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841. Strategic autonomy for European choices: The key to Europe's shaping power

Author:
Giovanni Grevi
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre
Abstract:
Multi-level competition is on the rise in the international system and the standoff between the US and China risks becoming a defining feature of international affairs. However, the future is not predestined: the European Union (EU) will play a major role in the development of the international order, whether through its absence or its engagement. This Discussion Paper follows recent European Policy Centre publications and debates dedicated to revamping Europe’s approach to an increasingly challenging international context, which have delivered recommendations to: equip Europe with the tools to govern interdependence and mitigate confrontation; take a strong stance in defence of Europe while not endorsing a zero-sum interpretation of global affairs; turn the EU into a global shaping power by pursuing a ‘rules-first’ strategy; and frame Europe’s strategic autonomy in comprehensive terms, including the economic, technological and security and defence dimensions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Affairs, European Union, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and United States of America

842. Preparing the armed forces for disruptive technological changes

Author:
Claire Dhéret, Mihai Palimariciuc, and Natanael Rother
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
European Policy Centre
Abstract:
In this report, Mihai Palimariciuc and Natanael Rother, together with Claire Dhéret, look at the implications new technologies apply on the defence and security sector, while focusing its analysis on the impact on the European armed forces. By doing so, it aims to contribute to the existing body of research, while attempting to provide an answer to the following questions: (1) What is the skill composition of the armed forces in the European Union (EU)?; (2) Which disruptive technologies are most likely to have an impact on the European armed forces?; (3) How is the defence sector preparing itself for the integration of emerging technologies?; (4) Are there any existing best practice examples of armed forces training for the jobs of tomorrow? This report has been prepared in the context of the European Policy Centre (EPC) project “The future of work – Towards a progressive agenda for all” and has received the kind support of the European Organisation of Military Associations and Trade Unions (EUROMIL). It is, to a large extent, based on the discussion held in the EPC workshop “Technological changes in EU security & defence: What are the implications for the military workforce?”, organised on 19 March 2019, and the interviews that were carried out with the workshop’s experts/speakers. When possible, this report provides statistical evidence to the statements made by the workshop’s speakers and participants.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Armed Forces, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe

843. Guns and glory: Criminality, imprisonment and jihadist extremism in Europe

Author:
Amanda Paul and Ian Acheson
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
European Policy Centre
Abstract:
Throughout Europe and beyond, terrorist groups, in particular the so-called Islamic State (ISIS), are increasingly recruiting individuals with backgrounds in crime and using their skills, connections in the criminal world, and experience with law enforcement bodies to finance, plan, prepare and execute their attacks. This recruitment takes place both outside and inside prisons. At the same time, jihadism has provided a specious morality for certain delinquents to rationalise and even justify their criminal activities. In this context, from October 2018 until the summer of 2019, the European Policy Centre (EPC) and the Counter Extremism Project (CEP) have partnered up for a research project on the link between criminality (including organised crime groups, local petty crime gangs or individuals) and jihadist terrorism. This project has culminated in the following publication, in which experts from both organisations carry out an independent assessment of these urgent challenges as they occur in ten European countries (Albania, Belgium, France, Germany, Republic of Ireland, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Sweden, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom). Drawing on this, they have proposed a number of bold recommendations to European governments and EU institutions to counter the ongoing threat of the crime-terror nexus.
Topic:
Crime, Prisons/Penal Systems, Violent Extremism, and Jihad
Political Geography:
Europe

844. Diminishing safeguards, increasing returns: Non-refoulement gaps in the EU return and readmission system

Author:
Olivia Sundberg Diez
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre
Abstract:
Increasing the rate of return of third country nationals without a legal right to remain in the EU looks set to remain a policy priority for this European Commission. Nevertheless, the European Union and member states must ensure that their return and readmission policy complies in full with their international obligations, particularly the principle of non-refoulement. In this discussion paper, Olivia Sundberg Diez argues that recent trends are creating a growing accountability gap over how returns are conducted, with implications for refoulement: First, procedural safeguards are increasingly diminished in order to accelerate returns. The Recast Return Directive proposal, and the Council’s partial general approach, could curtail access to effective remedies within return procedures. Regarding readmission, cooperation with third countries is becoming ever more informal and frequently bypasses democratic and judicial scrutiny. Second, significant divergence remains between national return practices. EU mechanisms are sometimes strategically avoided when pursuing controversial agreements that are EU-wide or involve the Union, leading to a blurring of responsibility. At the same time, problematic bilateral agreements continue to be concluded with limited data and without EU guidance. Third, there is a lack of suitable monitoring mechanisms within return practices and readmission agreements. This hinders the EU and member states’ ability to guarantee returnees’ safety, and is worsened by the recast Return Directive proposals. In particular, considerations regarding the risk of indirect refoulement are notably absent. These three trends amount to structural shortcomings in EU and member states’ efforts to prevent refoulement. This paper analyses the risks at hand so that they can be better addressed in the next legislative cycle, and calls for strengthening safeguards and accountability measures in future readmission cooperation and the negotiations for the recast Return Directive.
Topic:
European Union, Refugees, Asylum, and Non-refoulement
Political Geography:
Europe

