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102. Ethiopia and Eritrea: Stopping the Slide to War
- Publication Date:
- 12-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The risk that Ethiopia and Eritrea will resume their war in the next several weeks is very real. A military buildup along the common border over the past few months has reached alarming proportions. There will be no easy military solution if hostilities restart; more likely is a protracted conflict on Eritrean soil, progressive destabilisation of Ethiopia and a dramatic humanitarian crisis. To prevent this, the international community – in particular, the UN Security Council and the U.S., which is the single most influential outsider – must act immediately to give both sides the clearest possible message that no destabilising unilateral action will be tolerated. Once the immediate danger is past, efforts should be reinvigorated to ensure that the parties comply with their international law obligations, disengage on the ground and restore the Temporary Security Zone (TSZ) – in a longer time frame – to develop political and economic initiatives for resolving the fundamental problems between the old foes.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Development, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, Ethiopia, and Eritrea
103. Somalia: The Tough Part Is Ahead
- Publication Date:
- 01-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Somalia's Islamic Courts fell even more dramatically than they rose. In little more than a week in December 2006, Ethiopian and Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) forces killed hundreds of Islamist fighters and scattered the rest in a lightning offensive. On 27 December, the Council of Somali Islamic Courts in effect dissolved itself, surrendering political leadership to clan leaders. This was a major success for Ethiopia and the U.S. who feared emergence of a Taliban-style haven for al-Qaeda and other Islamist extremists, but it is too early to declare an end to Somalia's woes. There is now a political vacuum across much of southern Somalia, which the ineffectual TFG is unable to fill. Elements of the Courts, including Shabaab militants and their al- Qaeda associates, are largely intact and threaten guerrilla war. Peace requires the TFG to be reconstituted as a genuine government of national unity but the signs of its willingness are discouraging. Sustained international pressure is needed.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Government, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Taliban, Ethiopia, and Somalia
104. Political Violence and Democratic Uncertainty in Ethiopia
- Author:
- Lahra Smith
- Publication Date:
- 08-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Assistant professor at Georgetown University, where she teaches courses on African politics, civil society and democracy in Africa, and peace and conflict in East Africa. The pardon and release of thirty-eight political detainees, mostly from the leadership of the main opposition party, may give impetus to political negotiations in Ethiopia after more than two years' crisis and stalemate. Contentious and previously unresolved national issues, such as land and economic development; the institutional and constitutional structure of the Ethiopian state; and the best way to ensure equality of ethnic and religious communities, were brought to the fore during the past election cycle. However, after the election, much- needed national dialogue on these matters ended. It must be reinvigorated now that the political opposition's leaders have been freed. Citizen discontent has grown with the caretaker administration in Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa and repressive local administrations. Elections for city and local government must be held. Further delays will undermine any democratic progress. The current Parliament includes members of several opposition political parties, though not the leaders who were imprisoned. Both the ruling party and the main opposition parties should make as many visible and meaningful concessions as possible to their political opponents. Ethiopia's military intervention in Somalia in December 2006, its ongoing military presence in that conflict, and its unchanged, tense border stalemate with Eritrea have contributed to growing violence in the Horn of Africa and stymied domestic democratization.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and War
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Ethiopia, Somalia, and East Africa
105. The Porcupine Dilemma: Governance and Transition in Somalia
- Author:
- Ahmed I. Samatar
- Publication Date:
- 06-2007
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Bildhaan: An International Journal of Somali Studies
- Institution:
- Macalester College
- Abstract:
- As of this writing, too far from “civil happiness,” Somalis continue sliding deeper into a fallen time—pitiful victims of their own follies and an ill-informed, if not manipulative, international and regional system. More precisely, the fight over the state in the past decade and a half has been at once violent and so disabling that, in the eyes of the rest of the world, Somalis have become the paradigmatic embodiment of self-inflicted politicide. Dismayingly, though the Somali state institutions are no more, the contestants wage their battles as if the prize is just waiting to be picked up. Oblivious, then, to the fact that the state and governance are more than the sum of capricious self-promotion and claims of Potemkin political appellations and appointments, the aggressively ambitious bestow a vulgar concreteness to Jorge Luis Borges' metaphor of the condition of “two bald men fighting over a comb.” The ultimate costs of the death of the state and subsequent communal strife are a withering of the national civic identity and spirit and, therefore, a descent into a form of moronic existence. Six instantiations of this condition are: (a) disunity exemplified by some in the northern Somali Republic (Somaliland) calling for a separate sovereignty in that region; (b) an essentialization of clanist maneuvers and mischief that have proven to be incapable of producing legitimate and competent leaders fit for the challenges of the epoch, let alone bring forth workable institutions for the immediate juncture; (c) the degeneration of Mogadishu from the once breezy, relatively cosmopolitan nerve-center of the post-colonial order to a dilapidated hell's gate overwhelmed by new deadly conflagrations and mountains of illdisposed filth; (d) a deepening socioeconomic impoverishment, barely assuaged by remittances from relatives in the diaspora, decline in educational opportunities and standards, and deteriorating public health, including the return of polio; (e) an acute national vulnerability to easy bamboozlement, and now direct military intervention or invasion by foreign actors, particularly neighboring Ethiopia; and (f) a mixture of incredulity and contempt on the part of the larger global community. To be sure, these negative attributes (and many more) make up the defining face of Somali reality. But it is also vital to note that, among the paradoxes of the current sharp cut in time (the meaning of civil war), numerous ordinary women and men, in every zone of the country, have taken it upon themselves to address the immediate concerns of their families and neighborhoods, the virus of sectarian cabals, and, commensurately, keep the candle of civic values flickering for a future undergirded by a peaceful and legitimate and competent governance.
