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11. Value for money: Why and how Europeans should support the failing economies of Egypt and Tunisia

Author:
Anthony Dworkin, Camille Lons, and Tarek Megerisi
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The economies of Egypt and Tunisia are characterised by weak private sectors, insiderism, and the dominance of key constituencies that maintain regime leaders in power. The severe weaknesses of these economies have provoked recurrent crises and cause hardship for their populations, which threatens social and political instability as well as greater migration towards Europe. The EU wants to ensure that the financial assistance it provides contributes to promoting fundamental reform. But Egyptian and Tunisian leaders have resisted policy change for political and ideological reasons, relying in part on support from Gulf countries. Europeans need to ground their economic assistance in a better understanding of political dynamics and regional trends to ensure that they gain the greatest possible influence for the funding they provide. Europeans should adopt more achievable, more targeted policy requests for economic and financial reforms in each country, and work as closely as possible with Gulf partners, which are already making greater demands of Cairo and Tunis in return for the support they give.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Migration, Foreign Aid, and Economy
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, North Africa, Egypt, and Tunisia

12. Egypt Polling Shows Rise in Positive Views of Hamas; Iran-Backed Groups and the Muslim Brotherhood Remain Unpopular

Author:
Mohamed Abdelaziz
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
While Hamas has experienced a surge of popular support in Egypt, these views have not impacted those who say that they have a positive view of the Muslim Brotherhood. Iran’s proxies, namely Hezbollah and the Houthis, remained deeply unpopular among Egyptians. Arecent public opinion survey of Egyptian citizens, commissioned by the Washington Institute and conducted in November/December by a regional commercial firm, revealed that after years of adopting a negative view towards Hamas, three-quarters of Egyptians now view the movement positively, demonstrating the impact of the Israel-Hamas war on Egyptian public opinion. The majority of Egyptians continue to reject ties with Israel and Israelis, while Iran’s proxies remain unpopular, while the majority of Egyptians believe that the United States can put an end to the war in Gaza. Regarding the United States’ role in the ongoing war in Gaza, the current poll showed that more than three-quarters of Egyptians agreed that “the U.S. is still in the best position to help end the war in Gaza, even if I disagree with its policies.” However, Egyptians are currently divided on the proposition that “We cannot count on the U.S. these days, so we should look more to other nations like Russia or China as partners.” While 57% of Egyptians agreed with this proposition, 42% disagreed. In terms of the role that Arab countries should play in the ongoing conflict, the current poll showed mixed views. A significant majority of Egyptians (97%) demanded that Arab states take a tough stand against Israel and “immediately sever all diplomatic, political, economic, and any other contacts with Israel, in protest against its military action in Gaza.” Yet although not unanimous, over two thirds (69%) of Egyptians likewise agreed that “Arab governments should take a more active role in Palestinian-Israeli peacemaking, offering both sides incentives to take more moderate positions.” Moreover, an overwhelming majority (96%) of Egyptians believed that their country should provide more humanitarian aid to the Palestinians, even if that requires some practical coordination with Israel. Notably, while Hamas has experienced a surge of popularity—in line with significant jumps among other Arab publics polled—these views have not impacted those who say that they have a positive view of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB). The current Egyptian government finds both the Muslim Brotherhood itself and its Palestinian offshoot threatening to domestic politics. For almost eight years, since the release of the Fall 2015 poll results, where Hamas received negative scores, the majority of Egyptians demonstrated a negative attitude towards Hamas. In contrast, the current poll shows that three-quarters of Egyptians view Hamas positively, while less than a quarter hold a negative view. Likewise, the large majority expressed agreement with the view that the war in
Topic:
Public Opinion, Hamas, Muslim Brotherhood, Polls, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Palestine, and Egypt