845. A geographically fair EU industrial strategy

Author:
Marta Pilati
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Policy Centre
Abstract:
The industrial transformation towards a more sustainable, technological and knowledge-intensive economy can bring prosperity to the EU, but also bears the risk of increasing disparities among the EU territories. On the one hand, some regions are more fit to benefit from these changes. On the other, economic activity, especially one that is knowledge- and innovation-intensive, tends to spatially cluster in areas that are already more advanced. Productivity, innovation, skills and thriving firms will increasingly concentrate in a few wealthy areas, while the less prosperous are excluded from the gains. The current debate on an EU industrial policy overlooks this issue of inequality and instead focuses on competitiveness vis-à-vis global competitors, key technologies and achieving sustainability commitments. While this is important, the focus on the technological frontier, international trade and knowledge-intensive production could create unintended negative consequences due to the lack of an explicit goal for even development and inclusive industrial transition. In this Policy Brief, Policy Analyst Marta Pilati argues that the EU industrial strategy should be centred on the issue of inequality. This can be achieved by challenging misconceived assumptions, critically evaluating past and future policies, and designing measures that target all EU regions and successfully bring them along the transformation.
Topic:
Science and Technology, European Union, Inequality, Trade, and Industry
Political Geography:
Europe

846. An Industry Action Plan for a more competitive, sustainable and strategic European Union

Author:
Marco Giuli, Claire Dhéret, Johan Bjerkem, Marta Pilati, and Stefan Sipka
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Policy Centre
Abstract:
European industry is falling behind. New and unprecedented challenges and megatrends, from a slowdown in global trade to digital disruption and climate change, are making it increasingly difficult to stay ahead of the curve. However, despite these fast-paced developments, industry remains the backbone of the European economy, delivering high-quality jobs, innovation and world-class companies. To retain its competitive edge, the EU must embrace change and renew its industrial strategy. There is growing political momentum for a revived EU industrial strategy, both in the member states and in the new von der Leyen Commission, which pledged to put forward a new industrial strategy as part of a “European Green Deal”. This Issue Paper presents the results of the EPC’s Task Force on an Industry Action Plan for the European Union, which started in February 2018. It argues that in renewing its industrial strategy, the EU should put in place an ‘Industry Action Plan’, complete with new policy tools and concrete industrial initiatives. Beyond mainstreaming industrial competitiveness across policy areas, the Action Plan should provide a more holistic and policy-oriented approach, with a vision towards 2030 that focuses on competitiveness, sustainability and strategic autonomy: Firstly, to ensure that the European industry remains competitive, the EU should aim to play a stronger role in global value chains, with a higher value-added. Secondly, the EU must create the conditions for the European industry, as well as the products and services it provides, to become sustainable and thus contribute to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals and climate-neutrality in alignment with the United Nation’s Paris Agreement. European industry should become fully climate-neutral by 2050 and seize the opportunity to become a global leader in sustainable and circular business models. Finally, an Industry Action Plan should contribute to achieving greater strategic autonomy for Europe by better responding to distorted competition and levering market power, and moving towards more technological sovereignty. Europe should mobilise all the tools at its disposal to become a global leader in developing digital technologies that address the societal, environmental and health challenges of today. This Paper includes a list of recommendations centred around five policy strands: making the Single Market (including competition policy) work; improving innovation policy and achieving technological sovereignty; acting strategically and enforcing reciprocity; ensuring a fair and inclusive industrial transition; and climate-proofing industry with a 2050 climate neutrality roadmap.
Topic:
Climate Change, Science and Technology, European Union, Economy, and Industry
Political Geography:
Europe

847. The European Union makes a new push for democracy

Author:
Andrew Duff
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre
Abstract:
European Union leaders will not be able to dodge the growing constitutional crisis. They are bound to improve the way the Commission president is chosen by reforming the electoral procedure of the European Parliament and by advancing federal political parties. Angela Merkel has dropped her opposition to transnational lists and now agrees with Emmanuel Macron to return to the EU’s institutional agenda. This means treaty change. President von der Leyen promises to help MEPs initiate the reforms and broker the deal in the European Council. Andrew Duff explains what these reforms mean for the balance of power within the Union, and in annexes to this paper, he sets out proposals. He argues that the Conference on the Future of Europe is the right forum to plan how to rectify the weak government of the Union and to strengthen its democratic legitimacy. But he urges swift progress on the related items of Spitzenkandidaten, transnational lists and seat apportionment. Duff favours a direct role for citizens in the work of the Conference, but warns against using this as an excuse for evading tough and complex constitutional questions. The Conference will only succeed if it has a clear and meaningful mandate backed throughout by the three EU institutions.
Topic:
European Union, Institutions, and European Parliament
Political Geography:
Europe

