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641. The European energy crisis: Shock therapy for the EU’s clean energy transition

Author:
Simon Dekeyrel
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
In 2022, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and weaponisation of Europe's gas supplies sparked an unprecedented energy crisis in the EU. This was made worse because the French nuclear fleet was partially shut down, and the summer droughts in the EU made it difficult to generate electricity from water. This Policy Brief analyses how effectively the EU and its member states have aligned their actions in addressing the energy crisis with the strategic goals of the European Green Deal. It also reflects on the outlook and main challenges for the EU’s clean energy transition and offers recommendations for the way forward.
Topic:
European Union, Gas, Green Deal, Energy Crisis, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe

642. Navigating the New Pact on Migration and Asylum in the shadow of Non-Europe

Author:
Alberto-Horst Neidhardt
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
In December 2023, the European Parliament and Council secured a political agreement on the New Pact on Migration and Asylum, bringing the reforms closer to implementation. Some see the measures as a political victory for European policymakers, clearing the way for more unified responses. However, the regulations could in fact lead to an 'age of non-Europe' in migration and asylum policy. This Discussion Paper analyses the issues arising from the reforms, which could consolidate states' power at the expense of community decision-making. Additionally, there is uncertainty about how the new system will function and its impact on the ground. This may lead member states to push even harder to outsource responsibilities to third countries outside the EU’s scrutiny. This is not the time for complacency. Attention must be devoted to the finalisation of the legislative texts and the development of implementation plans, as well as the identification of systemic and long-term needs, from financial support to monitoring.
Topic:
Migration, Treaties and Agreements, Asylum, European Parliament, and Council of Europe
Political Geography:
Europe

643. NATO and the European Union: Bridging the gap

Author:
Andrew Duff
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
In this Discussion Paper, Andrew Duff examines how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has exposed structural flaws in how the West organises its European defence and how the European Union and NATO have struggled to coordinate, risking duplication and competition. Despite largely overlapping membership, neither organisation has been able to realise conventional solid defence forces. Europe’s armaments industries remain largely fragmented. Ukraine’s application to join the EU and NATO upturns the status quo. The author analyses how the Union's political and financial heft can best be combined with the Atlantic Alliance's military strength and recommends forging a permanent organic link between the two at the executive level. However, a joint command will enhance the EU’s development in security and defence, revitalise NATO, and ensure that the US and UK remain engaged in Europe.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, European Union, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Europe

644. Russia’s war against Ukraine: Lessons on infrastructure security and new technologies

Author:
Auriane Técourt and Maria Martisiute
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
In 2022, Russia hit Ukraine with a major cyberattack and unleashed a full-scale war of aggression. This includes new technologies and AI-enabled capabilities such as the Bylina electronic warfare command-and-control system. Nord Stream and the Balticconnector also fell victim to sabotage attacks by hostile actors. In this Policy Brief, it is highlighted that the EU has stepped up its resilience and cybersecurity of critical infrastructure. However, the capacity to leverage innovative technologies and defensive AI remains underdeveloped. Furthermore, the protection of industrial control systems (ICS) remains unaddressed. As Russia upgrades its 2030 National AI Development Strategy, there is an urgency to integrate the security of industrial controls into the EU’s approach to the cybersecurity of critical infrastructure before Moscow strikes with deadlier offensives. It is also time to start building a measured, albeit scalable, deployment plan for new technologies that may be AI-enabled for European critical infrastructure in connectivity with Ukraine and Moldova. The Paper explains that the EU has strengthened cybersecurity and resilience of critical infrastructure, but there is still room for improvement. Considering the pace at which new technologies and AI-enabled technologies are developing, the following steps would enhance the security of European infrastructure: Possible attack scenarios. Mandatory SOCs and cyber hubs. Industrial control systems (ICS). Synergies between the EU and NATO. A deployment plan for new technologies that may include AI.
Topic:
Infrastructure, European Union, Cybersecurity, Artificial Intelligence, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

