the UK’s departure from the EU is not yet set in stone. Even with a withdrawal deal now ratified, there are multiple scenarios still possible: from a disorderly exit this year, through to the outside prospect of the transition being extended and a deep, comprehensive deal being concluded later in the 2020s. The stakes in play therefore remain huge and historic as both sides seek a new constructive partnership that can hopefully bring significant benefits for both at a time of global geopolitical turbulence.
Topic:
Diplomacy, European Union, Partnerships, Geopolitics, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

114. Britain's No-Deal Debacle? The Costs at Home and Likely Setbacks Abroad

Author:
John Ryan
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
For much of the past four years, and increasingly in the past few months, the United Kingdom has drifted in the direction of a No-Deal Brexit. In this Strategic Update, John Ryan explores the economic and political consequences for the United Kingdom of such a situation, as well as the domestic factors in Ireland and the United States that may provide unanticipated problems for the Johnson government.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Politics, Brexit, and Trade
Political Geography:
Britain, United Kingdom, Europe, Ireland, and United States of America

115. 16 years on the road to Brexit - Gawain Towler in Conversation with Dr. Robert Saunders

Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
Gawain Towler served as Director of Communications for the Brexit Party and was previously Head of Press for UKIP. He now runs his own Communications and Strategy agency. He has worked for several years at a high level in politics, policy, charity and the commercial sector, based in both the UK and Brussels and is widely recognised and respected by peers as one of the country's top political PR professionals. In this event, co-hosted by the Mile End Institute and The UK in a Changing Europe, he will reflect on a 16-year political journey towards Brexit.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

116. Resilience or Relocation? Expectations and Reality in the City of London since the Brexit Referendum

Author:
Manolis Kalaitzake
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:
The fate of British finance following the Brexit referendum revolves around the “resilience or relocation” debate: will the City of London continue to thrive as the world’s leading financial centre, or will the bulk of its activity move to rival hubs after departure from EU trading arrangements? Despite extensive commentary, there remains no systematic analysis of this question since the Leave vote. This paper addresses that lacuna by evaluating the empirical evidence concerning jobs, investments, and share of key trading markets (between June 2016 and May 2020). Contrary to widely held expectations, the evidence suggests that the City has been remarkably resilient. Brexit has had no significant impact on jobs and London has consolidated its position as the chief location for financial FDI, FinTech funding, and attracting new firms. Most unexpectedly, the City has increased its dominance in major infrastructure markets such as (euro-denominated) clearing, derivatives, and foreign exchange – although it has lost out in the handling of European repurchase agreements. Based upon this evidence, the paper argues that the UK’s negotiating position is stronger than typically recognised, and outlines the competitive ramifications for both the UK and EU financial sector.
Topic:
European Union, Brexit, Resilience, Financial Services, and Relocation
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and London

117. Special Envoy Mick Mulvaney: “The U.S. Role in Northern Ireland”

Author:
Mick Mulvaney
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
The Center for the Study of Statesmanship, Catholic University
Abstract:
Historically, Northern Ireland has been a place where U.S. diplomatic involvement has been welcomed and fruitful. This special online forum features Special Envoy Mick Mulvaney in discussion with Professor David Walsh of The Catholic University of America. Ambassador Mulvaney discusses his experiences in and outlook for Northern Ireland amid the complexities of Brexit, COVID-19, and a U.S. presidential election. Moderated by CSS’ Justin Logan.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Brexit, COVID-19, and Presidential Elections
Political Geography:
Europe, United States of America, and Northern Ireland

118. International Development Cooperation After Brexit

Author:
Mikaela Gavas
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
Mikaela Gavas submitted written evidence to the United Kingdom's House of Lords EU External Affairs Sub-Committee on January 31, 2019. In her evidence Gavas answered questions about the future of UK-EU development cooperation after Brexit.
Topic:
Development, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

119. To Stay or to Go? How European Right-wing Populist Parties are Adjusting to the Post-Brexit Era Public Opinion

Author:
David Fernández Marcos
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Since the 1990s a great deal of literature has been written predicting the behaviour of right-wing populists explaining their policies and ideology. Until Brexit, there had been no such clear victory for right-wing populist policies. Drawing from the current state of the art, data from the national and European electoral party manifestos as well as Eurobarometer survey data from France, Germany, Italy and Sweden, this dissertation employs Strom’s rational choice-based party behaviour model to explore how the internal structure and each country’s political and institutional environments have mediated the right-wing populist parties’ reaction to the upswing of positive opinions about the European Union among European public opinion since Brexit. They have done so in two directions: by either continuing their promise to leave the EU or by dropping the promise and instead advocating institutional reform, in those cases where the parties seek to govern.
Topic:
Public Opinion, European Union, Brexit, Populism, and Far Right
Political Geography:
Europe

120. The EU should prepare for all UK post-election scenarios

Author:
Larissa Brunner
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
With the UK elections imminent, Larissa Brunner lays out three different scenarios depending on the outcome. None offer any reason for the EU to be optimistic. If the Conservatives win, the Withdrawal Agreement will probably be passed, providing short-term predictability and certainty. But any long-term deal will probably be much worse than the status quo. A Labour victory would mean the opposite: further short-term uncertainty until the new government has renegotiated another Brexit deal and held a second referendum, but a possible closer relationship in the long run (assuming the Leave vote is confirmed). A hung Parliament would combine the worst of both worlds. And then there’s the Scottish question. Regardless of whether the new government needs SNP support or not, the political pressure on London to endorse a second independence vote is likely to increase. The EU should, therefore, not take its eye off the ball and use the current respite in the Brexit process to prepare itself for all of the possible post-election scenarios.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
Britain, United Kingdom, Europe, and Scotland