848. The EU should prepare for all UK post-election scenarios

Author:
Larissa Brunner
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Policy Centre
Abstract:
With the UK elections imminent, Larissa Brunner lays out three different scenarios depending on the outcome. None offer any reason for the EU to be optimistic. If the Conservatives win, the Withdrawal Agreement will probably be passed, providing short-term predictability and certainty. But any long-term deal will probably be much worse than the status quo. A Labour victory would mean the opposite: further short-term uncertainty until the new government has renegotiated another Brexit deal and held a second referendum, but a possible closer relationship in the long run (assuming the Leave vote is confirmed). A hung Parliament would combine the worst of both worlds. And then there’s the Scottish question. Regardless of whether the new government needs SNP support or not, the political pressure on London to endorse a second independence vote is likely to increase. The EU should, therefore, not take its eye off the ball and use the current respite in the Brexit process to prepare itself for all of the possible post-election scenarios.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
Britain, United Kingdom, Europe, and Scotland

849. The future of work: Towards a progressive agenda for all

Author:
Claire Dhéret, Simona Guagliardo, and Mihai Palimariciuc
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre
Abstract:
The world of work is changing, fast. Globalisation, coupled with the fragmentation of production and value chains, ageing societies, and digitalisation are all having a transformative impact on European labour markets and are putting pressure on our social welfare systems. The challenges that these disruptions pose are tremendous, and policymakers are still unsure of how to address the implications of the changing nature of work. In this Issue Paper, the result of the European Policy Centre research project “The future of work – Towards a progressive agenda for all”, authors Claire Dhéret, Simona Guagliardo and Mihai Palimariciuc take an in-depth look at how labour is evolving throughout Europe and put forward a set of policy recommendations for the EU, which despite its limited competences, can still be the driving force behind a progressive agenda for the future of work. Their analysis focuses on four different areas: the impact of new technologies on jobs in various sectors; the rise of ‘atypical’ work; the impact of labour market transformations on the welfare state and social contracts; and the effect of policy responses so far. Based on their findings, they argue that instead of trying to push back against new technologies and forms of work, we must embrace the changes brought on by the fourth industrial revolution. At the same time, the EU must endorse and support policies that align welfare state reform with emerging working structures and the conscious and controlled deployment of new technologies. The overall aim should be to establish an inclusive and competitive European labour market that is reinforced by future-fit social protection systems. Previous industrial revolutions upended traditional structures and led to widespread social malaise and suffering in the short term, despite major socio-economic gains in the long run. Many fear that this latest iteration will leave millions of people in precarious employment or even without jobs altogether. But this is not a given. How the future of work unfolds is still in human hands. With sound decision-making, the EU and its member states can harness the benefits of new technologies, counter the polarisation of labour markets and make sure that no one is left behind.
Topic:
Globalization, Science and Technology, Labor Issues, European Union, and Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

850. Moving beyond the 'crisis': Recommendations for the European Commission's communication on migration

Author:
Katharina Bamberg
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre
Abstract:
The year 2015 marked the arrival of an unprecedented number of migrants and refugees in the EU. Soon politicians, policymakers and the press dubbed these events a ‘migration crisis’, and it quickly rose to the top of the political agenda. The European Commission had – and still has – a significant role to play in how the ‘migration crisis’ narrative came about. In its communications, it tended to highlight two factors: the numbers, and the uncontrolled nature of arrivals. In the past five years, it developed from a rather unstructured use of several words and phrases to a coherent story about the ‘crisis’ as a stand-alone and historically unprecedented phenomenon. In this Discussion Paper, however, Katharina Bamberg counters that the Commission’s use of the crisis narrative has not been accurate; neither as a fateful description of what was happening nor as a way to address citizens’ concerns. Instead, it served to frame migration as a security issue and legitimised restrictive policy measures, such as ramped-up border controls and increased cooperation with third countries to curb migration. More problematic, however, is that this narrative has contributed to an environment wherein right-wing populists are given ample room to spread their message. In many member states, they saw their chance to capitalise on voters’ concerns and used the situation as a tool to stir up fear and distrust. Mainstream politicians have subsequently also adopted a sterner discourse on migration, in the hope to appeal to voters who favour more restrictive measures. To counter these dynamics, Bamberg argues that the Commission has to abandon the crisis narrative and instead develop a more proactive and diversified communication strategy.
Topic:
Migration, Public Opinion, European Union, and Refugees
Political Geography:
Europe