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611. Managed competition: Meeting China’s challenge in a multi-vector world

Author:
Franklin D. Kramer
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The world is now witnessing the rise of China, which has a global reach and real implications for the transatlantic community. As new challenges and opportunities unfold, the United States is seeking to formulate an adapted approach to China in cooperation with its closest allies and partners in Europe. In his latest report, Managed Competition: Meeting China’s challenge in a multi-vector world, Atlantic Council distinguished fellow Franklin D. Kramer suggests a strategic approach of “managed competition” to meet the full spectrum of challenges posed by China, including economic and innovation, diplomatic and influence, and security, both hybrid and conventional military. Kramer argues that a successful economics and innovation strategy will require substantially enhanced efforts to support innovation. It will also demand a multi-tier economic approach differentiating strategic sectors and those sectors affected by market distortions from those sectors that would benefit from reciprocal access of commercial products and services to commercial entities allowing for generally free trade in those arenas. In the diplomatic and influence arenas, key elements include multilateral efforts with close US allies and coordination of activities to counter disinformation and subversion. In the security arena, undertaking assurance, resilience, and deterrence measures will be necessary when responding to both hybrid and conventional challenges. Resolution of “one world” challenges, such as climate change, requires the involvement of so significant a factor as China presents. This report is the first publication in a new body of work led by the Scowcroft Center’s Transatlantic Security Initiative focused on understanding and managing the implications of China’s rise for the transatlantic community.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

612. Thinking foreign policy in Russia: Think tanks and grand narratives

Author:
Anton Barbashin and Alexander Graef
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Over the course of the last decade Russian foreign policy has taken critical turns, surprising not only the entire international community but also Russia’s own foreign policy experts. Arguably, the most notable turn came in March 2014 when Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula, setting in motion developments that are continuously shaping Russia, its neighbors, and, to a certain degree, global affairs. Clearly, Russia’s post-Crimean foreign policy does not exist in a vacuum. Its ramifications are colliding with regional and global trends that are effectively destabilizing the post-Cold War international order, creating uncertainties that are defining the contemporary international moment. In this report, we deal with those whose job it is to explain the logic of Russia’s foreign policy turns and to analyze global trends and their meaning for Russia and the rest of the world. Although these experts, as a rule, do not directly influence political decision-making, their debates, as Graeme Herd argues, “set the parameters for foreign policy choices” and “shape elite and public perceptions of the international environment” in Russia.1 Especially in times of crisis and rapid change ideas produced at some earlier stage by experts and think tanks external to the state bureaucracy can suddenly obtain instrumental value and direct policy options. In Part 1, we briefly discuss the role of think tanks in Russian foreign policymaking and present the landscape of Russian think tanks working on foreign policy issues. We distinguish among three basic institutional forms: academic and university-based think tanks, private think tanks, and state-sponsored think tanks. Highlighting the diversity of organizations, we then focus on four state-sponsored think tanks whose size, political contacts, and financial means allow them to dominate the think tank scene in Russia and that represent different ideological angles of a broad, yet also comparatively volatile mainstream: the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy (SVOP), the Valdai Discussion Club, the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), and the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies (RISI). Part 2 follows this selection by looking at Russian foreign policy debates since 2014. We consider how experts writing for these four organizations have approached three major themes: the evolution of the concept of Greater Europe and European Union (EU)-Russia relations, the establishment of the Greater Eurasia narrative in the context of Russia’s declared pivot to the East, and the concepts of multipolarity and the liberal world order.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Civil Society, Diplomacy, and Norms
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Eurasia

613. Over the horizon: NATO joint intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance in the Baltic Sea region

Author:
Mark E. Ferguson, Christopher Harper, and Richard D. Hooker
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Since the Russian occupation of Crimea in 2014, NATO threat perceptions have significantly intensified, particularly with regard to the three Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania that today face the most direct threat of any of NATO’s allies. To deter aggression in the Baltic region, NATO must deploy a credible and effective defense, grounded in a comprehensive understanding of adversary capabilities, actions and intent. A critical element of deterrence and defense is NATO Joint Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance a networked system of sensors, collectors and analysts fielded by the Alliance and its member states to provide situational awareness, early warning and if necessary, decision support for combat operations. Put simply JISR is about getting the right information to the right person, at the right time in the right format. But if a crisis erupted in the Baltic Sea region, is NATO equipped to gather and process the information necessary to give commanders on the ground a clear operating picture? What improvements, if any, could be made to the way NATO and NATO allies collect and process intelligence? To answer these and other questions, the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security assembled a task force of leading regional security experts, led by co-chairs ADM Mark E. Ferguson, III, USN (Ret.) and AM Sir Christopher Harper, RAF (Ret.) and project director Dr. Richard D. Hooker, Jr, that examined NATO’s JISR posture in the Baltic Sea region and offers a series of recommendations to improve both collection and processing of vital intelligence so that NATO is ready to meet any challenge that may be waiting over the horizon.
Topic:
NATO, Intelligence, Drones, and Surveillance
Political Geography:
Europe, Northern Europe, and Baltic Sea

