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1. Expert Comment: The possibility of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea

Author:
Clionadh Raleigh
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
ACLED’s CEO, Prof. Clionadh Raleigh, said: “The lines of this potential conflict are too fragmented, and there is more smoke than fire. The prevailing idea seems to be a rising contest between Eritrea and Ethiopia in and over Tigray, which the Ethiopia National Defense Force (ENDF) withdrew from in February. The ruling Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) party is incredibly and dangerously fragmented, and the non-ruling fragment is making a lot of noise. Although the faction has never admitted it, much is being made about their possible opportunistic alliances with the (former and current enemy) Eritrean government on one hand and fragments of the (former and current enemy) Amhara nationalist militias — Fano — on the other hand. So who would fight whom over what is as confusing and unlikely in Tigray as it is outside of the region.”
Topic:
Armed Conflict, Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), and Ethiopia National Defense Force (ENDF)
Political Geography:
Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Africa

2. Unveiling Dissent: Eritrean Diaspora Festival Turmoil and Social Media Mobilization

Author:
Yonatan Tewelde
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Amidst the TikTok videos that inundated the Eritrean digital landscape during the summer of 2023, a tapestry of dissent unfolds. A wounded protestor, his head swathed in bandages, is ushered into an ambulance: a powerful testament to the toll of resistance. A striking photograph captures a black man in a blue shirt adorned with the raised fist logo of Birgade Nhamedu (a new, diaspora Eritrean, youth-led movement). He is handcuffed and escorted by three stern riot police officers, his silent defiance echoing louder than words. Videos depict intense street clashes between two factions in Israel, one clad in blue shirts and the other in red, hurling projectiles amidst tear gas clouds, their battlegrounds emblazoned with the fervor of discord. The lens then shifts to scenes of vulnerability, with two young women kneeling before the police, one clad in the emblematic blue shirt, the other brandishing the Israeli flag and a gallon of milk, a poignant plea for justice. Across borders, from Ontario to Seattle, a sea of blue-shirted protestors unites in dance, protest, and celebration. However, the more forceful videos paint a vivid picture of upheaval; festival venues overrun, tents ablaze, and the clash between the dissenting blues and the establishment’s red emblematic of a struggle that transcends geographical boundaries. These TikTok vignettes, widely shared and discussed with viral fervor, capture the essence of a burgeoning movement of global dissidents led by young Eritrean refugees. Their resistance is motivated by their opposition to an authoritarian government that has been in power since 1991. This movement represents a visceral reaction to the years of forced military conscription from which the prostestors sought refuge. The struggle unfolds as a response to a range of egregious acts, including enslavement, imprisonment, enforced disappear- ance, torture, persecution, rape, and murder. These inhumane acts have been systematically carried out since the Eritrean government authorities assumed control of the territory in 1991. The United Nations has since condemned these actions as crimes against humanity.1
Topic:
Diaspora, Social Media, Dissent, and Mobilization
Political Geography:
Africa and Eritrea

3. Eritrea’s Growing Ties with China and Russia Highlight America’s Inadequate Approach in East Africa

Author:
Joshua Meservey
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
China and Russia have recently increased their engagement with Eritrea, a small but strategically located country in East Africa. Meanwhile, American influence in the region is amid a yearslong slide. Despite the obvious risks, the United States has failed to muster a committed response and has even taken some counterproductive measures that demonstrate a lack of strategic thinking. If these trends continue, a vital region may fall under the conclusive influence of Washington’s primary geopolitical competitors.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, and Strategic Planning
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, Eritrea, and United States of America

4. Justice Options for Ethiopia: Eight Options to Provide Redress for Ethiopia's Victims

Author:
Sarah McIntosh
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
The most recent conflict in Ethiopia has claimed thousands of lives and perpetrators have enjoyed almost complete impunity for their crimes. Ɣ Justice and accountability for perpetrators on all sides are desperately needed to demonstrate that perpetrators will not escape punishment, to provide recognition and repair to victims, and to promote social healing and reconciliation. Ɣ Ethiopian civil society representatives have called for the full spectrum of transitional justice mechanisms including criminal accountability, reparations, truth telling, and guarantees of non-recurrence.
Topic:
Civil Society, Transitional Justice, Impunity, Accountability, Atrocities, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, Eritrea, East Africa, and Tigray

5. Eritrea as an Informal Representative of the Pro-Russia Forces in Africa

Author:
Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Eritrea was the only African country to vote against the UN General Assembly (UNGA) resolution on 2 March condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Although this voice was isolated, Eritrea has become the informal representative of a larger group of states on the continent critical of the West. The possible enlargement of this pro-Russia bloc will depend on the financial and military ability of Russia to remain active in Africa.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, United Nations, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, and Eritrea

6. Ethiopia (Horn of Africa, part 1 of 2)

Author:
Nathenael Gemechu, Michael Woldemariam, and Guled Ahmed
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Nathenael Gemechu moderates a conversation with Michael Woldemariam and Guled Ahmed on Ethiopia in the first installment of a two-part series on the Horn of Africa. Woldemariam and Ahmed discuss the ongoing Tigrayan conflict that includes Ethiopia and Eritrea and the influence of external players.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Crisis Management, Armed Conflict, and Influence
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Horn of Africa, and Tigray