645. Next Commissioner for Enlargement: Which criteria should inform the selection?

Author:
Berta López Domènech
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
With war raging on European soil, the European Union (EU) needs competent leadership – ready and willing to tackle head-on the polycrisis and polytransition confronting the Union and its member states. Enlargement will be one of the most politically heavy dossiers in the upcoming politico-institutional cycle. Therefore, the choice of the European Commissioner in charge of this dossier is of utmost importance. This Policy Brief examines what the candidate needs to possess for the role: Commitment to EU democratic values. Support for enlargement. Capacity to forge consensus among member states and candidates. Trustworthiness in the eyes of all relevant stakeholders. The Paper argues that without this combination of credentials, it is difficult to imagine how the next Commissioner for Enlargement will translate into practice the member states’ current discourse about the geopolitical imperative of delivering a wider and more secure Union of 30+ countries.
Topic:
European Union, Regional Integration, and Enlargement
Political Geography:
Europe

646. Keeping the Promise: Reform of governance in the enlarged European Union

Author:
Andrew Duff
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
Provoked by Putin, the EU is having to rapidly revise its strategy for the future of Europe. Enlargement, long dormant, is now a top geopolitical priority. Defence has become a principal driver of European integration. This Discussion Paper examines how the two themes of widening and deepening the Union are interconnected. Ursula von der Leyen’s second Commission is preparing pre-enlargement reforms of EU common policies and decision-making processes. Despite disagreements among member states and nationalist political parties, the presumption of enlargement and the necessity of self-defence leaves the EU little choice but to continue on its federative path. No institution will escape the imperative of reform. Negotiations to expand the size and compass of the EU budget will be particularly difficult. Treaty change is inevitable — and should be well prepared by an expert reflection group. Faced with accelerating European unity, the UK will, sooner than expected, have to confront the issue of EU membership.
Topic:
Governance, Reform, European Union, Geopolitics, and Enlargement
Political Geography:
Europe

647. Security and Eastern Enlargement: Bridging the Gap for Wartime EU Accession

Author:
Monika Sus and Michał Matlak
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
Given the unprecedented situation of wartime accession and the significant security implications of Ukraine’s EU membership for the Union and its Eastern neighbourhood, the EU should consider aligning the enlargement process with its broader security policy toward the candidate country. Failure to do so risks stalling the enlargement agenda due to unresolved security challenges. While some experts argue that linking security and enlargement policies could further complicate an already complex negotiation process, the opposite needs to be discussed. This Policy Brief proposes three institutional ideas that would facilitate integrating security concerns into the enlargement process without risking prolonging it. This includes examining the enlargement methodology, better collaboration between relevant Directorates-General (DGs), commissioners responsible for security, defence and enlargement, and the European External Action Service, as well as advancing the debate about the operationalisation of Art 42.7 to provide Ukraine with security guarantees in coordination with NATO.
Topic:
Security, European Union, Russia-Ukraine War, and Enlargement
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

