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1181. February 2018 Issue

Author:
Charles Lister, Raffaello Pantucci, Michael Horton, Kendall Bianchi, and Miles Hidalgo
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point is proud to mark its 15th year anniversary this month. In this issue’s feature article, Charles Lister tells the inside story of how al-Qa`ida lost control of its Syrian affiliate, drawing on the public statements of several key protagonists as well as interviews with Islamist sources in Syria. In the summer of 2016, al-Qa`ida’s Syrian affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra, announced it was uncoupling from al-Qa`ida and rebranding itself. Al-Qa`ida’s deputy leader at the time, Abu al-Khayr al-Masri, released a message endorsing the move, which even included a previously unheard audio clip of Ayman al-Zawahiri stressing that organizational links should be sacrificed if necessary for unity, creating the impression that al-Qa`ida’s paramount leader had also sanctioned the decision. What appeared to be a carefully choreographed set of announcements made many analysts conclude the split was nothing more than a PR exercise, designed to advance the local aims of al-Qa`ida in Syria by improving al-Nusra’s standing among Syrian rebel groups and insulating it from international pressure. But this interpretation was challenged by a bombshell message released by al-Zawahiri on November 28, 2017. Al-Qa`ida’s leader publicly revealed that not only had he not endorsed the split, but he regarded it as a “a violation of the covenant.” “Al-Zawahiri’s interjection was a watershed moment,” Lister writes, “making clear to the wider global jihadi movement that a real split had taken place between al-Qa`ida and its Syrian affiliate.” One function of the split has been the beginnings of a tense modus vivendi between hardcore al-Qa`ida loyalists in Syria and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (the latest rebrand of al-Nusra). The result, Lister argues, is “a complex counterterrorism threat, in which a locally focused jihadi outfit with a sizable 12,000 fighters continues to control territory, govern people, and maintain sources of local finance, while accepting—even grudgingly—a deeply dangerous, small, tight-knit clique of al-Qa`ida terrorists committed to attacking the West. That image looks eerily similar to the Taliban-al-Qa`ida relationship in Afghanistan in 2000-2001, the consequences of which are well known to all.” Our interview this month is with Deputy Assistant Commissioner Neil Basu, the Senior National Coordinator for Counterterrorism Policing in the United Kingdom. Michael Horton examines the challenges faced by the UAE in its counterinsurgency campaign against al-Qa`ida in Yemen. Kendall Bianchi looks at how Hezbollah has used the mothers of fighters killed in Syria to promote martyrdom. Miles Hidalgo, one of the CTC’s Downing Scholars, provides a first-hand account of the cooperation between Europol and U.S. Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) at Europol’s headquarters in The Hague.
Topic:
Terrorism, Children, Counter-terrorism, Women, Al Qaeda, Conflict, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, Middle East, Lebanon, Syria, and United States of America

1182. May 2018 Issue

Author:
Brian Glyn Williams, Robert Troy Souza, Bryan Price, Mikki Franklin, Daniel Milton, Brian Dodwell, Bennett Clifford, and Christian Jokinen
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
On June 14, 2018, the FIFA World Cup kicks off in Moscow with host Russia facing Saudi Arabia in the opening match. Brian Williams and Robert Souza warn in our cover article that the massive global media spotlight on Russia during the month-long tournament may incentivize jihadi terrorists to carry out attacks on Russian soil to retaliate for the country’s ongoing military intervention against Sunni rebel and jihadi fighters in Syria. Recent years have seen a string of jihadi terrorist attacks and plots in Russia, including the St. Petersburg metro bombing last year, as well as Islamic State plots and attacks targeting soccer venues in Europe. In recent months, propaganda outlets supportive of the Islamic State have released a torrent of threat messages against the tournament. According to Williams and Souza, potential threats include ‘self-starters’ inspired by Islamic State propaganda, foreign fighters returning from Syria and Iraq, and jihadis operating in the northern Caucasus and Tatarstan. Our interview is with New York Times foreign correspondent Rukmini Callimachi, whose ongoing podcast series Caliphate documents the evolution and crimes of the Islamic State. Daniel Milton and Brian Dodwell examine a female guesthouse registry obtained from Islamic State territory. The records on about 1,100 women who transited through the facility shed new light on the women who traveled from overseas to join the group, as well as challenge the dominant narrative in many media reports on the subject. Bennett Clifford explores pro-Islamic State instructional material on the messaging and file-sharing platform Telegram, arguing that the dissemination of know-how on operational and cyber security may be equally as dangerous as instructional material related to carrying out attacks. Christian Jokinen draws on court records to outline the experiences of German foreign fighters who traveled to join al-Shabaab in Somalia earlier this decade. For most of them, the terrorist group turned out to be an unwelcoming host organization.
Topic:
Sports, Islamic State, Journalism, Jihad, and Foreign Fighters
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Middle East, Germany, and Somalia