13. Egypt’s Economy Amidst Regional Conflicts

Author:
Sahar Albazar
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Egypt, strategically positioned in the heart of the Middle East and North Africa, is grappling with significant economic pressures exacerbated by regional conflicts and geopolitical instability. The multifaceted crises stemming from the Israeli-Palestinian war, the Sudanese civil war, Libya’s political disarray, and the Russia-Ukraine war have collectively intensified the economic strains on Cairo. These challenges not only impact Egypt's economy but also threaten regional stability. Given the challenges facing Egypt and the region, Cairo is expecting from the United States to play a supportive role towards its strategic partner in the region. The international perception of regional instability is affecting Egypt’s domestic economy; tourism accounted for over 24% of GDP and employing over 2.5 million. However, the perception of insecurity in neighboring countries has deterred international visitors. Tourist arrivals declined by an estimated 25-30% between 2010-2022 compared to pre-conflicts levels. The resulting drop in tourism revenue has placed an additional strain on Egypt's foreign exchange reserves and employment relies heavily on this sector for foreign exchange earnings and employment.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Economy, Crisis Management, Economic Crisis, and Regional Stability
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt

14. Can Poverty Graduation Programs Truly Free the Poor from Poverty? Reflections on International and Regional Experiences

Author:
Howaida Adly Roman
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Poverty is an intractable structural issue, which raises a question that has been perplexing for many years: Why have multiple efforts to combat poverty not liberated the poor from its bond and captivity, allowing them the freedom of sufficiency and human dignity? Does the reason lie in the inadequacy of these efforts, or because the efforts did not address the issue of poverty from its structural causes, instead only dealing with its symptoms? The reasons for questioning this issue are varied. This uncertainty has led to the emergence of a new type of intervention that has been tested initially on limited populations, known as the “graduation out of poverty” approach. This approach was motivated by the recognition in the late 1990s that traditional poverty reduction and microfinance programs could not reach the poorest because, in addition to the barrier of income marginalization, the poor face multidimensional social, economic, and political poverty, as well as psychological and cultural barriers.1 Poverty graduation programs offer an integrated package of interventions aimed at lifting the poor out of their situation and ensuring the sustainability of their emancipation over a specific time, ranging from 24 to 36 months. In 2002, the Bangladesh Rural Advancement Committee (BRAC) developed a program to target the poorest of the poor to free them from their situation and ensure sustainable livelihoods.2 BRAC is a non-governmental organization founded in 1972; its work continued until 2001 when it expanded to include many other countries in the global south, applying its experience in poverty alleviation and establishing branches in many other countries.3 The interventions of these programs seek to combine addressing the immediate needs of those targeted with long-term investment in technical skills, life skills, asset transfer, entrepreneurial development, promoting savings opportunities, and planning for the future to ensure a sustainable exit from poverty and a stable life for these social groups.4 This paper aims to examine poverty exit programs that have been implemented in diverse social, economic, and cultural contexts around the world to draw key conclusions about the ability of these programs to deal with the root causes of poverty and vulnerability. The paper also seeks to investigate the extent to which these programs are scalable, meaning that they can be applied to larger populations; their sustainability; and the guarantee that the poor will not fall back into poverty. The paper focuses on analyzing three experiences from the Arab region, two from Egypt and one from Yemen. Yemen’s program, which is the earliest in the region, dates back to 2006 when the Consultative Group to Assist the Poor (CGAP) and the Ford Foundation decided to expand the approaches to graduation out of poverty through various contexts. In Egypt, the Bab Amal program was implemented by a group of NGOs, while the Forsa program was a government program for graduating beneficiaries of conditional cash transfers (CCT) – the Takaful program – that was implemented in partnership between the Ministry of Social Solidarity and NGOs. Bab Amal was started earlier and has undergone preliminary evaluations, while Forsa is still in its infancy. Research into global poverty graduation programs may help these two experiments avoid making similar mistakes, especially in the context of scaling up. Based on the above, this paper will shed light on what poverty graduation programs are, how they emerged and for what reasons, what role NGOs played, how governments began to adopt these programs and apply them and later expand them, and what the challenges and issues of expansion are. The paper concludes by analyzing a number of challenges facing these programs – chief among them of course the challenge of sustainability – and finally, the lessons learned.
Topic:
Development, Poverty, Economic Inequality, and Social Programs
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, North Africa, and Egypt

