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221. Ariel Cohen on Iraq, Oil, and US Foreign Policy

Author:
Nermeen Shaikh
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
Ariel Cohen is Senior Research Fellow in Russian and Eurasian Studies and International Energy Security at the Sarah and Douglas Allison Center of the Davis Institute for International Studies at the Heritage Foundation. He is a member of the Council of Foreign Relations, the International Institute of Strategic Studies in London, and the Association for the Study of Nationalities. Dr Cohen spoke to Nermeen Shaikh on April 22nd in Almaty, Kazakhstan, at the Eurasian Media Forum. In the interview, Dr Cohen speaks about the war in Iraq, the privatization of oil and gas development, Eurasian regional politics, and the role of the US in the area.
Topic:
Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Iraq, Central Asia, Eurasia, Middle East, Kazakhstan, and London

222. Foreign Military Bases in Eurasia

Author:
Zdzislaw Lachowski
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
On 16 August 2004 the President of the United States, George W. Bush, announced that some 60 000–70 000 US troops stationed in Asia and Europe would be returned to the USA over the coming decade. This realignment of forces signals a major change in US global and regional policies that will affect the structure of US and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) base deployment (referred to as 'basing' or 'forward basing' by the military) throughout the world. In the 1990s Russia had begun pulling out of its cold war spheres of influence, but it either halted or began to reverse its base withdrawal process at almost the same time as Bush's plan was made known.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Eurasia, and Asia

223. Divergence and Convergence in Eastern Europe Eurasia: One Transition Path Or Two?

Author:
Robyn Murphy and Ron Sprout
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:
This paper attempts to assess the transition “divide” between Eastern Europe and Eurasia by examining and updating trends across the economic, political, and social transition dimensions. Is there evidence that the transition to market-oriented democracies between the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries and Eurasia is diverging along these dimensions? To what extent are the CEE countries taking one transition path and the Eurasian countries an alternative one?
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Markets
Political Geography:
Eurasia and Eastern Europe

224. Labor Markets in Eastern Europe and Eurasia

Author:
Robyn Murphy, Ron Sprout, and Ayo Heinegg
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:
This research attempts to look systematically at the available data regarding labor market characteristics of the transition in Eastern Europe and Eurasia. A primary focus is the examination of the data in light of a World Bank working hypothesis that “there are signs of an emerging divide between labor markets in the transition economies of Eastern Europe and those of low-income Eurasian countries.” We find significant labor market gaps and differences between the CEE countries (particularly the Northern Tier CEE) and Eurasia but mixed evidence at best that these gaps are growing. We also find that there remain some key challenges and adverse trends in labor markets even among the Northern Tier CEE countries.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Markets
Political Geography:
Eurasia and Eastern Europe

225. In Medias Res: The Development of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation as a Security Community

Author:
Marc Lanteigne
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
University of British Columbia
Abstract:
As the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation observed its fifth anniversary in June 2006, the question of where the regime fits within the expanding area of international strategic institutions in Asia and elsewhere assumes an even greater importance. The SCO has begun to establish itself as a more formal actor in the complex area of Eurasian security, and has evolved from a largely consultative grouping into a security community. As well, the SCO has become the cornerstone of China's Central Asian diplomacy and its promotion of "non-alliance" forms of strategic cooperation. However, despite the SCO's endeavours to portray itself as a forum for information-sharing and confidence-building, as well as political and economic cooperation, hard power considerations remain an important part of the organisation's policymaking. Although the SCO was seen as marginalized when Western forces entered Central Asia after September 2001, the organisation plays key roles and should not be dismissed as a strategic actor and source of regional cooperation. Moreover, with American forces remaining in Central Asia for the foreseeable future and Central Asian governments becoming increasingly concerned about the potential after-shocks of the recent "colour revolutions" in the former USSR, there is the greater possibility that a more mature SCO may engage in overt power-balancing behaviour vis-à-vis the West, resulting in rivalries rather than cooperation. To prevent this scenario, it is argued that the international community should take the opportunity to better engage the SCO in the name of promoting peace and stability in Eurasia.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
China, America, Central Asia, and Eurasia

226. The Jamestown Foundation: Eurasia Daily Monitor

Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Abstract:
Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko has decided not to disband parliament. Instead, he nominated Viktor Yanukovych, who lost the presidential election to him in December 2004, for prime minister. These were the only two options that Yushchenko faced after the Orange coalition between his Our Ukraine bloc and the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc fell apart in early July, and the left-of-center majority of Yanukovych' Party of Regions, the Socialists, and the Communists nominated Yanukovych for prime minister. Our Ukraine is now joining the majority; Tymoshenko, having dismissed the compromise between Yushchenko and Yanukovych as “betrayal,” goes into the opposition.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, and Ukraine