614. Play to Win: Sticking to a Playbook in the Competition with Russia

Author:
George Fust
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
Abstract:
Russia docks a warship in Havana knowing it will provoke a response from the United States. How dare they. The US Navy dispatched a destroyer to shadow the vessel; after all, the United States has the Monroe doctrine to enforce. A few weeks prior, Russia sent around a hundred troops to Venezuela. This also provoked a response, albeit rhetorical. Despite these US reactions, Russia continues to play strategic games. Why did the United States respond to these actions in these ways? And what is the most appropriate response?
Topic:
Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, South America, and North America

615. Democracy and human rights agency for change: Alternative Democratic Practices in Southeast Europe

Author:
Vedran Dzihic, Gazela Pudar Drasko, Felix Henkel, Irena Fiket, Ivan Stefanovski, and Rastislav Dinic
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
Almost twenty-five years after the end of the Cold War, initial euphoria about democratic change in many countries in the East and Southeast of Europe has given way to growing mistrust of political institutions and politicians, and an increasing disaffection with democracy itself. This wide-ranging disaffection has many sources. One of them lies in the increasingly weak performance of governments and the fact that »democracy«, whatever the term meant at the beginning of the transition processes, has failed to deliver on its promises. Politicians and governments no longer seem able or willing to deliver tangible results to their voters. Politics in Southeast Europe produces no or too few goods »for« the people and instead of »delivering«, engages in populist nationalism, politics of fear, and serves particular power interests The contributions to this publication discuss several approaches to active engagement and thinking about alternatives. The first paper examines the question if and how the emancipatory energy found in social movements may help in renewing social democracy (Felix Henkel). The next paper combines theoretical thinking about democratic innovations as opportunities for channelling popular discontent with concrete inquiry into the situation in Southeast Europe (Irena Fiket). The third paper provides an analysis of the Sisyphean task of democratizing societies, using the example of North Macedonia (Ivan Stefanovski). Last but not least, the fourth paper focusses on local struggles and actions in the Serbian city of Niš (Rastislav Dinić). The mobilization in Niš, where activists are in everyday contact with citizens at the local level, creates a deeper foundation for political engagement inscribed into the living context of individuals. This »grounding« together with broader societal utopian horizons of progressive thought provides a framework for the democratic renewal of Southeast European societies, a renewal that should be high on the agenda of the EU and all international actors dealing with the region.
Topic:
Politics, European Union, Democracy, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Europe, Balkans, and Southeast Europe