1183. June/July 2018 Issue

Author:
Kirsten E. Schulze, Brian Dodwell, Dakota Foster, Daniel Milton, David Sterman, and Robin Simcox
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
This summer marks the end of an era for us. Lieutenant Colonel Bryan Price, the Combating Terrorism Center’s longest-serving director, is retiring after 20 years of service in the Army, the last six at the helm of the CTC. During that time, he was a tireless champion for the CTC and its staff and cemented its status as one of the leading research institutions in the terrorism studies field. In a conversation with Brian Dodwell, who is taking over as director, LTC Price reflects on his service at the CTC and the essential need for rigorous research to understand the evolving threat landscape. There is concern that Islamic State-linked terror is on the rise in Southeast Asia. On Sunday, May 13, 2018, three churches in Surabaya, Indonesia, were targeted by suicide bombers comprising one single family of six. The following day, a family of five rode two motorbikes to the entrance of the city’s police headquarters where they blew themselves up. The attacks saw the confluence of several trends in jihadi terrorist plotting—an increased reliance on family networks and an increased embrace of women and children in combat roles. In our cover article, Kirsten Schulze outlines the evolving threat from pro-Islamic State militants in Southeast Asia’s most populous country. Dakota Foster and Daniel Milton build on the the CTC’s previous analysis on the personnel records of just over 4,100 Islamic State foreign fighters to focus on what the records reveal about the smaller subset of 267 children. David Sterman also analyzes the Islamic State’s personnel records to compare and contrast the profile of recruits with previous experience in Libya and Afghanistan. Robin Simcox documents an alleged terrorist conspiracy by an all-female cell guided by an Islamic State cybercoach to plot attacks in the Paris area in 2016.
Topic:
Terrorism, Children, Counter-terrorism, Women, Islamic State, Jihad, Foreign Fighters, and Child Soldiers
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Europe, South Asia, Indonesia, France, Libya, North Africa, and Southeast Asia

1184. November 2018 Issue

Author:
Ali Soufan, Paul Cruickshank, Nuno Tiago Pinto, Damon Mehl, and Michael Munoz
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In our cover article, Ali Soufan profiles Major General Qassem Soleimani, the long-serving head of Iran’s Quds Force who the U.S. government has accused, among other things, of support for terrorism and involvement in a 2011 plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the United States. Soufan outlines how Soleimani has masterminded Tehran’s efforts to project its power across the Middle East using a unique strategy of blending militant and state power, built in part on the model of Hezbollah in Lebanon. Soufan argues that with nationalist sentiment on the rise in Iran in the wake of the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear agreement and the ongoing regional tussle with Saudi Arabia, Soleimani’s popularity would make him the natural front-runner if Iran chooses to adopt a military presidency. Our interview is with Patrick Skinner who during the decade after 9/11 worked in counterterrorism for the CIA in Afghanistan and Iraq. Last year, he began working as a police officer in his hometown of Savannah, Georgia, in an effort to make a difference closer to home. Skinner reflects on how lessons learned from his time as a CIA case officer and as a local police officer could apply to counterterrorism and counterinsurgency strategy and tactics overseas. Drawing on thousands of pages of judicial documents and investigative files, Nuno Pinto outlines the alleged key role played by two Portugal-based extremists in a transnational Islamic State network whose alleged attack plans were thwarted by arrests in Strasbourg and Marseille in November 2016. The case raises concerns that European countries in which security services are less geared up to confront terrorist activity are being used as logistical hubs by jihadi terrorists. In the wake of the Islamic State’s deadly attack on Western tourists in Tajikistan in July 2018, Damon Mehl examines the threat the group poses to the country. With the Islamic State having lost almost all of its territory in Syria and Iraq, Michael Munoz looks at how the group’s propaganda efforts may evolve in the future.
Topic:
Intelligence, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, Propaganda, and Qassem Soleimani
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Tajikistan, France, and Portugal

1185. Europe At The Crossroads: Democracy, Neighborhoods, Migrations

Author:
Jacques Rupnik and Pavel Seifter
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Vaclav Havel Library
Abstract:
or the last two decades two issues have dominated the European agenda: the launch of the euro (deepening) and the Eastern enlargement of the EU (widening). The latter had been largely been considered a success in overcoming of the post-war East-West divide. The for- mer has over the last decade revealed its flaws and opened up another divide inside the EU, between North and South. Both aspects are relevant to understanding the EU’s capacity to respond to the exter- nal crisis it faces: the simultaneous implosion of its Eastern and Southern neighbours. The Ukrainian ‘Euromaidan’ crisis and the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 as well as the emergence of “Islamic State” (ISIS) in the aftermath of the Arab Spring have caught the EU unawares. Both have shattered the EU’s Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) and confronted Europe with new security issues as well as an unprecedented migration wave. The starting point of the Vaclav Havel European Dialogues, was that the interdependence of our fates as Europeans in the context of the above-mentioned crisis was not just a matter for states and EU institutions but also for all citizens living within the Union. Hence the proposal to meet annually in Prague, under the auspices of the Vaclav Havel Library, to discuss with lead- ing European voices on the subject, our present predicament, the interaction of the internal and external crisis, and the ways in which they transform our national and European politics. Three main related themes regarding the crises, their interpretations and our capacity to respond were addressed in successive conferences of the Vaclav Havel European Dialogues be- tween 2014 and 2016: European democracy in times of crisis, the implosion of the EU’s neigh- bourhoods and the related security issues and finally migrations and its impact on our politics.
Topic:
Migration, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Europe

1186. Provoking Debate on Central European Security

Author:
Robert Gawlowski
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
Co-production of public services is an increasingly popular tool in public man- agement, although it is still a new phenomenon in Poland. Despite the attention research- ers give to co-production, some significant gaps remain. In this article, author attempts to examine the legal possibility of implementing co-production by the Polish local government by local initiative and Solecki Fund. The article aims to examine how major Polish cities gathered in Union in Polish Metropolises used local initiatives. The next step in research is to find out how Solecki Fund is spread among rural areas according to statistical data. It is proved that only a handful of local governments in Poland are truly engaged in co-produc- tion. However, Solecki Fund can be shown as an excellent example of citizens’ engagement. It is presented a possible agenda on what can be done to make co-production more popular and used on a regular basis not only in metropolitan but also rural areas.
Topic:
Governance, Public Policy, Welfare, Management, and Public Service
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

1187. "Right to Truth" and Memory Laws: General Rules and Practical Implications

Author:
Grażyna Baranowska and Aleksandra Gliszczynska-Grabias
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
The “right to truth” relates to the obligation of the state to provide information about the circumstances surrounding serious violations of human rights. Despite its increas- ing recognition, the concept raises questions as to its scope and implementation as well as its existence as a free-standing right. Similarly, “memory laws” relate to the way states deal with their past. However, there are certain „memory laws” that, while officially serving as a guarantee for accessing historical truth, lead to its deformation. As a result, an “alterna- tive” truth, based on the will of the legislators, is being imposed. In this article the authors elaborate on the general nature of the new legal phenomenon of the „right to truth”, as a tool of transitional justice, in particular in the context of both providing and abusing historical truth by the legislators, through the instrument of “memory laws”.
Topic:
History, Governance, Legal Theory, Memory, and Truth
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Poland

1188. The Role of Trauma in Romania’s Ontological Security

Author:
Loretta Salajan
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
This paper analyses Romania’s foreign policy during the first post-communist years, by employing a theoretical viewpoint based on ontological security and trauma. It un- covers the elite efforts to secure the post-totalitarian state’s identity and international course. Romania’s search for ontological security featured the articulation of narratives of victim- hood, which were linked with its proclaimed western European identity. The Romanian identity narrative has long struggled between “the West” and “the East”, trying to cope with traumatic historical events. These discursive themes and ontological insecurities were crys- tallized in the controversy surrounding the Romanian-Soviet “Friendship Treaty” (1991). Key Romanian officials displayed different typical responses to cultural trauma and debated the state’s path to ontological security, which was reflected in the foreign policy positions.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, International Affairs, Culture, and Identity
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Romania

1189. Assessing State Support for the Development of International Economic Cooperation: a Case of Polish Trade Support Institutions’ Export Recommendations for Turkey

Author:
Oskar J. Chmiel
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
In times of increasing significance for national policies which support inter- national economic cooperation, a special role is played by state trade support institutions (TSIs). This paper investigates whether such TSIs can be said to operate effectively, through an analysis of one essential element of the support provided to domestic entrepreneurs, namely export recommendations. The recommendations provided by Polish TSIs in respect of Turkey is employed as a case study. The theory of comparative advantage along with a neo- institutional perspective provide the conceptual framing for this analysis, in conjunction with both desk research, document analysis, and selected economic indices. Factors such as trade potential, comparative advantages, and the competitiveness of selected product groups exported by Polish firms to Turkey were also taken into account. The findings largely indi- cate that TSI export recommendations are adequate, and the majority of the recommended industries demonstrated considerable sales opportunities. Nevertheless, some discrepancies were also noted, which should be an issue for further investigation by both researchers and TSI analysts. Furthermore, the case study in this paper demonstrates that the choices within economic promotion policy – despite its partition between variously-oriented TSIs - were made on the basis of economic rationality.
Topic:
Economics, Nationalism, Trade, and Trade Support Institutions
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

1190. Polish FDI in Central Asian Countries

Author:
Krystyna Gomółka
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
Since gaining independence, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan gradually opened their markets to foreign investors. Before Poland’s acces- sion to the European Union, the activities of Polish investors in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Ta- jikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan were based on bilateral treaties concluded by Poland with those countries. Later, except Turkmenistan, they were governed by the partnership and cooperation agreements between the European Communities and their Member States. Despite the ample investment opportunities and favourable conditions for access to the mar- ket, the activity of Polish companies in these markets has not produced a significant effect. Poland invested with more considerable success on the markets in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyz- stan. It made investment attempts in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, leaving out Turkmenistan. The reason why Poland has a weak position in these markets is the distance between the partners and inability of Polish companies to efficiently compete with large multinational companies which have been operating there for years. In the Kazakh market, good invest- ment prospects are available for waste management, petrochemical, mining and road con- struction companies. In Kyrgyzstan, there are cooperation possibilities in the area of modern agricultural and processing technologies and establishment of fruit and vegetable process- ing enterprises. In Tajikistan, enterprises can invest in petroleum and natural gas extraction and exploitation, the fuel market, processing of precious metals and construction of conven- tional and hydroelectric power plants. In Turkmenistan, Polish companies can compete for road, railway and housing construction contracts, whereas in Uzbekistan they can invest in businesses covered by government tax reductions.
Topic:
Markets, Infrastructure, Governance, and Investment
Political Geography:
Europe, Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Asia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan