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12. Mid-Year Update: 10 Conflicts to Worry About in 2021
- Author:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- In ACLED’s special report on 10 conflicts to worry about at the start of 2021, we identified a range of flashpoints and emerging crises where violent political disorder was likely to evolve or worsen over the course of the year: Ethiopia, India & Pakistan, Myanmar, Haiti, Belarus, Colombia, Armenia & Azerbaijan, Yemen, Mozambique, and the Sahel.1 Our mid-year update revisits these 10 cases, tracking key developments in political violence and protest activity during the first half of 2021 and analyzing trends to watch in the coming months.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Conflict, Protests, and Political Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, India, Yemen, Colombia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Haiti, Mozambique, Ethiopia, Myanmar, Belarus, Sahel, and Global Focus
13. The Tigray Crisis: The Ethiopian government’s incessant attempts to resolve the internal conflict militarily
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- The conflict in Ethiopia continues despite international appeals to put an end to it. The government forces were able to slow down the progress of the forces of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front over the last two weeks, and to control some areas. However, the main areas of Afar and Amhara remained under the control of the Tigrayan rebels, who managed to form a broader alliance with other rebel groups.
- Topic:
- Security, Government, Conflict, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Ethiopia, and Tigray
14. Successive Setbacks: Can the United Front seize control of Addis Ababa?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- From October 31 to November 3, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) managed to achieve strategic gains at the expense of the Ethiopian government, as it continues to draw closer to the Ethiopian capital, especially after its seizing control of the cities of Dessie and Kombolcha. Meanwhile, contrary to regional and international appeals, the Ethiopian Prime Minister continues to mobilize citizens to fight, refusing a ceasefire and any negotiations with the Tigray Front.
- Topic:
- Government, Non State Actors, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Ethiopia, and Tigray
15. A warm war: Sudan and Ethiopia on a collision course
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Border conflict between Sudan and Ethiopia is fed by current conflicts rooted in historical disagreements, and may develop into a regional crisis that will expand to include Egypt, which considers the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam a threat to its national security.
- Topic:
- National Security, War, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, and Ethiopia
16. Refugees and Local Power Dynamics The Case of the Gambella Region of Ethiopia
- Author:
- Samuel Zewdie Hagos
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- The Gambella Region is one of the marginalised and most conflict-ridden regions in Ethiopia. Recently, violent clashes between the two largest ethnic groups in the region - the host communities, the Anywaa, and the South Sudanese Nuer refugees - have reignited the debate on refugee integration in the region. In fact, the roots of the Anywaa-Nuer conflict can be traced back to the imperial regime of Ethiopia at the end of the 19th century. In the early 1960s however, the arrival and spontaneous integration of Nuer refugees was peaceful and relations between both ethnic groups were harmonious. During this time, refugee management was organised locally. Against this background, the focus of the present paper is to understand the nature, context and evolution of the long-standing conflict between the Anywaa and refugees from the Nuer ethnic group in the Gambella Region. Beyond that, the paper explores the Anywaa-Nuer conflict within the context of the political power dynamics of the last two decades. Thereby, the paper reveals that the disputes between the Anywaa and the Nuer have taken on a new dimension since the early 1990s.
- Topic:
- Refugees, Conflict, Integration, and Marginalization
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Ethiopia
17. Inter-Communal Tensions, Violence and Conflicts in the Time of a Pandemic in Ethiopia
- Author:
- Yihenew Alemu Tesfaye, Fasika Gedif, Kedir Jemal, and Meseret Asefa
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Institute of Peace (EIP)
- Abstract:
- The ongoing conflict in northern Ethiopia−in the Tigray region and adjacent Amhara and Afar zones−has controlled the last twelve months discussions and analyses of Ethiopian politics. The magnitude of the conflict, associated humanitarian crisis, and the news about the crisis (sometimes with deliberate circulations of misinformation) have made this the most significant political challenge of the nation since the 1998 Ethio-Eritrea war. However, recent political developments in Ethiopia feed into each other, and it remains imperative to keep examining continued inter-communal tensions, violence and conflicts in Ethiopia and analysing the ramification of the Covid-19 pandemic on outstanding and novel inter-communal tensions and conflicts in the country. As this report shows, political developments are, directly or indirectly, linked with the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, which has escalated hitherto mostly localised inter-communal tensions and fueled armed conflicts in Ethiopia. The primary aim of this study is to investigate the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on Ethiopia’s political situation and inter-communal tensions, violence, and extremism. By taking cases from the Metekel zone in Benishangul-Gumuz region, from the central and west Gondar zone (largely the Chilga district) in the Amhara region, and the east Hararghe zone in the Oromia region, this report discusses what occurred during incidents since the onset of the pandemic, how sources attribute the causes of these incidents, and how the narratives of sources, directly or indirectly, implicate the pandemic in triggering or aggravating these incidents.
