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31. Ukraine-Russia: from crisis – to effective partnership

Author:
Maryna Melnyk
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
Today, the Ukraine-Russia relations are in a critical state. Conflicts are on the rise in the key fields of cooperation – political, socio-economic, humanitarian. A number of problems complicating bilateral contacts actually remain “frozen”. The parties’ positions divided on a number of key foreign policy issues, the geopolitical orientations of Ukraine and Russia are totally different. The process of estrangement of the state and political elites of the two countries goes on, while the political-diplomatic dialogue acquired numerous traits of mutual accusations and demarches. The intensity of bilateral contacts between representatives of the political establishment, expert communities, business circles, academic communities and the public notably goes down. Numerous declarations of Kyiv and Moscow of “normalisation, rationalisation, de-politicisation” of relations did not lead to success. Probably, the most alarming is that the recent years saw deterioration of relations between citizens of the two countries. Sociologists record growth of estrangement, prejudice, enmity. This trend witnesses the threat of breakup of traditional socio-cultural ties of the two countries. Such processes and trends give grounds to note a systemic crisis in the Ukraine-Russia partnership, unreadiness of the parties for positive reformatting of cooperation. The atmosphere of relations was strongly undermined by the conflict in the Caucasus (August 2008) that affected the security architecture on the regional and global scale, the Ukraine-Russia “gas war” of January 2009, which involved countries of the European continent. Escalation of conflicts poses a double-edged threat, devaluates “geopolitical assets” of both countries. For Russia, there is a threat of staying an unpopular regional power player overburdened by the post-imperial syndrome, with inadequate claims of control of the post-Soviet space. For Ukraine – a threat of staying in a state of uncertainty, transition, in the “grey zone” of collision of interests of the West and East. Unfortunately, there are grounds to suggest that in the near future, the character of bilateral relations will not fundamentally change. Another “unfriendly pause” arose in the dialogue of Kyiv and Moscow, most probably, in connection with the forthcoming presidential elections in Ukraine. What is also evident is that such state of affairs does not meet the national interests of both Ukraine and Russia, aggravates the regional situation, complicates contacts of the two countries with the European community, NATO, and the USA. There is no alternative to establishment of good-neighbourly partnership between Ukraine and Russia. Such partnership should rest on the European norms and rules, parity and mutual benefit, transparency, mutual respect of the sovereignty and territorial integrity, consideration of each other’s interests,
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

32. Topical problems in social relations in the AR of Crimea

Author:
Maryna Melnyk
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
The AR of Crimea is a special region of Ukraine, not only because of its autonomous status, but also thanks to its unique historic and cultural heritage, ethnic composition of the population, geopolitical situation. It may be said without exaggeration that the ability to integrate Crimea into the pan-Ukrainian political and socio-cultural space presents a key test of maturity and effectiveness of the Ukrainian state. This determines the extreme importance of Crimean segment in the Ukrainian policy. But unfortunately, there are no grounds to claim serious success in that domain; rather, things are developing in the opposite direction. It may be stated that the socio-political situation in the AR of Crimea, after the relative stability of late 1990s – early 2000s, has deteriorated lately. In the result of serious political contradictions, deregulation of the executive branch, lack of system and consistency in the Ukrainian state policy regarding Crimea, interaction between the republican and central authorities in some sectors is far from standards of constructive cooperation, which leads to continual nonexecution or even open obstruction of decisions of the central authorities dealing with Crimea. This brings to light drawbacks in the effective legislation describing the rights and powers of the AR of Crimea, regimenting the autonomy’s relations with Kyiv, presentation and defence of its interests in the supreme bodies of state power. Meanwhile, radical, first of all – pro-Russian public and political forces stepped up their activity in Crimea, manifested, in particular, in stronger opposition to actions of the state authorities aimed at rapprochement with Euro-Atlantic structures, and in moral support for Russia and its Black Sea Fleet during the armed conflict with Georgia in August 2008. The problems of amenities for and social rehabilitation of repatriates, first of all – representatives of Crimean Tatars, are far from final solution. Despite the deep study of those problems by the Ukrainian authorities and representative bodies of the Crimean Tatar people, full mutual understanding between its political leadership and the state authorities in the issues of restoration of economic, social, cultural and political rights of the Crimean Tatar people, definition of its place in Ukraine’s legal framework and its state system is still absent. Given the evident deficiency of means of protection of collective interests available to Crimean Tatars, this undermines trust in the authorities, both Ukrainian and Crimean, and deteriorates inter-ethnic relations in Crimea. The absence of strategic approaches of the Ukrainian authorities to comprehensive solution of Crimean problems, prevalence of the policy of situational response to separate problems or their neglect have an effect on the public consciousness of the Crimean residents in the form of growth of separatist and irredentist spirits, unpopularity of the prospects of further development of Crimea within the constitutional framework of Ukraine. External influences on the situation in the AR of Crimea in economic, political, religious and information sectors are growing. Not all of them may be termed negative, but many of them are designed to entirely cut Crimea from Ukrainian political and socio-cultural space or to make the latter a factor of political and cultural disintegration of the Ukrainian society and state. Against that background, Crimean society witnesses processes of transformation, in particular, consolidation of the main ethnic groups by socio-cultural features, growth of competition among them in the political, socioeconomic and symbolic domains. Evolution of relations among the most numerous Crimean socio-cultural communities towards aggravation of contradictions will threaten the socio-political stability of not only Crimea but Ukraine as a whole, give a pretext for interference of outside forces in its internal affairs, moreover, given the precedents of implementation of similar political scenarios. Study of the situation in the AR of Crimea, identification of factors influencing it and search of ways of the most optimal solution of the existing problems are all covered by the Ukrainian-Swiss project “Socio-political, inter-ethnic and inter-confessional relations in Crimea –state, problems, ways of solution”, jointly implemented by Razumkov Centre and University of Basel’s Europainstitut.
Topic:
Demographics, Culture, Autonomy, and Identity
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Crimea

