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311. Beyond Corona: Getting EU Economic Security Right

Author:
Tobias Gehrke
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The corona crisis, the US-China great power competition and lacklustre international rules vividly demonstrate the vulnerability of economic interdependence. Interdependence is a power struggle, not a mutual aid society. For the vast benefits of a globalised economy to continue to outweigh its risks, policies to build greater resilience are necessary. For the EU, the unprecedented events also offer an opportunity to forge a new economic security approach to better manage its dependencies in strategic sectors.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Europe, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, Asia, and North America

312. Reducing Russia-NATO Tensions: Codes for Unplanned Encounters at Sea

Author:
Liselotte Odgaard and Sune Lund
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
This report first analyzes the use of CUES in the South China Sea, which is the region they initially were designed for as an instrument to prevent unwanted escalation. In what sense have CUES in the South China Sea set a precedent for reassurance measures in other regions? Second, we discuss whether CUES could be useful to lower tension levels between Russia and NATO in their ongoing conflicts over spheres of interest, strategic space, and appropriate deterrence measures in maritime Europe. The analysis draws on the first-hand experiences of personnel engaged in implementing the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea (CUES). This allows us to go beyond rhetorical announcements of intention and understand how de-escalation instruments are used at the level of implementation and whether they have any effect. Third, we conclude by discussing the caveats to and advantages of adopting CUES in the Euro-Atlantic area and how they should be designed to take the specific strategic context of this area into account.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Defense Policy, NATO, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Central Asia, and United States of America

313. Europe under US Monetary Hegemony: How the COVID-19 Pandemic Will Undermine a 100-Year-Old Relationship

Author:
Brendan Brown
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
This policy study is based on the newly released book, Europe’s Century of Crises under Dollar Hegemony: A Dialogue on the Global Tyranny of Unsound Money, by Brendan Brown and Philippe Simonnot, published by Palgrave Macmillan. One hundred years ago, the United States emerged from the First World War and its immediate aftermath, including the Spanish flu pandemic, as the global monetary hegemon, exercising immense power over the Old Continent. This new power quickly became the source of huge instability in Europe, culminating in the collapse of the Weimar Republic. After World War II, the Bretton Woods system set new contours for US monetary hegemony, ultimately resulting in the great economic crisis of 1973–75. This woeful history continues to the present day: Dollar hegemony has not been a force for good. It could have been different. The United States and Europe would both have gained from a US hegemony based on sound money principle. Instead, the guiding characteristic of US monetary power has been inflation, especially around election time. According to the doctrine made notorious by Treasury Secretary John Connally, who served under President Nixon, “the dollar is our currency but your problem.” The US monetary regime’s further lurch toward fundamental unsoundness during the COVID-19 pandemic is not getting the new century of US monetary hegemony off to a new start. The “known unknown” is whether forces will emerge in Europe that will again challenge US inflationary dominance, as occurred under Germany’s leadership in the 1970s. Could high inflation in the post-pandemic US economy cause US monetary hegemony over Europe to crumble?
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, History, Monetary Policy, Hegemony, Transatlantic Relations, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America

314. Brexit: An Assessment of Zambia- UK Trade & Investment Relations

Author:
Shimukunki Manchishi and Mwanda Phiri
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
Following the Brexit referendum held in the UK in 2016 that resulted in a majority vote to leave the EU, there has been speculation and uncertainty surrounding the likely impact of Brexit on trade relations between the UK and developing countries such as Zambia. With Brexit, comes the exit of the UK from the EU, its customs union as well as the single market. Consequently, this implies that Zambia’s trade with the UK will no longer be under the ambit of the EU Everything But Arms (EBA) trade agreement which grants Zambian products other than arms, duty-free and quota-free market access to the UK. Naturally, this brings about questions of the likely impact of Brexit on trade relations between Zambia and the UK which thus far, has been determined collectively under the framework of the EU since the UK’s accession to the EU customs union. In this policy paper, we provide a contextual analysis of the same. From this, we deduce that a ‘deal’ or ‘no deal’ Brexit is not likely to adversely impact the UK’s trade with Zambia. This is on condition that the UK’s own unilateral preference scheme comes into place and in time, to replicate the EU-EBA scheme with no disruption to traders. On the Investment front, although the UK has been Zambia’s fourth-largest source country for FDI inflows over the period 2010-2017, investments have been waning. Brexit has the potential to turn things around as the UK seeks to increase investments in other jurisdictions outside of the EU. With the UK now envisioning to become the largest G7 investor in Africa by 2022, there is a high probability that Brexit could lead to a positive investment crowding in effect, provided Zambia becomes a more attractive investment destination.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Brexit, Investment, and Trade
Political Geography:
Africa, United Kingdom, Europe, and Zambia

315. Framing of Online News Reporting on Terrorist Attacks in the United Kingdom (2015-2017)

Author:
Juraj Nosal
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, St. Andrews University, Scotland
Abstract:
This paper examined framing of online news reporting on terrorist attacks in the United Kingdom. The sample consisted of the articles published on three British news websites about six major terrorist attacks that took place in Europe between 2015 and 2017. The research aimed to identify and compare dominant news frames on the websites and discuss to what degree online reporting on terrorism contributes to the promotion of terror and violence. The study employed an inductive approach based on computer-assisted qualitative content analysis, which was complemented by quantitative content analysis of the article’s main textual elements such as headlines, leads, and concluding paragraphs. The analysis identified 20 dominant news frames: seven in MailOnline, six in The Independent and seven in The Telegraph. The study concluded that framing of news reporting on terrorist attacks does not significantly differ among the websites. Most frames contain similar framing packages and lexical choices, and can be grouped into broader sets that appear across the websites. Quantitative content analysis of the articles’ textual elements also showed very similar trends. Furthermore, the study found that online reporting on terrorist attacks significantly contributes to the promotion of terror and violence. This was clearly manifested in at least five identified news frames as well as by the results of quantitative content analysis.
Topic:
Terrorism, Media, Internet, and News Analysis
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

