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21. Framing Russia’s Mediterranean Return: Stages, Roots and Logics

Author:
Dario Cristiani
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Russia’s return as a major geostrategic actor in the Mediterranean is one of the most significant trends characterising this area over the past few years. Part of a broader geopolitical pluralization of this space, Russia’s 2015 intervention in Syria marked a new phase in Moscow’s Mediterranean engagement. Based on a stringent logic of intervening where other powers leave strategic vacuums, Russia has succeeded to carve out an increasingly central role in Mediterranean equilibria, despite its limited resources. Russian diplomatic and economic support for the Syrian regime in Damascus had steadily increased since the outbreak of the Syrian revolution in 2011. Yet, it was Moscow’s direct military intervention in September 2015 that signalled a decisive upgrade in engagement. Moscow’s military involvement shifted the tide of the conflict, proving decisive in avoiding the collapse of the Syrian regime, which is also backed by Iran and the Lebanese group Hezbollah.
Topic:
Civil War, Diplomacy, Geopolitics, Economy, Military Intervention, and Syrian War
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, Middle East, and Syria

22. The evolution of Belarusian public sector: From command economy to state capitalism?

Author:
Aliaksandr Papko
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Belarus was among the few post-communist countries to resign from comprehensive market reforms and attempt to improve the efficiency of the economy through administrative means, leaving market mechanisms only an auxiliary role. Since its inception, the ‘Belarusian economic model’ has undergone several revisions of a de-statisation and de-regulation kind, but still the Belarusian economy remains dominated by the state. This paper analyses the characteristic features of the Belarusian economic system – especially those related to the public sector – as well as its evolution over time during the period following its independence. The paper concludes that during the post-Soviet period, the Belarusian economy evolved from a quasi-Soviet system based on state property, state planning, support to inefficient enterprises and the massive redistribution of funds to a more flexible hybrid model where the public sector still remains the core of the economy. The case of Belarus shows that presently there is no appropriate theoretical perspective which, in an unmodified form, could be applied to study this type of economic system. Therefore, a new perspective based on an already existing but updated approach or a multidisciplinary approach that incorporates the duality of the Belarusian economy is required.
Topic:
Reform, Economy, Economic Growth, Public Sector, Trade, and State Capitalism
Political Geography:
Eurasia and Belarus

23. Russia Strives for an Oil and Gas Resurgence

Author:
Pavel K. Baev
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
As the global economy—animated by the arrival of multiple COVID-19 vaccines—hopes for the first signs of recovery, expectations also rise in Russia for an accompanying surge in demand for oil and natural gas and renewed prominence of energy geopolitics in foreign policy-making. President Vladimir Putin is a firm believer in hydrocarbons as the world’s main energy source and a sceptic of “green agendas,” even if Chinese President Xi Jinping has subscribed to the pledge to curtail emissions (TASS, September 30). Russia’s Energy Strategy 2035, approved in June 2020, sets ambitious goals for expanding oil and gas extraction and defines the shifts in the world markets toward carbon-neutral energy production as a major challenge (Vedomosti, May 19; see EDM, June 2). Mainstream Russian experts dismiss the European Union’s post-crisis recovery plans that include new incentives for developing zero-carbon-emission energy sources; defiantly, they project that Russian energy exports to the European market will continue to expand (Kommersant, December 3).
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, Gas, and Economy
Political Geography:
Russia and Eurasia

24. Taking stock: Where are geopolitics headed in the COVID-19 era?

Author:
Jeffrey Cimmino, Matthew Kroenig, and Barry Pavel
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic is a strategic shock, and its almost immediate, damaging effects on the global economy constitute a secondary disruption to global order. Additional secondary strategic shocks (e.g., in the developing world) are looming. Together, these developments pose arguably the greatest threat to the global order since World War II. In the aftermath of that conflict, the United States and its allies established a rules-based international system that has guaranteed freedom, peace, and prosperity for decades. If the United States and its allies do not act effectively, the pandemic could upend this order. This issue brief considers the current state of the pandemic and how it has strained the global rules-based order over the past few months. First, it considers the origins of the novel coronavirus and how it spread around the world. Next, it examines how COVID-19 has exacerbated or created pressure points in the global order, highlights uncertainties ahead, and provides recommendations to the United States and its partners for shaping the post-COVID-19 world.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, Politics, European Union, Economy, Business, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Russia, China, South Asia, Eurasia, India, Taiwan, Asia, North America, Korea, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

25. Pushing back against Russian aggression: Legislative options

Author:
Daniel Fried and Brian O'Toole
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
US President Donald J. Trump’s administration has found it challenging to maintain a consistent position with respect to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s repression at home and aggression abroad. It may again fall to Congress to attempt to counter Russia’s election interference, already ongoing in the form of disinformation; back Ukraine as its government seeks to deal with a Russian invasion; and contend with other forms of Kremlin aggression. In “Pushing Back against Russian Aggression – Legislative Options” authors Daniel Fried, the Weiser Family Distinguished Fellow at the Atlantic Council, and Brian O’Toole, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, evaluate two Russia sanctions bills, the Defending Elections from Threats by Establishing Redlines (DETER) and the Defending American Security Against Kremlin Aggression Act (DASKA), as tools to forestall new Russian interference in US elections. The authors walk readers through a set of sanctions escalatory measures—covering finance, energy, and the cyber sector – that both sanctions bills draw from. In sum, Fried and O’Toole conclude that DASKA’s sanctions are more measured and thus more implementable. By contrast, the authors deem DETER’s sanctions on financial institutions as simply too harsh with excessive spillover risk to US and Western financial markets to be implementable.
Topic:
Sanctions, Economy, Business, and Legislation
Political Geography:
Russia and Eurasia

