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72. Under Pressure: Can Belarus resist Russian coercion?
- Author:
- Anaïs Marin
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- Belarus is traditionally considered to be Russia’s closest ally, and their alliance is a cornerstone of post-Soviet integration projects, both military (the Collective Security Treaty Organisation - CSTO) and economic (the Eurasian Economic Union - EAEU). But bilateral relations have entered a different and more conflictual phase. The paradigm shift started in 2014, when Belarus invoked its constitutional neutrality pledge to refuse to side with Russia in its ongoing conflict with Ukraine and the West. Playing this card allowed President Lukashenka to appear as a security guarantor both in the eyes of Belarusians and the West. Irritated by such autonomy, Moscow indicated that it now wants more for its money. Russia is no longer ready to subsidise the Belarusian economy in exchange for its neighbour’s fleeting geopolitical loyalty. In linking, in 2018, the resumption of economic privileges to ‘deeper’ political integration within the Union State that the two countries nominally established 20 years ago, Russia stepped up the pressure. Yet Vladimir Putin made Belarus an offer he knew Aliaksandr Lukashenka would refuse: the Belarusian president had repeatedly stated that Belarus’s sovereignty was ‘not for sale’. Given its dependence on Russia and current economic hardships, Belarus might not be able to resist Moscow’s ‘coercion to integrate’, however. Its capacity to uphold its sovereignty is being challenged from outside, while Lukashenka’s regime survival is under stress from within: in the wake of the 9 August presidential election, unprecedented opposition forces emerged which the Belarusian regime started cracking down on.1 Should repression intensify, leading the West to reintroduce sanctions, Minsk’s efforts of the past years towards normalising relations with Brussels and Washington would come to nothing. Yet renewed (self-)isolation of Belarus is exactly what Russia needs to reach its strategic goal of keeping Belarus in its orbit, and extract more concessions from its fragile leadership. This presents the EU with a dilemma it knows all too well: how can it support Belarus’s efforts to preserve its independence, without increasing the resilience of Lukashenka’s authoritarian regime or making Russia more assertive?
- Topic:
- European Union, Partnerships, Geopolitics, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and Belarus
73. GCSP Joins Effort to Reduce Tensions between NATO and Russia
- Author:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- With dozens of experts from academic institutions and think tanks working in Russia, NATO nations, and neutral countries, GCSP experts took part in the elaboration of a set of recommendations to revive strategic dialogue and apply urgent confidence- and security-building measures between Russia and NATO. This document has been signed by some 145 personalities. Among them are 16 former ministers of international affairs and defence, 24 ambassadors, 27 retired Generals and Admirals, well-known experts from 55 universities, research institutes and centres.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Alliance, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Europe and North America
74. Canada and the European Union: A New Transatlantic Alliance
- Author:
- Robert Hage
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- Jean Monnet’s early Canadian experiences are seen as the basis for his inspiration to unite Europe. Successive Canadian governments have tried to ensure lasting links with the European Union. Both sides have now achieved this against the background of President Trump’s rejection of multilateralism and the world-wide pandemic.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Alliance, and Transatlantic Relations
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Canada, and North America
75. France Needs Israel as a Strong and Firm Ally
- Author:
- Olivier Rafowicz
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Is President Macron capable of reshaping Franco-Israeli relations?
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Leadership, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Israel, and France
76. Russia and Issues of HTS and Tanzim Hurras ad-Din
- Author:
- Anton Mardasov
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Moderate Syrian opposition includes some natives from Russia’s North Caucasus, although they are a minority. Caucasian and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) natives were, in large part, members of the Islamic State (IS) or in some way linked to the forces formally led by Jabhat al-Nusra (JaN) and later by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Those who went to Syria and Iraq to fight can be roughly divided into two generations. The first one includes Caucasus Emirate members who responded to the call of Salafi sheikhs from Arab-Islamic centres. Natives of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kirghizia, and Turkmenistan (migrant workers, for the most part) were mainly recruited for jihad in Russia or within various diasporas across Europe.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Alliance, Conflict, and Opposition
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Syria
77. Chinese Discourse on NATO
- Author:
- Justyna Szczudlik
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Chinese experts’ interest in NATO has been growing for a year. The reason is the debate on China that began in the Alliance last year. China treats NATO as part of its rivalry with the U.S., vindicated by Chinese analysts’ emphasis on divergences between members, critical assessments of U.S. NATO policy and their conciliatory approach to European members. The continuation of the Alliance debate on China, including recognizing it as a threat, may lead the latter to intensify efforts to widen the divisions and seek closer cooperation with Russia.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America
78. La Entente franco-británica y España: El aliado que no fue
- Author:
- Pedro Panera
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
- Institution:
- Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
- Abstract:
- Lejos de las consideraciones tradicionales de que la España de inicios del siglo XX poco o nada tuvo que ver con en el panorama internacional, el presente artículo tratará de demostrar cómo Madrid orbitó en torno a Londres y París durante los prolegómenos de la Gran Guerra. Finalmente, la reticencia de Roma a hacer valer sus acuerdos adquiridos con los Imperios Centrales, declarándose neutral, alejó el foco del conflicto del Mediterráneo Occidental. La España de 1914 finalmente no participó en la contienda, pero es el propósito de este trabajo explicar en qué medida su Armada y su Ejército habían jugado un papel de primer orden en los planteamientos estratégicos del conflicto que cambiaría el mundo.
- Topic:
- Military Affairs, Geopolitics, History, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Britain, Europe, France, and Spain
79. Transatlantic intelligence ties remain strong: Insulated against political turmoil
- Author:
- Christopher Kojm
- Publication Date:
- 08-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- Headlines are rife with stories about political turmoil in transatlantic relations, and bitter disputes over trade and defence spending. Yet for the US Intelligence Community, ties with transatlantic partners have remained insulated against political differences. History shows that intelligence relationships follow their own logic.
- Topic:
- Intelligence, Regional Cooperation, Alliance, and Transatlantic Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and North America
80. Islamist Archipelago: The Turkey-Qatar Nexus
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The Turkey-Qatar-Muslim Brotherhood alliance first came to prominence in the early, optimistic months of the “Arab Spring.”
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Arab Spring, Alliance, and Muslim Brotherhood
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Qatar, and Persian Gulf