- Topic:
- Conflict, Violence, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Communal Areas
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Ethiopia
18. Ethiopia’s Transition: Implications for the Horn of Africa and Red Sea Region
- Author:
- Jason Mosley
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
- Abstract:
- The intersection of two significant trends are affecting the regional dynamics of the Horn of Africa: the political transition underway in Ethiopia since 2018 and evolving Red Sea and Gulf security dynamics. Ethiopia’s transition has affected its relations in the Horn of Africa and the broader Red Sea region. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have taken a much more assertive approach to regional security since 2015, contributing to a major diplomatic rift with Qatar since 2017. Elucidating how states in the Horn of Africa are affected by and responding to external influences largely hinges on understanding the Ethiopian transition. The implications for the future of regional integration in the Horn of Africa must also be considered.
- Topic:
- Security, Conflict, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Ethiopia, Indian Ocean, and Horn of Africa
19. Civil War in the Horn of Africa?: Four Possible Trajectories for Ethiopia
- Author:
- James Barnett
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- A civil war is erupting in Ethiopia—Africa’s second most populous state, a geopolitical fulcrum in the volatile Red Sea arena, and the seat of the African Union (AU). The question now is whether a ceasefire can quickly be brokered that would, in the best case, serve as the basis for a broader national dialogue aimed at stabilizing the country’s political transition; or whether the situation will devolve into a multisided conflict that draws in neighboring states and further destabilizes what is already one of the world’s most fragile regions. As of this writing, the latter unfortunately seems more likely, but there is still hope for a ceasefire, particularly if Ethiopia’s regional and international partners make a concerted push for de-escalation. One should not use the term “civil war” lightly, but this appears to be the course that Ethiopia is on. While in recent years the country has suffered from intercommunal clashes, assassinations, a coup attempt, and a low-level insurgency, this is the first time that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government has faced a direct challenge from a well-armed state within the state. The stakes are high. With a population of over 100 million, the United States Institute of Peace’s senior study group on the Red Sea warns that Ethiopia’s disintegration would constitute “the largest state collapse in modern history.”
- Topic:
- International Relations, Civil War, Geopolitics, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Ethiopia, and Horn of Africa
20. Ending the Dangerous Standoff in Southern Somalia
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? Hundreds of troops loyal to the Federal Government of Somalia, on one side, and Jubaland regional state, on the other, are locked in a tense showdown in the Gedo region of southern Somalia. Clashes between them have already resulted in fatalities and uprooted thousands from their homes. Why does it matter? Neighbouring Ethiopia and Kenya, which are both troop contributors to the African Union’s peacekeeping mission in Somalia, seek to avoid direct confrontation but respectively support the opposing federal and Jubaland administrations. The situation plays into the hands of the Al-Shabaab Islamist insurgency, which is further entrenching its presence in Gedo. What should be done? The African Union, along with the eastern African sub-regional bloc, the Intergovernmental Authority for Development, and Somalia’s bilateral partners, should lean on Ethiopia and Kenya to push the two sides to de-escalate tensions. Talks would allow the sides to refocus energies on stemming Al-Shabaab’s gains.
- Topic:
- Conflict, Negotiation, Islamism, Al Shabaab, and African Union
- Political Geography:
- Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Horn of Africa
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