616. Young Generations for New Balkans visit EU Institutions

Author:
Vedran Dzihic
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
In December 2019 we had another possibility to present our initiative Young Generations for the Balkans – Vision 2030 by visiting European Union institutions in Brussels. We had two days of fruitful meetings at the European Parliament and the European Commission, exchanging views on areas ranging from the state of democratic freedoms in the region to education policies and student performance in the Western Balkans Six. Furthermore, we presented a policy paper that has been developed as a result of this initiative that over the last two years has grown to include 25 members coming from all six EU aspirant countries plus Croatia. Our meetings in Brussels have proved the European Parliament’s and the Commission’s steadfast commitment to the European integration of the Western Balkans, despite the recent setback in this process when in October 2019 the decision to open the long awaited accession negotiations with North Macedonia and Albania was blocked by France, the Netherlands and Denmark. The upcoming year 2020 offers a number of opportunities to reinvigorate the integration process. Those opportunities come not without their own challenges and therefore need to be carefully considered. First, Croatia will hold the presidency of the European Union in the first half of 2020. Zagreb has already declared the European integration of the Western Balkans to be its number one external policy priority. The Western Balkans Summit will supposedly be held in May and some significant progress is expected to happen by that time, including the opening of accession talks with North Macedonia and Albania, as well as visa liberalization for Kosovo. It is nevertheless important for the EU and its member states to be vocal about the setbacks in democratic freedoms that Croatia itself currently experiences. Lack of reaction to these negative trends sets a bad precedent for other EU aspirant countries in the Balkans. Secondly, while the French veto for North Macedonia and the French, Dutch and Danish vetoes for Albania certainly undermined the EU’s credibility in the region, the discussion about these member states’ decision helped bring back the European enlargement back to the top of the EU agenda. The enlargement process, its positive aspects and deficiencies are being widely discussed across the Union and beyond. In this respect, the French proposal of an enlargement process reform has been one of the most discussed ones. It is clear from that document that the French government sets the priority on the rule of law in the Western Balkans Six and conditions any further progress on the integration path on the adoption and implementation of the European law in this area. While rule of law is indeed a special area of concern in the region, with many countries, such as Serbia or Montenegro, backsliding in this respect, it is not possible to make progress in one area of the European acquis without working simultaneously on many others. In other words, the French proposal sees the European integration as a linear process where one chapter of acquis communautaire can be closed after another. However, it does not work this way in reality. Progress on different chapters of the European law must happen in parallel. For example, one cannot complete the law and justice reform without starting reforms in the economic or environmental sectors. In addition, there are concerns about how the French proposal for the enlargement process reform might complicate and prolong it by opening further possibilities for Member States to veto the whole process after taking every new step. Another positive aspect that year 2020 brings for the Western Balkans youth is new educational opportunities in the European Union. The European Commission is set to double its funding of Erasmus+ programs for this region form EUR 33 million to EUR 66 million. National Erasmus+ offices in the region will further promote these opportunities, thereby reaching out to a broader public. This great support in education and training that the EU provides needs to be further enhanced by necessary reforms in the education system at home. In their discussions with the Members of the European Parliament and the European Commission representatives, young experts drew attention to a number of negative trends that will become major problems in future if they are not addressed already today. Thus, democratic backsliding in many countries of the region is worrisome. Journalists are attacked and threatened for expressing opinions critical of the government. In Serbia, for example, the government’s de facto monopoly on television coverage creates erroneous narratives about the role of the EU and its relations with Serbia. It is a common misperception in Serbia that Russia and China are the main foreign contributors to the Serbian economy while in reality and over the years it has been the EU. The EU thus needs to focus more on its communication strategy in the Southeastern Neighborhood. In this context, the Young Generations Initiative also had a discussion with leaders of the Serbian opposition which happened to pay a visit to the European Parliament on the same day. We discussed the intention of the opposition to boycott the next parliamentary elections. We fully shared their criticism of the lack of democratic behavior in Serbia, but many from our group had doubts about the usefulness of boycotting the forthcoming elections that are set to happen in spring 2020. However, it is also a responsibility of the EU to make it clear to President Vučić and his government that the authoritarian way to rule the country – including manipulating the media – is not in compliance with the EU principles and values. Even if progress is made on the issue of Serbian-Kosovar reconciliation, the EU cannot turn a blind eye to the democratic backslides in domestic policy, especially considering that Serbia and Montenegro are accession candidates. A point was raised about the ongoing democratic deficiencies in EU countries, like Hungary and Poland. The situation there is another reason why enlargement is not popular these days. Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán is a good friend of Serbian president Vučić, former North-Macedonian leader Nikola Gruevski was granted asylum in Budapest even though he was convicted of corruption in North Macedonia. In addition, the new EU commissioner for enlargement, Olivér Várhelyi, is claimed to be a loyal companion of Viktor Orbán. These facts are worrisome for many people active in civil society and endanger their efforts to promote democracy and European values in the region. Another concern is an enormous outflow of (educated) people from the region who migrate primarily to Western Europe in search of a better life. In this sense, European enlargement to the Balkans is already happening. While the countries themselves are not members of the EU, young people from the region emigrate to the EU in large numbers, promting many observers to note ironically that if the EU doesn`t come to the Western Balkans, the Western Balkans will come to the EU. Unlike some decades ago, ‘better life’ is increasingly being defined today not in the material terms (people do not migrate primarily because of higher salaries), but as a demand for a stable political system, just and transparent public institutions, livable healthy environment, proper education and corresponding job opportunities. The governments in the region should thus look into creating incentives for professionals to stay in or return to their home countries. This can be done through special tax incentives, more favorable conditions for running businesses and adjusting education systems to the demands of the labor market. The European Union, in its turn, can encourage and offer its support to the regional governments in promoting circular migration among qualified workers. Education is a further problematic area in the Western Balkans. The latest PISA 2018 survey findings conducted by the OECD place four out of the six countries in the region at the bottom of the list. In Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo and North Macedonia every second school student in functionally illiterate, while in Serbia and Montenegro it is every third one. One of the consequences of the failing educational system is the mismatch between what it offers and the demand of the markets. Despite numerous pressing concerns, the youth in the region feel hopeful about their future. They are ambitious and full of ideas, although sometimes they have wrong perceptions of what is possible. Thus, recent polls in North Macedonia indicated that about 60% of young people expect their country to become a part of the European Union. About 75% of those think that it will happen before 2025. This is a very unrealistic assessment that will lead to disappointment and possibly even higher motivation to migrate abroad in the very near future. 5.png6.png In order to create space for young people to realize their ambitions and ideas in the region, without leaving it for the rest of their lives, there is a number of specific issues that can be addressed by the EU as well as regional policy makers already today. In general, political will of the governments in the region is imperative for any genuine reform to be implemented. The EU should encourage this change in the attitude among those governments who still ‘tick the boxes’ just to showcase the result on paper but are not really willing to make thorough changes.
Topic:
Education, European Union, and Youth
Political Geography:
Europe, Balkans, and Southeast Europe