26. China’s Activities in the South Caucasus: Issue 1, 29.06.2020 – 26.07.2020

Author:
Medea Ivaniadze
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
The digest covers China’s political, diplomatic, economic and other activities in the South Caucasus region and relations between China and the South Caucasus countries. It relies on a wide variety of sources, including the Chinese media. It is worth noting that the Chinese media is controlled by the Communist Party of China (according to the World Press Freedom Index China is nearly at the bottom of the list and ranks 177th out of 180 countries).
Topic:
Diplomacy, Politics, Media, Economy, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:
China, Eurasia, Caucasus, Asia, and South Caucasus

27. Quarterly Review of the Georgian Economy (III Quarter, 2019)

Author:
Merab Kakulia, Nodar Kapanadze, and Lela Bakhtadze
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
The Quarterly Review of the Georgian Economy is an electronic publication of the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies (Rondeli Foundation), which aims at informing readers about the ongoing processes within the country’s economy. The review is based on data of official statistics and on expert estimates.
Topic:
Debt, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, Budget, Employment, Economy, Economic Growth, Banks, and Inflation
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Caucasus, and Georgia

28. A preliminary assessment of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Azerbaijani economy

Author:
CESD Research Team
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
Azerbaijan became the country among the post-soviet countries, that allocated the largest share of GDP, in order to eliminate the economic challenges caused due to the outbreak of COVID-19. Providing favorable economic conditions in the post-pandemic period is as crucial as supporting the economy during the period of the pandemic. It is an undeniable fact that the impact of the pandemic on the economy might be fully assessed only over time. Experience demonstrates that early evaluation may lead to even greater recession and instability. This paper aims to demonstrate the challenges faced by Azerbaijan in the framework of the fight against a pandemic. Since the economy of a country was affected, a detailed analysis may provide a better understanding of the outcome, enlightening the areas which need more support and development.
Topic:
Development, Economy, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Caucasus, and Azerbaijan

29. China’s Activities in the South Caucasus: Issue 2, 27.07.2020 – 23.08.2020

Author:
Medea Ivaniadze
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
The digest covers China’s political, diplomatic, economic and other activities in the South Caucasus region and relations between China and the South Caucasus countries. It relies on a wide variety of sources, including the Chinese media. It is worth noting that the Chinese media is controlled by the Communist Party of China (according to the World Press Freedom Index China is nearly at the bottom of the list and ranks 177th out of 180 countries)
Topic:
Diplomacy, Politics, Media, Economy, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:
China, Eurasia, Caucasus, Georgia, and South Caucasus

30. Impact of Anti-Pandemic Restrictions and Government Anti-Crisis Measures on Employment, Incomes and the Poverty Level in Georgia

Author:
Merab Kakulia and Nodar Kapanadze
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic has posed unprecedented challenges to the world economy. It is no coincidence that the crisis provoked by the pandemic has been compared to the largest economic crises of the last hundred years such as the “Great Depression” of 1929-1933 and the “Great Recession” of 2008-2009. According to the International Monetary Fund, the “Great Lockdown” (Gopinath, 2020) has simultaneously weakened economic activity around the world, sharply reduced household consumption, particularly harmed the service sector and severely hit the labor market and international trade (IMF, 2020). The result was a massive loss of jobs and a depletion of regular sources of income for households, precipitating a real threat of a sharp rise in poverty. Clearly, Georgia has not been able to avoid these events, even more so since the service sector particularly affected by the pandemic crisis, including the tourism industry, accounts for 74 percent of the country's economy (Geostat, 2019). Although the spread of the disease was initially relatively small in the face of anti-pandemic restrictions imposed by the government, the country's economy has suffered greatly. To at least partially offset the severe socio-economic consequences caused by the restrictions to prevent the further spread of COVID-19, including forced home isolation, governments around the world, among them the Georgian government, have started to implement anti-crisis measures. However, the assessment of their effectiveness proved to be difficult in the view of an almost continuous increase in the scale of the pandemic. The following study aims to evaluate the: - Direct impact of state anti-pandemic restrictions on employment and unemployment; - Role of government emergency anti-crisis measures in mitigating the negative impact of antipandemic restrictions, including lockdowns, on employment and unemployment; - Employment and unemployment forecast for 2020-2021, taking into account the results of the first wave of the pandemic; - Direct impact of anti-pandemic restrictions on the dynamics and structure of household incomes; - Role of government emergency anti-crisis measures in neutralizing the negative impact of anti-pandemic restrictions on household incomes; - Household income forecast for 2020-2021, taking into account the results of the first wave of the pandemic; - Direct impact of anti-pandemic restrictions on the poverty level according to the subsistence minimum (extreme poverty line); - Role of government emergency anti-crisis measures in preventing a rise of extreme poverty as a result of anti-pandemic restrictions; - Forecast of extreme poverty levels for 2020-2021 taking into account the results of the first wave of the pandemic; - Effectiveness of government emergency anti-crisis measures.
Topic:
Economy, Crisis Management, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Caucasus, and Georgia