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4141. Making Foreign Companies Serve China: Outsourcing Propaganda to Local Entities in the Czech Republic

Author:
Martin Hala
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The fast build-up and equally sudden decline of Chinese influence in the Czech Republic offers an interesting case study of vulnerability and resilience in the newly democratic small states targeted by the united front operations of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). [1] Recent revelations about a powerful Czech financial corporation manipulating public opinion in favor of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) demonstrate the complex dynamics between political and economic actors—both Chinese and local—and how private companies are being leveraged to spread pro-PRC propaganda (Aktuálně, December 10, 2019 / English translation). The main vector of influence in the Czech Republic has been the PRC’s “economic diplomacy,” which downplays political differences and emphasizes the economic opportunities offered by closer relationships with China (Sinopsis, March 11, 2019; China Brief, May 9, 2019). In Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), it builds on promises of investments into local economies still lagging behind those in Western Europe. The promised investments may or may not materialize, but the economic enticement alone creates a conducive environment for the cooptation of local political and business elites in a manner similar to more traditional united front tactics (China Brief, May 9, 2019). Apart from the promised investments by Chinese companies, the reverse allure may consist of market access in China for local companies, which may then be manipulated into becoming propaganda echo chambers for the CCP. The Czech Republic offers examples of both of these phenomena.
Topic:
Propaganda, Local, Private Sector, and Public-Private Partnership
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and Czech Republic

4142. The Vatican Stays Away from the Hong Kong Crisis Due to Fears of Beijing’s Retaliation

Author:
Emanuele Scimia
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
On January 9, in his annual message to diplomatic envoys accredited to the Holy See, Pope Francis voiced concern for the conflicts ravaging parts of the Middle East, Africa, the Caucasus, and Ukraine, as well as for the increasing number of political crises gripping Latin America. However, not a single word was offered about the situation in Hong Kong (Vatican News, Vatican State Website, January 9). Serious socio-political unrest began in Hong Kong last June over a now-withdrawn extradition bill that, according to protesters, would allow the extradition of political dissidents to mainland China (China Brief, June 26, 2019). The pontiff has so far said nothing about the crisis in the city, much to the chagrin of many local Catholics. It seems that the Vatican has no intention of supporting the anti-government movement in Hong Kong, as such a move would hinder its attempts to improve relations with the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in Beijing.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Religion, Leadership, Catholic Church, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and Vatican city

4143. Fair-Weather Friends: The Impact of the Coronavirus on the Strategic Partnership Between Russia and China

Author:
Johan Van de Ven
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
In June 2019, during a visit to the Kremlin by Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Russian Federation announced that they had “agreed…to upgrade their relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination for a new era” (Xinhua, June 6, 2019). This continued the warming of bilateral relations nurtured by Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin, who have met at least 30 times during their respective tenures. The strengthening of ties has seen unusually relaxed encounters between the pair, such as when they made blini (traditional Russian pancakes) together in Vladivostok in September 2018 (People’s Daily, September 12, 2018). In more substantive terms, support from Chinese state-linked financial institutions has played a critical role in the construction of a new wave of Russian energy infrastructure, ranging from the Yamal Liquified Natural Gas Project to the “Power of Siberia” gas pipeline. However, the ongoing COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak has opened a stress fracture in the bilateral Sino-Russian relationship. After weeks of gradually escalating restrictions, reports emerged in late February that Moscow public transit drivers had been instructed to call police if they witnessed Chinese passengers using the transit system (Wangyi Keji, February 25). The PRC Embassy in Russia warned that such actions “will harm the good atmosphere for developing Chinese-Russian relations” (Novaya Gazeta, February 25). While China was initially restrained it its public criticism of Russian measures taken in the course of the COVID-19 epidemic, the decision of the PRC Embassy in Moscow to highlight the discrimination being faced by Chinese citizens in Moscow is a reminder of just how quickly tensions can arise between the two countries, even in the age of “comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination for a new era.”
Topic:
Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, and Asia

4144. The Chinese Charm Offensive Towards Italy as the Coronavirus Crisis Deepens

Author:
Dario Cristiani
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
One year ago, Italy was hitting the headlines as Rome became the first G7 country to formally sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with China to join the Belt and Road Initiative, or BRI (China Brief, April 24, 2019). For Italy-China relations, 2020 would have been in any case a vital year: marking fifty years since the establishment of official diplomatic ties, the Italian President of the Republic Sergio Mattarella was due to visit China by the end of the year, after People’s Republic of China (PRC) President Xi Jinping came to Italy in March 2019 to sign the MoU (La Repubblica, January 17). However, twelve months later, Italy is finding itself facing the worst health and economic crisis it has experienced since World War II—a crisis in which the PRC is playing a number of prominent roles. This global pandemic has been caused by a new strain of coronavirus that emerged in the central Chinese city of Wuhan (Hubei Province) in late 2019. Officials of the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) at first tried to cover up the outbreak, before having to admit to its existence (China Brief, January 17; China Brief, January 29). It was just a matter of weeks before this disease started spreading worldwide. Beyond China itself, the country that has faced the most virulent outbreak is Italy: as of March 31, the COVID-19 virus had claimed the lives of 11,591 Italians, while 14,620 have recovered out of 101,739 people who tested positive (Corriere della Sera, March 31). Such a horrific outbreak has thrown Italy into the worst crisis of its republican history, and one of the worst in its unitary history. This crisis soon assumed a multifaceted dimension: it became not merely a public health emergency, but also developed into a political, institutional, economic, security, and even psychological emergency, with entire Italian communities under lockdown for weeks.
Topic:
Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Travel
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and Italy

4145. Turkey’s Membership Process In a Multi-Speed European Union

Author:
Ekrem Yaşar Akçay and İdris Turan
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:
Altinbas University
Abstract:
The European Union, established after World War II, has strengthened the revival of Europe, which has suffered greatly due to the war in many areas, including economic, political and socio-cultural. At the same time, the European Union overtook the conflicts between states. The European Union, which has occasionally passed through major breaks since its foundation, has recently begun to evolve into a new structure called multispeed Europe. On the 60th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Rome, the member states, for the first time, have mentioned this new structure in an official publication. This structure has led to disagreements 13 among EU member states. On the other hand, it is also a matter of curiosity how the candidate countries will follow once this structure is created. This study assesses the potential effects of a a multi-speed European Union on Turkey-EU relations. In addition, it tries to evaluate whether the EU’s new structure will be an advantage for Turkey or not. In other words, this study aims to explore the possibility of Turkey’s EU full membership in the EU’s new model.
Topic:
International Relations, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

4146. Informal employment and wages in Poland

Author:
Jacek Liwiński
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Purpose: This paper tries to identify the wage gap between informal and formal workers and tests for the two-tier structure of the informal labour market in Poland. Design/methodology/approach: I employ the propensity score matching (PSM) technique and use data from the Polish Labour Force Survey (LFS) for the period 2009–2017 to estimate the wage gap between informal and formal workers, both at the means and along the wage distribution. I use two definitions of informal employment: a) employment without a written agreement and b) employment while officially registered as unemployed at a labour office. In order to reduce the bias resulting from the non-random selection of individuals into informal employment, I use a rich set of control variables representing several individual characteristics. Findings: After controlling for observed heterogeneity, I find that on average informal workers earn less than formal workers, both in terms of monthly earnings and hourly wage. This result is not sensitive to the definition of informal employment used and is stable over the analysed time period (2009–2017). However, the wage penalty to informal employment is substantially higher for individuals at the bottom of the wage distribution, which supports the hypothesis of the two-tier structure of the informal labour market in Poland. Originality/value: The main contribution of this study is that it identifies the two-tier structure of the informal labour market in Poland: informal workers in the first quartile of the wage distribution and those above the first quartile appear to be in two partially different segments of the labour market.
Topic:
Demographics, Labor Issues, Employment, Social Policy, and Informal Economy
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

4147. Compounded Crisis in Belarus: Drivers, Dynamics, and Possible Outcomes?

Author:
Pal Dunay and Graeme P. Herd
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
Abstract:
Until 2014, Belarus had embraced its Soviet legacy identity. After the Russian annexation of Crimea and its subsequent support for the separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk, elite discourse in Minsk favored a geopolitical shift away from Moscow and emphasized Belarus’ independent statehood and strategic autonomy. Elites tolerated and even co-opted a more nationalist agenda (including re-interpretations of history and the increased visiblity of nationalist symbols) and a clearer delineation emerged between pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian public groups in Belarus, inspired also in part by the Ukrainian reform process, though this was not clearly reflected in institutional politics. Belarusian national identity lacks the deeper anti-Russian sentiment inhrerent in that of Ukraine. Russia responded by enhancing its profile in Belarus through increased Russkiy Mir and Rossotrunichestvo activities to positively shape public opinion, even as it distanced itself from Lukashenka. In the last few years, Russia more publicly challenged Lukashenka to make good on his pledges by signing and implementing the thirty-one roadmaps for Union State integration. The Wagner debacle of July 29 further strained relations, not least as President Alyksandr Lukashenka instrumentalized the arrests to suggest that Russia was the greatest threat to Belarusian sovereignty and only he could defend its statehood. The current political crisis can also be attributed to a number of accumulating internal proximate factors, which eroded support for an incumbent president seeking a sixth five-year term after twenty-six years in power: the mismanagement of COVID-19 responses; a lost economic decade in which recovery shackled the IT sector and entrepreneurship and initiated the 2017 “parasite tax” protests; the rise of “autocrat fatigue”; a generational change with those under forty years old not identifying with Lukashenka’s Soviet era models and mentality; and a generalized resistance to the idea that the election could be rigged as usual. The existing social contract was at breaking point.
Topic:
Nationalism, Conflict, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Belarus

4148. “Germany’s EU Presidency 2020: The Security Dimension and EU-NATO Cooperation”

Author:
Ralf Roloff
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
Abstract:
On July 1, 2020, Germany assumed the Presidency of the Council of the European Union for the second half of 2020. How Germany manages the EU Council presidency will be of utmost importance for the future of the European Union as well as for the transatlantic relationship. The German EU presidency faces two major challenges: first, containing the coronavirus crisis and working towards a European economic recovery and second, initiating a lasting dynamic towards European solidarity, and autonomy. How are the two challenges intertwined with security questions? Germany intends to promote closer EU-NATO security cooperation. The coronavirus pandemic has tested this envisaged cooperation, but also offered new opportunities. Hence, what is the pandemic’s impact on Germany’s ambitions for EU-NATO cooperation? On July 2, 2020, the Marshall Center brought together a group of experts and alumni from Belgium, Croatia, Germany, Hungary, Lithuania, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, and the United States in a virtual workshop designed to share their expectations for Germany’s EU presidency as well as generate ideas about how to lay the groundwork for strengthening Euro-Atlantic security and EU-NATO cooperation going forward. The following takeaways are informed by the discussion.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, European Union, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

4149. COVID-19 and Irregular Migration in the Mediterranean

Author:
Benjamin P. Nickels and Margo Shields
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
Abstract:
Every year, tens of thousands of men, women, and children attempt to move—from East to West and from South to North—across the Mediterranean. This year, irregular migration across the Mediterranean is taking place during an unprecedented global coronavirus pandemic. How is COVID-19 affecting this year’s Mediterranean irregular migration and what should be done to manage this migration during the pandemic? On June 17, 2020, the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies brought together a diverse set of twelve practitioners and experts from Europe, Africa, the United States, and the Middle East to address this question. The following takeaways are informed by the discussion.
Topic:
Migration, Refugees, Humanitarian Crisis, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Mediterranean

4150. With the World in Turmoil, Transnational Organized Crime Sees Opportunity in Counterfeit Pharmaceuticals and Medical Supplies during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:
Stephen Noguera and Kalliroi Ziavrou
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
Abstract:
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic poses a host of global health, economic, and security challenges, to include the continued challenge of combating transnational organized crime. While some believe this pandemic will disrupt and have a negative impact on the global operations of transnational organized criminal groups, the morbid reality is that these groups view the crisis as a lucrative opportunity. For the foreseeable future, we can expect organized criminal groups to quickly adapt in order to exploit the pandemic via various illicit schemes. In Italy, mafia groups are already demonstrating that they are intent on benefiting from the crime-related opportunities that the COVID-19 pandemic will present.1 There are numerous opportunities and illicit ventures transnational organized crime will seek to exploit as this pandemic runs its course. Perhaps most concerning are the activities associated with the manufacture and trafficking of counterfeit pharmaceuticals and medical supplies, including personal protection equipment (PPE).2 Since the outbreak of the crisis, the sale of these products has increased.3 Interpol is warning that one of the five global threats from the coronavirus is the fraudulent and counterfeit trade in personal protective equipment and anti-viral pharmaceuticals.4 Moreover, during this crisis counterfeiters will most probably use shortages in the supply of some products to provide counterfeit alternatives.5 The European Medicines Agency (EMA) is urging the general public not to buy medicines from unauthorized websites and other vendors aiming to exploit fears and concerns during the ongoing pandemic of COVID-19. Such products are likely to be falsified medicines.6 According to the World Health Organization (WHO), “falsified” medicines are medical products that deliberately/fraudulently misrepresent their identity, composition, or source.7 For counterfeit products, the WHO is also using the terminology “substandard” (also called “out of specification”), for authorized medical products that fail to meet either their quality standards or specifications, or both, and “unregistered/unlicensed” for medical products that have not undergone evaluation and/or approval by the National or Regional Regulatory Authority (NRRA) for the market in which they are marketed/distributed or used, subject to permitted conditions under national or regional regulation and legislation.8
Topic:
International Cooperation, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Medicine
Political Geography:
Europe