648. The ‘Grain from Ukraine’ Initiative – A crucial contribution to African food security

Author:
Pavlo Martyshev, Mariia Bogonos, Valentyn Litvinov, and Roksolana Nazarkina
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
This discussion paper estimates the effect of Ukraine’s ‘Grain from Ukraine’ humanitarian initiative on food security in African and MENA countries targeted by the programme. Ukraine is one of the largest exporters of agricultural produce, accounting for almost half of the world’s sunflower oil exports, 13% of corn exports, and 8% of wheat exports in the 2020/21 marketing year. While Russia’s war against Ukraine negatively affected global food security, it especially impacted African countries, since Ukraine is an essential contributor to local food security there. Of the total number of wheat and sunflower oil imports to Africa in 2021, those from Ukraine accounted for 16% and 23% respectively. Moreover, the growth of undernourishment on the continent is explained by a number of local factors: climate extremes, military conflicts, economic shocks, and disruption of food supply chains. The tight food supply in the region underscores the importance of Ukraine’s presence on the local markets. Our estimates, based on the World Food Programme methodology for calculating the number of people supported by the initiative, show that it has already supported around 16.2 million people in Africa and the Middle East over periods from 1 to 8 months. This is equivalent to feeding around 2 million people for one year. Using the acute food insecurity data from the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) for 2023, we calculate that the programme reduced the number of people facing moderate to strong food insecurity (IPC 3-5) by 1.4% in the African and Middle Eastern countries supported in the period from November 2022 to August 2024. Meanwhile, the number of people facing intense food insecurity (IPC 4-5) decreased by about 8% during this period. Overall, the programme has huge potential for development, which should be based on the humanitarian-development nexus that aims for a long-term reduction in hunger. Four main policy options could be considered in this respect: 1. Integrating the development programmes into agricultural production in Africa 2. Pursuing facilitation of agri-food trade with African countries 3. Increasing the supply of processed food products to low-income countries 4. Informing donors of the urgent priorities in maintaining African food security
Topic:
Agriculture, Food Security, Exports, Trade, Russia-Ukraine War, and Wheat
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Ukraine

649. Countering Authoritarian Propaganda: Perceived Expertise and Persuasiveness

Author:
Isabelle DeSisto, Laura Howells, Grigore Pop-Eleches, and Jacob Tucker
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:
When do anti-regime messages persuade people living in authoritarian regimes to update their political attitudes? The literature on authoritarian politics has devoted considerable attention to understanding how pro-regime propaganda affects citizens’ attitudes, but far less to the converse: when and how anti-regime messaging is effective at bursting the regime’s information bubble. We argue that source credibility helps explain why some kinds of anti-regime messages influence opinions while others do not. To illustrate this argument, we draw on observational and experimental survey data collected in Russia after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. We pair time-series data with three survey experiments, which together indicate that messages criticizing the regime and its policies are more persuasive when they come from people with subject-matter expertise.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Propaganda, Russia-Ukraine War, and Persuasion
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Eurasia

650. Unloved but indispensable: Political parties in Europe

Author:
Paul McCarthy, Thibault Muzergues, and Patrick Quirk
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The rise of political parties in their modern form in Europe has historically been associated with the coming of age of mass politics, and the subsequent need for representation of sectional interests (in other words, the interests of specific social classes). Following the end of World War II in Western Europe, and the end of the Cold War in Central and Eastern Europe, political parties became a central component of European democracies. Scholars often describe the 1960s and 1970s as the golden age of (Western) European democratic parties. However, the honeymoon did not last beyond this period. A long decline has made political parties much less relevant to modern politics, as they were often replaced by personalized politics and the politicization of one-issue social movements throughout the 1990s and 2000s. Political parties today are generally unpopular and distrusted by the wider public. Yet what is remarkable is that despite their decline and a crisis that many had described as terminal, European parties have remained at the center of the game in most countries’ political systems. Perhaps even more importantly, they have proved indispensable for the functioning of democracy in Europe: in the Netherlands, despite an extremely atomized party system and a global rejection of parties, no agreement on a coalition government can be passed without negotiations among them. In Italy, the Five Star Movement soon understood that it needed to convert into a much more classical political party to implement its political program: it built more traditional structures and adopted a clear positioning on the very left-right divide that it had claimed to supersede a few years before. The experience of the past decade has shown that despite their unpopularity, political parties remain indispensable for the functioning of democracies in Europe—when they are present, plural, and organized, democracy is doing well. When they are not, or when the party system is unbalanced, democracies suffer and even backslide. To prove this assertion, this paper will look at four telling examples in recent European history, taking from the experiences of Romania, Spain, France, and Hungary.
Topic:
Politics, Reform, Elections, Political Parties, and Democratic Transitions
Political Geography:
Europe