- Political Geography:
- Ethiopia and Somalia
106. Avoiding Conflict in the Horn of Africa: U.S. Policy Toward Ethiopia and Eritrea
- Author:
- Terrance Lyons
- Publication Date:
- 12-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- In 2006, the Horn of Africa witnessed major escalations in several conflicts, a marked deterioration of governance in critical states, and a general unraveling of U.S. foreign policy toward the strategically located region. The U.S.-brokered Algiers Agreement to end the 1998–2000 border war between Ethiopia and Eritrea is at a crossroads. Ethiopia has resisted implementing the decisions made by the Eritrea-Ethiopia Border Commission (EEBC), Eritrea has imposed unilateral restrictions on the United Nations Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE), and both states have rejected the EEBC's plans to demarcate the border unilaterally. In Sudan, implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement remains incomplete, and the violence in Darfur continues to rage and spill into Chad. In Somalia, the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) has failed to establish itself outside of Baidoa and its rival, the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC), has seized control of Mogadishu and much of southern Somalia. The rapid rise of the UIC in mid-2006 in particular amplified prospects for regional conflict as Ethiopia and Eritrea sent significant military support to the opposing sides. On December 6, 2006, the UN Security SudanCouncil unanimously endorsed Resolution 1725, a plan supported by Washington to deploy African troops to prop up the authorities in Baidoa. The Islamic Courts have stated that this intervention will be regarded as an invading force and will escalate, rather than reduce, the conflict.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Development
- Political Geography:
- Uganda, Africa, United States, Washington, Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Eritrea
107. Automating Public Financial Management in Developing Countries
- Author:
- Stephen Peterson
- Publication Date:
- 10-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The principal recommendation to developing countries for automating their financial systems is to adopt off ‐ the ‐ shelf integrated financial information system s (IFMISs). The recommendation to adopt an IFMIS goes beyond a strategy of automation. IFMISs are often viewed as the driver of financial reform in developing countries. Experience shows that these systems usually fail or under perform yet research to date has not adequately explained their poor performance. This paper presents two frameworks and a case study from Ethiopia which illustrates an approach to automating financial systems that has worked. The first framework distinguishes between business process innovation (reengineering) and process change. Process innovation is a comprehensive change of procedures and organization driven by information technology. Process change is an incremental strategy driven by procedural reform and supported by information technology. Process change is far less risky than process innovation and is a more appropriate approach because the financial systems in most developing countries are relatively sound and thus provide a basis for improvement. The conventional off ‐ the ‐ shelf IFMIS reform is principally process innovation which exceeds the capacity of most public bureaucracies in developing countries. The second framework concerns the three factors of risk to an automation project: scope, schedule and budget. The availability of concessionary aid to many developing countries means there is not a hard budget constraint to automation projects and there is little discipline with schedule and scope. The virtual absence of a financial and social cost ‐ benefit analysis of these large and questionable investments is a serious failing in the use of development assistance and loans. The custom IFMIS developed to support the Ethiopian reform is presented as an example of a successful low risk strategy of automation in a difficult environment. The case illustrates the two frameworks as the reform focused on process change and the automation component was delivered on budget, ahead of schedule and beyond specification. The Ethiopian case demonstrates several lessons about automation in developing countries: the virtue of process change, the role of automation to support not drive financial reform, the virtue of 'optimal obscurity' of automation projects given that high level commitment cannot be assumed, and the value of an incremental development strategy of frequent operational upgrades of information systems.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, International Trade and Finance, and Third World
- Political Geography:
- Ethiopia
108. Can the Somalia Crisis Be Contained?
- Publication Date:
- 08-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Somalia has been drifting toward a new war since the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) was formed in late 2004 but the trend has recently accelerated dramatically. The stand-off between the TFG and its Ethiopian ally on the one hand, and the Islamic Courts, which now control Mogadishu, on the other, threatens to escalate into a wider conflict that would consume much of the south, destabilise peaceful territories like Somaliland and Puntland and possibly involve terrorist attacks in neighbouring countries unless urgent efforts are made by both sides and the international community to put together a government of national unity.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Ethiopia, and Somalia
109. Asset Portfolios in Africa: Evidence from Rural Ethiopia
- Author:
- Christian Rogg
- Publication Date:
- 11-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper considers asset holdings in rural Ethiopia. It shows that households own mostly non-financial assets and that the composition of asset portfolios varies significantly with the household's overall wealth and its exposure to uncertainty. As regards the distribution of assets, inequality is lowest for land holdings and much higher for all other assets. More generally, asset inequality is higher than consumption inequality but, somewhat surprisingly, lower than income inequality. Less surprising is the finding that asset holdings are positively correlated with income and consumption. An analysis of how asset holdings vary with key demographic variables shows that assets increase with the size of the household and the education of the household head. Finally, the paper concludes by exploring the role that assets play in marriage markets in rural Ethiopia.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Ethiopia
110. The Structure and Performance of Ethiopia's Financial Sector in the Pre- and Post-Reform Period with a Special Focus on Banking
- Author:
- Alemayehu Geda
- Publication Date:
- 10-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Since 1992 Ethiopia has been engaged in liberalizing its financial sector. The hallmark of the strategy is gradualism. The approach is not without problems especially from Bretton Woods Institutions that saw the reform as a sluggish process. This study examines this liberalization program by analyzing the performance of the sector before and after the reform. The study notes that given the nascent development of the financial sector in the country, the relatively good shape in which the existing financial institutions find themselves, and given that supervision and regulation capacity of the regulating agency is weak, the government's strategy of gradualism and its over all reform direction is encouraging. However, we argue for charting out clearly defined time frame for liberalization and exploring the possibility of engaging with foreign banks to acquire new technology that enhance the efficiency of the financial sector in general and the banking sector in particular.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Ethiopia