617. Concrete Proposals for the New Balkans in 2030

Author:
Vedran Dzihic
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
The policy paper offers a list of effective, clear-cut, policy-oriented recommendations which blaze the trail for the European engagement with the young generation of the Western Balkans. It paves the way for a reinvigorated and substantial commitment that ensures a more prosperous, EU-oriented vision of the region in the coming decade.
Topic:
Crime, Education, Authoritarianism, European Union, Youth, Regional Integration, and Engagement
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Balkans

618. Political Culture in Southeast Europe. Navigating between Democratic and Authoritarian Beliefs and Practices

Author:
Vedran Dzihic, Gazela Pudar Drasko, Damir Kapidzic, Dario Cepo, Jelena Dzankic, and Jelena Vasiljevic
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
The failure of the countries in Southeast Europe in the last three decades to initiate deep political and societal change that would lead them towards the goal of liberal democracy cannot be explained only by the reference to wars and internal conflicts or by external factors related to their peripheral position in Europe. We argue that political culture has to be taken into consideration to help explain the phenomenon of defective or phony democracy in the Western Balkans. A more forceful expression of emancipatory values by youth, along with greater action capabilities provided by economic growth, could create a more democratic political culture and leaders that are more accountable within a generation. However, it is necessary to have knowledge and understand what we want to influence, because simply supporting ›democracy‹ can go hand in hand with support for authoritarian values. It has to be accepted and fully realized that political conditions and practices are not part of the inherited cultural repertoire, but are shaped by highly complex and intertwined structural and socio-economic processes. Then we will be able to respond with adequate (political and structural) propositions and solutions that might »expand popular capacities« (in the words of Stuart Hall) and bring about the desired change in Southeast Europe.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Democracy, Leadership, and Political Culture
Political Geography:
Europe and Southeast Europe

619. Beyond evidence versus truthiness: toward a symmetrical approach to knowledge and ignorance in policy studies

Author:
Katharina Paul and Christian Haddad
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
Current political developments in established liberal democracies in both Europe and North America have fundamentally called into question the normative relations between truth, knowledge and politics. Whether labeled “posttruth” or truthiness, commentators lament the willful spread and deployment of nonknowledge and ignorance as important political forces. In this paper, we discuss ignorance in its strategic dimension by weaving together insights from the sociology of ignorance with a policy-scientific approach. By means of three empirical vignettes, we demonstrate that ignorance is more than the flipside of knowledge or merely its lack: it is a constitutive feature of the policy process and is thus not uniquely symptomatic of the current era. We conclude by arguing for what we call a symmetrical approach in which ignorance receives the same quality of attention that knowledge has historically received in the policy sciences. To make fully visible the different forms of ignorance that shape policy processes, policy scholars must hone their “agnoto-epistemological sensibilities” to cope with the current challenges and advance a policy science for democracy.
Topic:
Post Truth Politics, Public Policy, Truth, and Misinformation
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

620. The New-Old Elites and their Relations with the EU: The Cases of Egypt and Tunisia

Author:
Cengiz Günay
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
Tunisia and Egypt are two countries that have experienced the fall of longstanding authoritarian leaders. Transitions in both countries then took entirely different directions. This paper deals with the question of whether and how political change in the two countries has affected their foreign policy-making towards the European Union (EU). Building on a liberal international relations (IR) perspective and elite theory, the paper focuses on the politically relevant elites (PRE). PRE shape discourses and influence decision-making processes. Building on the assumption that the composition and discourses of the PRE influence policies and positions towards the EU, the paper analyses the structure of the elites and their disputes over power resources.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democratization, European Union, and Elites
Political Geography:
Europe, North Africa, Egypt, Tunisia, and Mediterranean