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2. Virtual Briefing Series | Gaza’s Future: Its Neighbors and Trump Weigh In
- Author:
- Eyal Hulata and Mirette Mabrouk
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- President Donald Trump has apparently been pushing Egypt and Jordan to absorb the displaced Gazan population amid Arab opposition to his proposal. Trump also vowed to discuss the issue with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during his upcoming visit to Washington, DC. How realistic is this idea? And what’s at stake for both Palestinians and the security architecture of the broader region? This on-the-record briefing will feature Eyal Hulata, former head of Israel’s National Security Council (NSC). Hulata is also Senior International Fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies. The briefing will also feature Mirette Mabrouk, Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute. Our experts will discuss Trump’s leverage regarding aid, the Palestinian reaction, Amman’s and Cairo’s political considerations, potential regional security implications, and how the fate of Gazan refugees may affect the longer-term resilience of Israel’s peace treaties with Jordan and Egypt.
- Topic:
- Displacement, Ethnic Cleansing, Donald Trump, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, Egypt, and Jordan
3. An Analysis of Egyptian and Israeli Discourse on Israel’s Control of the Philadelphi Corridor during the 2023 Gaza War
- Author:
- Fatamaelzahraa Nassar and Ahmet Üçağaç
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- This study investigates the interplay between sovereignty discourse and national security through an analysis of Israeli and Egyptian discourses during Israel’s control over the Philadelphi Corridor following the 2023 Gaza War. Employing critical discourse analysis, the research examines official statements and media coverage from both nations, highlighting how sovereignty is mobilised to legitimize military actions and secure strategic advantages. The findings reveal contrasting approaches. Israel framed its actions as essential to national security and counterterrorism, using symbolic language to justify its occupation. On the other hand, Egypt sought to balance sovereignty discourse with regional stability and international obligations. However, both discourses displayed inconsistencies between rhetoric and practice, with significant implications for human security and regional stability. This study contributes to understanding the role of sovereignty discourse in shaping geopolitical conflicts and offers insight into the challenges of aligning security imperatives with legal and ethical norms.
- Topic:
- Sovereignty, Armed Conflict, Discourse, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Egypt
4. The impact on developing economies of WTO dissolution
- Author:
- Lloyd Barton
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- This report revisits the analysis presented in our April 2024 paper on the potential impact of WTO dissolution, drilling down to quantify national-level impacts for a sample of ten developing economies. Our previous report (The economic impact of abandoning the WTO) focused on presenting aggregated results for developing countries by region and income level. This report drills down to quantify impacts for a sample of ten individual countries: Brazil, Cameroon, China, Egypt, Guatemala, Indonesia, India, South Africa, Turkey, and Vietnam. These countries provide a rich, varied sample that captures the complexity of trade policy in the developing world. Their diversity in geography, economic size, policy orientation, and development stage allows for a nuanced analysis of how WTO dissolution could potentially influence pathways to higher incomes, poverty reduction and economic resilience. Our analysis reinforces the importance of ensuring the WTO can adapt to new trade realities and continue to function as an effective global trade body.
- Topic:
- Economics, Poverty, Trade, Economic Development, and WTO
- Political Geography:
- China, Indonesia, Turkey, India, South Africa, Brazil, Vietnam, Egypt, Guatemala, and Cameroon
5. The Invasion of Rafah
- Author:
- Eran Etzion and Mirette F. Mabrouk
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- The Middle East Institute hosted an on-the-record briefing on the impending ground invasion of Rafah, one of the last remaining safe zones for civilians in Gaza, and Egypt's preparations to secure and fortify its border ahead of the operation.
- Topic:
- War, Borders, Civilians, and Invasion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, Egypt, and Rafah
6. Understanding the Energy Drivers of Turkey’s Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Francesco Siccardi
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Turkey has an energy dependence problem. For the past two decades, Ankara’s energy needs have been on the rise, and they are projected to continue on an upward trajectory until at least 2035. Yet, the country is not endowed with the proven natural resources to support its energy needs, and so it imports almost all of the energy it consumes. This reliance on energy imports creates economic and security constraints for Ankara. On the economic front, strategic decisions to diversify Turkey’s energy market impact the direction and pace of the country’s economic development. On the security front, dependence on foreign energy exposes Turkey to external shocks and creates vulnerabilities that affect the country’s international posture. To Turkish policymakers, this is hardly breaking news. For many decades, successive governments have been considering ways to diversify the country’s energy portfolio with the objective of ensuring access to affordable, reliable energy supplies. Domestically, this goal has translated into continued investments in locally produced power, such as the development of natural gas fields under the Black Sea and the opening of nuclear and coal-fired power plants across the country. Externally, the aim of diversification has led Ankara to forge a wide range of international partnerships and preserve relations with both Western purchasers of Turkish exports and key energy providers, including Russia and countries in Turkey’s immediate neighborhood. What is more, Ankara pursues its energy diplomacy against the backdrop of a broader geopolitical strategy of bolstering Turkey’s status as a regional power based on its geographic position and connections. At the heart of this strategy is a grand plan to establish Turkey as a major natural gas hub that will put the country at the center of regional energy trade. This policy has ramifications for Ankara’s relations with its close and more distant neighbors. Turkey is surrounded by energy-rich countries, and one of its primary objectives when reaching out to them is to secure the conditions for a steady inflow of energy resources—typically, natural gas and oil. This objective can lead to the development of durable economic partnerships, such as with Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Iran; but it can also spark conflicts of different degrees of intensity, such as with Turkey’s Eastern Mediterranean neighbors and Iraq. Beyond its immediate neighborhood, Ankara’s gas diplomacy is consequential for relations with Russia—with which Turkey has been strengthening its energy relations beyond hydrocarbons—and with Europe. On the demand side of Ankara’s natural gas market equation, European countries are thirsty for non-Russian hydrocarbons in the short and medium term and for green energy in the longer term. Turkey has the potential to provide both, as long as it comes up with strong policies that support these energy transitions. To do so, the Turkish government will need to shift its approaches not only to energy but also to geopolitics. Ankara will have to present itself as a reliable energy partner for Europe and ramp up its investment in clean energy technologies. Delinking Turkey’s economic development from its dependence on hydrocarbons will benefit Ankara financially while bringing it closer to its European allies. Building a long-lasting energy partnership with Europe remains one of Turkey’s greatest challenges.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Climate Change, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Iraq, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Caucasus, Middle East, Libya, North Africa, and Egypt
7. Bridging Local and Global Assistance for Palestinian Refugees in Egypt
- Author:
- Maysa Ayoub
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- What happens to those who are beyond UNHCR and UNRWA’s scope of operation?