227. Monitoring Country Progress in Eastern Europe and Eurasia

Author:
Robyn Murphy and Ron Sprout
Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:
This paper presents an abridged version of USAID/E's 10th edition of its annual report which monitors country progress in the twenty-nine transition country region. The salient findings include: (1) 2005 progress in economic reforms in the transition region was comparable to the good pace of economic reforms in recent years. (2) 2005 data show a continuation of the growing democratization gap between CEE and Eurasia that has been evident since the early transition years. (3) The twenty nine transition countries generally fall into four fairly distinct reform groups: (a) Northern Tier CEE; (b) Southern Tier CEE; (c) Eurasian reformers; and (d) Eurasian non-reformers (Turkmenistan, Belarus, and Uzbekistan). (4) Economic growth rates in the region continue to exceed global norms, and within Eastern Europe and Eurasia, continue to be highest in Eurasia in large part due to favorable primary product trends. (5) Many social indicators continue to recover, apparently at least partly in response to improving economic conditions, including falling poverty and infant mortality rates, and rising real wages and education enrollment rates. (6) Yet many countries are (still) experiencing increasing unemployment rates and the life expectancy gap between CEE and Eurasia continues to grow. (7) And some of the transition countries have among the highest crude death rates worldwide along with among the lowest fertility rates (and birth rates) worldwide.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Health
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Eastern Europe, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Belarus

228. An Example of Turkey's Multilateral Initiativesin Eurasia: Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation

Author:
Emel G. Oktay
Publication Date:
06-2006
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Abstract:
This study aims at evaluating the dynamics that paved the way for the inception of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC) initiative, which was lauched by Turkey taking advantage of the impact of the changes in the international system generated by the ending of the Cold War period. For the evaluation of the success and perenniality of the BSEC initiative, organizational structure and perceptions of member countries are also studied. In addition to important economic cooperation, initiatives aimed at security cooperation in the Black Sea, are also analysed by taking into account their impact upon the regional and international arena. Finally, the achievements of BSEC since its inception in 1992 are evaluated and some suggestions are provided.
Topic:
Cold War and Economics
Political Geography:
Eurasia and Turkey

229. Remembering George Kennan: Lessons for Today?

Author:
Melvyn Leffler
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Kennan's thinking and policy prescriptions evolved quickly from the time he wrote the “Long Telegram” in February 1946 until the time he delivered the Walgreen Lectures at the University of Chicago in 1950. His initial emphasis was on the assessment of the Soviet threat. With new documents from the Soviet archives, we can see that the “Long Telegram” and the “Mr. X” article contained both brilliant insights and glaring omissions. After he was appointed by Secretary of State George C. Marshall to head the newly formed Policy Planning Staff, Kennan's thinking evolved from a focus on threat assessment to an emphasis on interests. Believing that the Soviet threat was political and ideological, and not military, Kennan stressed the importance of reconstructing Western Europe and rebuilding western Germany and Japan. The key task was to prevent the Kremlin from gaining a preponderance of power in Eurasia. Kennan always believed that containment was a prelude to rollback and that the Soviet Union could be maneuvered back to its prewar borders. Eventually, the behavior of the Kremlin would mellow and its attitudes toward international relations would change. The United States needed to negotiate from strength, but the object of strength was, in fact, to negotiate—and compromise. It was important for the United States to avoid overweening commitments. American insecurity stemmed from a mistaken emphasis on legalism and moralism. The United States could not transform the world and should not seek to do so. Goals needed to be modest, linked to interests, and pursued systematically. Kennan would have nothing but disdain for a policy based on notions of a “democratic peace.” But the empirical evidence of social scientists cannot be ignored. Should the pursuit of democracy no longer be seen as a value, but conceived of as an interest?
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Japan, America, Europe, Eurasia, Asia, Soviet Union, Germany, and Chicago

230. A Better Way to Support Middle East Reform

Author:
Thomas Carothers
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI), an important component of the Bush administration's policy of promoting Middle East reform, is falling short. MEPI should be relaunched as a private foundation funded by the government, akin to the Asia Foundation or the Eurasia Foundation. Such a relaunch would permit MEPI to develop greater expertise in the region, use more flexible, effective aid methods, and gain some independence from other U.S. programs and policies that serve conflicting ends. The restructuring of MEPI should be part of a broader set of measures to establish a more visible, coherent institutional policy structure to pursue the critical goal of fundamental political and economic change in the Middle East.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Middle East, and Asia