7. UN Human Rights Council Elections for 2022-2024 and the Responsibility to Protect

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
Today, 14 October, the UN General Assembly elected Argentina, Benin, Cameroon, Eritrea, Finland, The Gambia, Honduras, India, Kazakhstan, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Montenegro, Paraguay, Qatar, Somalia, United Arab Emirates and the United States of America to the Human Rights Council (HRC) for the 2022-2024 term. With the elections of Argentina, Finland, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Montenegro, Paraguay, Qatar and the United States of America, 19 of the 47 Council members in 2022 will be “Friends of the Responsibility to Protect” – having appointed an R2P Focal Point and/or joined the Group of Friends of R2P in New York and Geneva. The Human Rights Council and its mechanisms and procedures – including the Universal Periodic Review (UPR), investigative mechanisms, special procedures and treaty bodies, as well as the technical assistance provided by the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) – all play an essential role in providing early warning of the risk factors that can lead to crimes against humanity, ethnic cleansing, war crimes and genocide, and provide recommendations to prevent their recurrence. The election of Cameroon, Eritrea and the United Arab Emirates – states that have a history of violating human rights and perpetrating atrocities at home or abroad – undermines the credibility of the HRC. States elected to the HRC are supposed to demonstrate their commitment to the highest standards of human rights, including their full cooperation with all UN mechanisms. These are conditions set forth in UN General Assembly Resolution 60/251. The fact that potential mass atrocity crimes are being perpetrated by a number of HRC member states is deeply disturbing. The Global Centre has compiled profiles on each of the newly elected Human Rights Council members. These provide a basic overview of their commitment to prevent mass atrocities by protecting and promoting human rights.
Topic:
Human Rights, United Nations, Elections, and Responsibility to Protect (R2P)
Political Geography:
Malaysia, India, Finland, Kazakhstan, Lithuania, Argentina, Qatar, Somalia, Honduras, Montenegro, Paraguay, Eritrea, United Arab Emirates, Luxembourg, Cameroon, United States of America, Benin, and Gambia

8. Africa’s Thorny Horn

Author:
Giovanni Carbone, Michele D'Alessandro, Zemalak A. Ayele, Giovanni Putoto, David Styan, Michael Woldemariam, Afyare A. Elmi, Abdi M. Hersi, Aleksi Ylönen, Alexander Meckelburg, and Camillo Casola
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
In the context of the disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, the Horn of Africa remains one of the most dynamic and intriguing regions on the African continent. The political processes currently under way – including the recent conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region – have deep implications that reflect on the domestic equilibria within the area’s core states - Ethiopia itself, but also Eritrea, Somalia and Djibouti – as well as on the relations among them. The nature and extent of involvement by external, non-African players is bound to be affected too. How is the Horn of Africa changing, following the leadership transition in Ethiopia? What are the main political and security prospects for the region and for the states belonging to it? And how will ongoing dynamics impact on European political strategies?
Topic:
Hegemony, Geopolitics, State Building, Domestic Policy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Somalia, Eritrea, and Horn of Africa

9. Eritrean refugees struggle after the peace agreement with Ethiopia: Peace and Plight

Author:
Hans Lucht and Tekalign Ayalew Mengiste
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Following the 2018 peace agreement between Ethiopia and Eritrea more than 60,000 Eritrean refugees arrived in Ethiopia. Thousands continue to arrive every month. They live under harsh conditions that call for humanitarian action. KEY TAKEAWAYS: Vulnerable Eritrean refugees in Ethiopia, women, elderly, disabled, and children need urgent humanitarian assistance, including shelters, food, water, sanitation, energy, and health care. Funds are needed for UNHCR, partner organizations, and ARRA to address continuous refugee arrivals in Ethiopia and the challenges posed by COVID-19. Donor countries should put pressure on Ethiopia to reintroduce prima facie recognition and allow access to protection, while resettlement quotas abroad should be increased. Humanitarian support and emergency shelters should be provided in transit locations for smuggled and trafficked Eritreans in need of urgent protection.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, Treaties and Agreements, Refugees, Peace, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, and Eritrea

10. After Flood and Revolution: Sudanese Responses to a Lagging Transitional Government

Author:
Isma'il Kushkush, Mohamed Solman, and Jérôme Tubiana
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
In 2018, the Sudanese Revolution gained prominence on social media and drew international attention to the movement taking place against Omar Al-Bashir’s 30 year dictatorship in the country. Widespread protests were sparked by drastic policies meant to prevent economic collapse such as the slashing of bread and fuel subsidies. Two years later, grievances remain as Sudan continues to face a multitude of issues including record breaking floods, poor governance, incoming Ethiopians and Eritreans fleeing conflict, and persistent militia violence. The Sudanese people have begun to lose patience with the Transitional Government’s inability to sufficiently reform the system and respond to crises. How has Sudan adapted to both environmental and political upheaval? What changes have occured since Omar Al-Bashir was ousted? How does Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok plan to move forward with the reconstruction of Sudan’s constitutional system, and how could the violence in Ethiopia and Eritrea affect that? In what ways, do we see Sudan’s relationship with foreign allies changing amidst this reconstruction? In this panel, the Middle East Institute (MEI) brings together experts to explore what the future of Sudan looks like, and what the revolution succeeded and failed to bring the people.
Topic:
Environment, Politics, Social Media, Protests, and Transition
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Eritrea