- Topic:
- Refugees, UNHCR, and United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA)
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, and Egypt
8. Survival strategies in the Middle East: Foreign policy in the service of regime security. The cases of Egypt and UAE.
- Author:
- Johannes Späth, Carsten Minh Vo, and Cengiz Günay
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
- Abstract:
- This policy analysis examines foreign policy making in Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). It highlights how internal power dynamics and the interaction between formal institutions and informal networks shape foreign policy making in these two different types of Middle Eastern autocracies. The study identifies the politically relevant elite coalitions and their impact on decision-making. In both regimes, the circle at the top of the power pyramid is rather small and characterized by informal and family ties. A small and homogeneous elite promotes cohesion, but also limits the diversity of opinions. The royal elite in the UAE and the military and intelligence elite at the core of the al-Sisi regime in Egypt pursue their own economic interests in the service of regime security and stability. The paper identifies areas where the regional and foreign policies/interests of the two friendly countries and their elites diverge.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Autocracy, Regional Politics, and Regime Security
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Egypt, and UAE
9. The BRICS Expansion: Prerequisits and Anticipated Threats
- Author:
- Mariam Macharashvili
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- On January 1st, 2024, BRICS officially expanded. Initially, it was expected that six new states would become members of this club representing the “Global South” - Egypt, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Ethiopia and Argentina. However, Argentina changed its mind at the last minute due to the election of Javier Milei as president. Unlike his predecessor, Alberto Fernandez, Milei is changing the vector of the country’s foreign policy from the «South» to the «West». Despite predictions of its breakup due to heterogeneity, the BRICS bloc has lasted longer than anticipated. During its time, the number of BRICS members has doubled, and there are still many countries interested in joining. As the BRICS countries strengthen their massive economy and even bigger goals, their ability to influence the world order increases, which may ultimately pose a threat to the entire Western free world. This paper will seek to provide brief answers to the following questions within the frame of expert opinion: 1. What is BRICS? 2. What events led to its expansion? and 3. What threats should we expect from the strengthening of the bloc?
- Topic:
- Alliance, BRICS, and Threat Assessment
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, Ethiopia, Egypt, and United Arab Emirates
10. Foreign Lobbying in the U.S.
- Author:
- Ben Freeman and Nick Cleveland-Stout
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
- Abstract:
- This brief takes a deep dive into a newly available tranche of data tracking foreign influence in the U.S. political process. The new data was released in early 2024 following reforms to the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA), which made access to all foreign registrants’ political activities and campaign contributions publicly available. The brief unearths a complex web of foreign influence in the United States — with countries like Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Azerbaijan reaping the benefits of massive political influence campaigns. Influence operations today often follow a standard playbook: outside countries use firms based in Washington to lobby active members of Congress in pursuit of various aims — such as receiving U.S. weapons, currying American favor in regional conflicts, and more general reputation laundering. In 2022 and 2023, FARA registrants reported $14.3 million in political contributions and nearly 130,000 political activities. This relationship between lobbyists representing foreign countries and U.S. policymakers in itself is concerning, raising questions of whether politicians are really prioritizing the interests of their constituents, and of all Americans. To make matters worse, authoritarian regimes represent a majority of the most active countries — including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which placed first and fourth, respectively, among the countries most engaged in political activities under FARA from 2022–23. Greater FARA transparency is certainly a welcome development, but still more can be done to help Americans understand the who, what, and how of the foreign lobbying industry. For one, FARA registrants should be required to report a unique identifier for each office contacted, making it easier to determine lobbyists’ contacts. Greater language specificity in the descriptions of political activities is also needed. In addition, Congress could pass legislation that would introduce civil fines on the underreporting of political activities, although such a step should be accompanied by protections against the abuse of the FARA process.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Democratization, Conflict, and Military-Industrial Complex
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and United Arab Emirates