33. Diversification projects in Ukraine’s energy sector: state, problems and ways of achievement

Author:
Yevhen Shulha
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
Ukraine, seeking to back future sustainable development of the national economy with energy resources, is interested in their reliable deliveries. Since large volumes of energy resources are imported from one country (or through the territory of one country) – Russia, Ukraine logically and reasonably tries to diversify their sources and in that way minimise risks for its energy security, including political ones. The plans to diversify sources of energy supply, first of all, to reduce energy dependence on the Russian Federation, for years have been declared in official documents of different levels (e.g., the Energy Strategy of Ukraine through 2030). Meanwhile, those questions caused most acute discussions in the Ukrainian political community and in society, which hindered implementation of diversification projects. The current stage of such projects’ development bears traits endangering their implementation. First, the global economic crisis that substantially complicated normal functioning of the Ukrainian economy also strongly affected operation of the national energy sector: in the conditions of foreign credits shortage and reduction of budget allocations on specific energy projects and the energy sector as a whole, investments in the energy sector go down, hindering its development. So, the global economic crisis adjusts plans that even before were not zealously implemented. Second, another “gas war” (January 2009) again complicated the uneasy relations of Ukraine with its strategic partner in the energy sector – Russia. And any economically unsound decisions may not only destabilise supply of energy resources but lead to their cut. Third, aggravation of home political confrontation on the eve of the presidential elections, unfortunately, extends to diversification projects in the energy sector. This greatly undermines the effectiveness of Ukraine’s international cooperation with foreign governments and transnational companies, since diversification projects are international, their implementation requires huge investments and import of advanced technologies. An economic choice of diversification projects should make that area of the energy sector reform the core of Ukraine’s energy strategy, concentrate funds on priority directions of development, cease excessive politicisation of that issue in society, making those projects nation-wide. At the same time, it is clear that irrespective of the diversification projects implementation time, Russia will remain the main partner for Ukraine in the energy sector in the long run. The pause in the “race” of international diversification projects caused by the global economic crisis enables Ukraine and its partners in implementation of said projects to defer for some time, without particular losses, passage of final decisions for all-round analysis of the goals they face and search of the most effective and acceptable for all actors ways of their attainment.
Topic:
Oil, Natural Resources, Gas, Diversification, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

34. Political corruption in Ukraine

Author:
Yevhen Shulha
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
In recent years, the problem of political corruption has become especially pressing in Ukraine. The scale of that phenomenon in governmental and political institutes lets us describe political corruption as an attribute of their everyday activity. Political corruption poisoned all branches and institutes of state governance, local self-government, and presents the main obstacle on the road of Ukraine’s development into a truly democratic state. Political corruption may be identified as the main reason for the political crises of 2006-2009, and in more general terms, did not let Ukraine use its chance of fundamental internal modernisation and approach to EU standards in different sectors that arose after the presidential elections in 2004. Ukraine’s political elite proved unprepared to accept an incorrupt model of politics and governance, and therefore unprepared for large-scale and, most of all, effective fighting political corruption. As a result, accusations of political corruption became only a tool of political struggle and public rhetoric of politicians. Meeting no effective counteraction, political corruption gradually evolved from deviant behaviour into a norm of relations in the state and political circles. “Hierarchic corrupt pyramids” and “closed corrupt cycles” were created in the system of governance, involving representatives of different institutes of governance. Political corruption is nourished by the activity of the most potent financial and industrial groups, and structures of the shadow economy that have enough resources to finance politics behind the scene and influence the authorities in that manner. Political and state figures secured themselves against political responsibility. Channels of public influence on the authorities are effectively obstructed. The system of parliamentary elections and most of local self-government bodies bars voters’ influence on its personal membership. Exercise of the citizens’ right to organisation and conduct of referendums, accomplishment of the procedures of presidential impeachment or bringing members of the parliament to criminal responsibility are next to impracticable. The structures primarily called to oppose corruption – courts and law-enforcement bodies – proved the most vulnerable to it. Internally corrupt, affected by varied managerial and political influences, they cannot effectively discharge their functions of fighting political corruption. The peculiarities of such inability are, on one hand, failed attempts of prosecution of top officials in cases of corruption, on the other – persecution of political opponents under invented pretexts. Further spread of political corruption in Ukraine endangers its national security, since it impairs the effectiveness of the authorities, undermines their public legitimacy, promotes legal nihilism in society, disappointment about the values of democracy and the rule of law. This results in impairment of the country’s competitiveness on the world scene, its ability to effectively counter inner and outer challenges. This study by Razumkov Centre was intended to identify the specificities and scale of political corruption in Ukraine, the fields and reasons of its growth, to provide the basis for formulation of the optimal strategy of countering that phenomenon.
Topic:
Corruption, Government, Politics, and Elections
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine