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1121. New Report on Abuse of State Resources Assessment in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Author:
Erica Shein
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems
Abstract:
This report details findings from an Abuse of State Resources Assessment conducted by the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). As part of a two-year research effort, IFES recently developed a detailed methodology for evaluating a country’s legal framework related to the abuse of state resources (ASR) in elections. Using this methodology, the report draws on detailed desk research as well as a field research mission to BiH in November 2017. Findings are focused on ASR legal provisions, oversight institutions, and enforcement mechanisms. To the extent possible, the report evaluates both the state (national) level of BiH and the entities of the Federation of BiH and Republika Srpska. While in BiH, the team conducted 15 interviews in Sarajevo and Banja Luka with a range of stakeholders. Assessment participants were confident that public awareness of ASR was high. There was general agreement, however, that – more than two decades after the conclusion of a devastating war – the public is largely resigned to accepting such misuses in exchange for peace. The 1995 Dayton Accords that ended the war created a uniquely complex political and electoral structure for the country that remains in place today. This structure creates additional challenges to preventing ASR in campaigns, as ethnic divisions in society are replicated in the political system. Voting blocs are considered pre-determined, so parties representing a particular set of ethnic interests cater to their own constituencies at the expense of broad or programmatic-based coalition building. There is a limited “opposition” willing to advocate against ASR, as essentially all political actors are both beneficiaries and victims of the abuse. This report focuses on three principles for detecting, deterring, and remedying ASR abuses in a manner commensurate with international standards. Principle 1 evaluates the legal framework for addressing three potential avenues for ASR: state personnel, state funds and physical resources, and official government communications. Principle 2 of this report focuses on oversight of the ASR legal framework by independent institutions. Principle 3 of the ASR methodology analyzes the effective enforcement of sanctions and penalties. This report also delves into key contextual features that impact ASR: the public service framework, campaign finance mechanisms, civil society oversight and advocacy, media environment and public information, and public procurement. An overall environment of impunity for perpetrators of the misuse of state resources during elections is further enabled by a variety of factors external to the legal and administrative system, which are explored in this section of the report. The remainder of the report offers a detailed recommendations list and a brief overview of the ASR assessment methodology, as well as an in-depth analysis on each of the areas described above. Based on this analysis, recommendations have been made to strengthen the legal framework with an emphasis on the rights and responsibilities of civil servants, explicitly regulating the use of state funds and other resources, strengthening mandates of oversight and enforcement bodies, creating incentives for improved enforcement, and strengthening weaknesses in the enabling environment that impact ASR.
Topic:
Corruption, Elections, Voting, Election Interference, and State Abuse
Political Geography:
Europe, Balkans, and Bosnia and Herzegovina

1122. Economic Sanction Games among the US, the EU and Russia: Payoffs and Potential Effects

Author:
Dong Yan and Li Chunding
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Economic sanction of the US and EU on Russia because of Ukraine crisis in 2014 lasts for a long time and is still a hot policy topic. This paper uses a 16-country or region numerical general equilibrium model with trade cost and exogenous trade imbalance to explore this three-country economic sanction game payoffs, and simulate the effects of sanctions on individual countries. Our analysis find that all sanction involved countries will be hurt, but comparatively Russia will be hurt more, and the US and EU will be hurt less. Sanction measures of EU have larger impacts to Russia than the US measures, and meanwhile Russian counter-sanction measures will generate larger impacts on the EU than on the US. From the economic perspective, the optimal choice for US and EU is to give up sanction measures to Russia, and retaliation is Russia’s optimal choice when faced with sanction measures. Countries out of the sanction game will gain because of trade diversion effects.
Topic:
Economics, Sanctions, European Union, and Economy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and United States of America

1123. EU, China Have Common Interests to Cope With US Protectionism” - Analyst

Author:
Su Qingyi
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Abstract:
The Chinese government has announced plans to implement retaliatory duties on $34 billion worth of US goods following the introduction of similar measures by Washington. Sputnik has discussed the issue of the looming trade war with Qingyi Su, Senior Research Fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).
Topic:
Economics, Tariffs, and Trade Wars
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1124. An Evaluation of the United States’ Electoral Process

Author:
Chad Vickery and Heather Szilagyi
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems
Abstract:
he 2016 elections brought into view serious threats to the United States’ (U.S.) electoral process, though much recent attention has focused on cybersecurity and foreign interference. The U.S. has traditionally benefited from high levels of trust in the electoral process and its outcomes, but that inherent trust has been declining in recent years. The International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) routinely conducts comprehensive assessments and offers advice on how countries around the world can reform their elections to better align with international standards and best practices. However, more established democracies like the U.S. are rarely scrutinized by the election practitioner community in the same manner.
Topic:
Elections, Cybersecurity, Foreign Interference, and Election Interference
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and North America

1125. Energy as a tool of foreign policy of authoritarian states, in particular Russia

Author:
Rem Korteweg
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
This study is originally published by the Directorate General for External Policies of the Union of the Policy Department for External Relations of the European Parliament and was requested by the European Parliament's Committee on Foreign Affairs (AFET committee). Russia and other energy-rich authoritarian states use their energy exports for economic gains but also as a tool of foreign policy leverage. This study by Rem Korteweg looks at the ways and methods these states have used to exert political pressure through their energy supplies, and what it means for the European Union. Most energy-rich authoritarian states use their energy wealth to ensure regime survival. But, more than others, Russia uses its energy wealth as well to protect and promote its interests in its ‘near abroad’ and to make its geopolitical influence felt further afield, including in Europe. It uses gas supplies to punish and to reward, affecting both transit states and end-consumers. This publication explores how supply disruptions, price discounts or hikes, and alternative transit routes such as Nord Stream 2 and Turkish Stream, are used by Russia to further its foreign policy ambitions, feeding suspicions about its geopolitical motives. The lack of transparency about Russia’s energy policy decisions contributes to this. In response, the EU is building an Energy Union based around the Third Energy Package, a more integrated European market and diversified supplies. By investing in new supplies, such as LNG, and completing a liberalised energy market, the EU will be better able to withstand such energy coercion and develop a more effective EU foreign policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, Authoritarianism, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Eurasia

1126. Innovation in EU migration policy: towards a truly comprehensive approach to migration

Author:
Willemijn Tiekstra and Wouter Zweers
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The increased arrival of refugees and migrants in Italy in 2015 revealed that the EU was not prepared to cope with an increased inflow of refugees and migrants into its territory. In 2015, the year that saw an unprecedented number of irregular migrants and refugees crossing the Mediterranean, a comprehensive approach to migration was adopted in the Valletta Action Plan, acknowledging that the management of irregular migration is a responsibility for both African and EU leaders. This report holds that, three years after Valletta, serious challenges remain in implementing the building blocks of the EU’s migration approach. Whereas political positions among Member States are converging towards a mode of securitising borders, authors Willemijn Tiekstra and Wouter Zweers argue in their report that a more sustainable and comprehensive approach is needed, taking into account the interests and stability of countries of origin and transit. Based on field research in Senegal, Italy,and Poland, as well as complementary desk research, it seeks to identify best practices from national experiences and bilateral agreements that are feasible within the current European political landscape. Delivering on promised commitments is crucial for all actors involved to make the system work. A failure to implement the comprehensive approach to migration directly affects the EU’s external credibility, endangering the EU’s negotiating position with third countries. Similarly, a failure to resolve deadlock on the internal dimension negatively affects popular support for the EU, putting at risk the European project as a whole.
Topic:
Migration, European Union, and Refugees
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

1127. Connectivity Between Asia and Europe: ASEM Connectivity Inventory

Author:
Maaike Okano-Heijmans, Wouter Zweers, and Brigitte Dekker
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
In preparation for the 12th ASEM Summit and for taking the ASEM connectivity task forward, the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) and the Clingendael Institute prepared the 'ASEM Connectivity Inventory' for the Asia Europe Meeting Pathfinders Group on Connectivity (APGC). The Report contains enumerations and qualitative analysis of ASEM connectivity activities since 2014, and gives recommendations on structure, processes, and coordination in the ASEM connectivity mechanisms. The report was presented to the APGC and the senior officials meeting in September, 2018.
Topic:
Connectivity and ASEM
Political Geography:
Europe and Asia

1128. Caught in the middle: A human rights and peace-building approach to migration governance in the Sahel

Author:
Fransje Molenaar, Jérôme Tubiana, and Clotilde Warin
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
In recent years, the Sahel region has attracted the attention of European policy makers aiming to prevent Europe-bound irregular migrants from reaching the Libyan coastline. Policies implemented under this approach propose to address the root causes of irregular migration from non-EU countries, such as through support for socio-economic development of countries of origin, the dismantling of smuggling and trafficking networks, and the definition of actions for the better application of return policies. Does this approach to mixed migration governance take sufficient stock of the larger development and stability contexts within which irregular migration and human smuggling takes place? Does migration governance suffciently address the human rights consequences and destabilising effects that migratory movements and the policies that address them may have? And how could human rights and peace-building principles – that is, processes and measures that contribute to a society’s capacity to address conflict in a constructive manner – be incorporated to achieve more holistic and conflict-sensitive migration governance? In their report authors Fransje Molenaar, Jérôme Tubiana and Clotilde Warin address these issues and find that the implementation of migration policies in the Sahel has contributed to an increase in human rights abuses and risks for migrants and refugees, as well as rises in human trafficking and forced labour. They argue that national and sub-national institutions and capacities be supported to take the lead in comprehensive and sustainable migration management and migrant protection presenting the following recommendations: Contribute to the development of (sub)national migrant protection frameworks and structures; Ensure that migration governance benefits local communities and addresses the (perceived) negative effects of migration on host communities; Strengthen community security and ensure that securitised migration policies do not harm local communities. In their conclusion, the authors also offer concrete pointers to implement these recommendations.
Topic:
Human Rights, Migration, Governance, Trafficking, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Libya, and Sahel

1129. European strategic autonomy: Policy Brief Going it alone?

Author:
Margriet Drent
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
With the boost that has been given to the EU’s defence policy, some of the St. Malo reflexes have reoccurred in Washington. Mostly, there are some misgivings in the United States about the exact meaning of ‘European strategic autonomy’, as it featured in the 2016 EU Global Strategy. But also in Europe, it is not clear what strategic autonomy means. In light of the increasing uncertainty among the EU and European NATO-members about the solidity of the American security guarantees, strategic autonomy gains a new quality. If Europe were forced ‘to go it alone’, what would that take, both in terms of conventional and nuclear capabilities? In her latest Policy Brief author Margriet Drent concludes that European countries face a dilemma: they have to simultaneously invest in their strategic autonomy and in keeping the United States committed to their security.
Topic:
International Relations, Defense Policy, European Union, and Autonomy
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America

1130. Rising Tensions Between Policy Brief the West and Russia: What Role For Arms Control?

Author:
Peter van Ham
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Today, political relations between the West and Russia have entered a new mini-Ice Age, existing arms control arrangements are either dysfunctional or simply not used, and both sides are improving their military readiness. The obvious question that needs to be raised is whether, and if so how, these escalating tensions can be contained, or even reduced? This Policy Brief offers insight into the most pressing concerns, focusing on areas and issues where matters could escalate fastest. It asks what role can still be foreseen for arms control and concludes with a call for transatlantic unity and a stronger role for NATO to counter Russia’s military and geopolitical gambit. It suggests that the classic two-pronged “Harmel approach” (based on deterrence and détente) should be restored. This includes a mix of US-Russian high summitry and the revitalisation of the NATO-Russia Council as part of a broad and far-reaching (military) risk reduction process.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Eurasia