316. Germany-Turkey Relations: It could be worse

Author:
Ekrem Eddy Güzeldere
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Germany at the end of 2020 finds itself in an awkward position. It is hailed by President Erdogan as one of the “reasonable countries within the EU” and by Ibrahim Kalin as having “played a remarkably positive role.” Germany has “gained” this esteem because of its mediation efforts between Greece and Turkey concerning the tensions in the East Med and for avoiding harsher EU sanctions. However, concerning the clash between France and Turkey over Islam(ism) and freedom of expression, Germany cannot mediate. Similar confrontations will also occupy Germany for the years to come and the German-Turks, now almost 3 million, will be right in the centre of this confrontation.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Sanctions, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Germany, and Mediterranean

317. The Role of France and Germany in the Euro Area Reform

Author:
Dimitra Tsigkou
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The bilateral cooperation between France and Germany has historically played a crucial role in the European integration process. The negotiations between the two most potent European economies have profoundly influenced both the structural arrangements of the European Monetary Union (EMU) as well as the debate on its potential reform, in light of the European sovereign debt crisis. Nonetheless, these two member states have radically different stances when it comes to the strengthening of the euro area, which are related to their divergent economic philosophies. This paper draws on insights from comparative political economy literature in order to explain how the institutional features of different varieties of capitalism have led these member states to adopt divergent growth strategies while participating in the same monetary union. In this respect, it is argued that France and Germany have put forward proposals regarding the Eurozone reform effort, which reflect their endeavor to preserve their comparative institutional advantages and, ultimately, promote their own vision on the deepening of the EMU. The original contribution of this working paper is that it presents and codifies the aforementioned proposals submitted by the European Commission as well as the political views expressed by France and Germany.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Reform, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe, France, and Germany

318. Education and wage inequalities in Greece: access to higher education and its effects on income

Author:
Pery Bazoti
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The educational system in Greece has always been at the center of public discourse, not only for the shortcomings of its design, but also for the quality of the education offered. In this context, during the last decades, the rise in wage inequalities had led the literature to investigate the existence of a possible causal relationship between the level of education and income inequality. The present paper by Pery Bazoti examines the relationship between tertiary education and economic inequality. Taking into consideration the fact that potential inequalities in access to education can hinder the redistributive role of education, the starting point of the study is the access to tertiary education. The design and flaws of the Greek education system prevent university candidates from equal opportunities since the entrance to tertiary education institutions relies heavily on the economic background of their families. The economic crisis highlighted these inequalities mainly through the decline of the disposable household income and exacerbated the already crippled abilities of the education system due to the extensive cuts that took place during this time. Nevertheless, the data reveals that private expenditure -typically related to students’ preparation for exams for entrance into university, despite its decrease, continues to have the larger share of the households’ education budget.
Topic:
Education, Reform, Inequality, and Public Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

319. Bank recapitalizations in Greece: From state-led bailouts to the ownership transfer of banks to foreign hands

Author:
Athanasios Kolliopoulos
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
A decade after the conclusion of the first economic adjustment programme in 2010 and despite three consecutive recapitalizations, Greek banks still suffer from the highest Non-Performing Loans ratio in the Eurozone, with credit expansion in the “real economy” remaining anemic. Furthermore, the overall impact on public debt from government financial support to Greek banks over the last decade was one of the largest among the Eurozone countries. What went wrong? What were the reasons that the domestic financial system ended up in this exceptionally sad state? Why did the recapitalization policy not have the desired outcome? Exploring these questions throughout the literature of responses to banking crises, this paper shows that recapitalization policy in Greece failed to exploit the advantages of the principal forms of bank rescues. In fact, the significant inertia prevailing among authorities and bankers throughout the recapitalizations brought about the ownership transfer of the Greek banking system to foreign hands (“dehellenization”) after the third recapitalization in late 2015. You may acces the full paper by Dr. Athanasios Kolliopoulos, Postdoctoral Researcher at the Athens University of Economics and Business, here.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Banks, Recapitalizations, Bailout, and Banking Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

320. The Greek-Turkish Maritime Disputes: An International Law Perspective

Author:
Efthymios Papastavrdis
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
This Policy Paper by Efthymios Papastavridis, Research Associate of ELIAMEP; Researcher and Part-time Lecturer, University of Oxford Fellow; Academy of Athens & Athens PIL Center, examines the maritime disputes between Greece and Turkey, in particular those concerning maritime delimitation and the breadth of the territorial sea of Greece, against the background of international law. It starts with setting out the historical and legal background of the continental shelf dispute in the Aegean Sea, in particular Greece’s applications before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and the UN Security Council in 1976. Then, the paper considers the different legal positions of Greece and Turkey concerning the issues of the breadth of the territorial sea and the maritime delimitation and assesses these positions under international law. This assessment is followed by the discussion of the various means available under international law for the settlement of the maritime delimitation dispute under international law, in particular, its submission to the ICJ, which has often been at the front line of public and scholarly discourse. The paper concludes that international law provides a sufficient, clear and predictable legal framework for the resolution of the Greek-Turkish maritime dispute, which will be of the outmost benefit for both States and for the Eastern Mediterranean region as a whole.
Topic:
International Law, United Nations, and Maritime
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Greece, Mediterranean, and Aegean Sea