15. Urban Communities as Alternative to Slums: A Case Study of Egypt's Asmarat

Author:
Ibrahim Ezzeddine
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Egypt is one of the most prominent countries that are facing serious housing and informal settlements issues. The state has, at different times, developed many policies and development programs to deal with these issues. During the last decade, Egypt has witnessed a new development in addressing the issue of informal settlements: the establishment of new urban communities as alternative areas for rehousing those living in slums. This paper analyzes the Asmarat area as the most prominent governmental project in this regard, asking the following questions: To what extent do resettlement areas meet the basic needs of the population? Does the Asmarat project achieve economic, social, and cultural sustainability as a suitable housing project? The paper reviewed the Asmarat general plan in terms of the density of residential units, the road network, the distribution of commercial activities, green areas, and open spaces. The paper presents the geographical location of the study area, which is the Mokattam neighborhood in Cairo Governorate, and it reviews the general plan and the footprint for the area to be built; the three phases of the project; and the financial cost, which exceeded 3.35 billion Egyptian pounds (about US$69.8 million), according to what was announced on official websites. The paper uses the framework of economic, social and cultural rights as an indicator to assess the area. The first indicator assesses the methods of legal security of tenure. All legal safeguards that protect residents from forced eviction should be in place. The second indicator measures access to natural resources, safe drinking water, energy for cooking, heating and lighting, sanitation, waste disposal, drainage, and access to emergency services. The third indicator assesses the adequacy and affordability of housing costs in relation to personal income and the cost of daily living for individuals and families. The fourth indicator assesses the suitability of housing for family size in terms of space and protection from cold, humidity, heat, and the spread of infections. The fifth indicator assesses access to adequate housing for all those affected by the removal of their homes, and the need for alternative housing. The sixth indicator assesses the suitability of the housing location in terms of the availability of employment opportunities, access to basic and health services, access to health care and education services, and access to social services. The seventh indicator assesses the expression of the housing’s cultural and social identity, and the adaptation of the exterior and interior design and landscaping to this end.
Topic:
Urban, Informal Settlement, and Housing
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt

16. Virtual briefing: The risk of targeting regional energy assets in the ongoing Middle East conflict

Author:
Helima Croft, Colby Connelly, and Karen Young
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Helima Croft, Colby Connelly, and Karen Young, discuss the risk of retaliatory strikes on regional energy facilities; the possible impact on Israel’s natural gas production and on its importers, including Egypt and Jordan; the potential spillover to the Gulf’s energy sector; as well as the relative likelihood of the conflict leading to a major supply shock in the global energy market. Speakers: Helima Croft Head of Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research, RBC Capital Markets Colby Connelly Director, Economics and Energy Program, MEI Karen Young Non-Resident Senior Fellow and Chair of the Economics and Energy Program Advisory Council, MEI
Topic:
Markets, Imports, Energy, and Natural Gas
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Egypt, and Jordan

17. Egyptian-Turkish Relations on a Roller Coaster: Implications for the Eastern Mediterranean

Author:
Ioannis N. Grigoriadis and Electra Nisidou
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
This policy paper delves into the volatile relationship between Egypt and Turkey, examining its profound implications for the Eastern Mediterranean. Since 2020, Egyptian-Turkish relations have moved cautiously towards rapprochement following a period of intense tension. Central to this relationship is the Libyan conflict, in which both states hold substantial stakes. This study explores the current political forces driving this tentative reconciliation, as well as the ramifications of these developments for the Eastern Mediterranean. The Libyan civil war emerged as a proxy conflict between Egypt and Turkey; however, both states have since aligned their positions on the Gaza crisis, reflecting a major shift in their diplomatic approach. The significance of Libya’s oil reserves for both states cannot be overstated, as they have prompted a renewed sense of cooperation after a decade of rivalry. Despite their significant ideological differences, Egypt and Turkey have ultimately recognized the necessity of strengthening their ties across nearly all areas, including trade and military cooperation. After a decade of intense conflict shaped by competing interests and military interventions in Libya, Egypt and Turkey are now contemplating a rapprochement with a view to addressing common security and economic interests. If it signals Turkey’s wish to engage with all the countries in the region based on international norms, a rapprochement between Egypt and Turkey could prove to be a critical factor for the achievement of stability in the Eastern Mediterranean. An opportunity is emerging for Greece to promote regional cooperation in the Eastern Mediterranean
Topic:
Oil, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Military Intervention, and Proxy War
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Greece, Egypt, and Eastern Mediterranean

18. The Illusory Peace in the Israeli Palestinian Conflict with Amb. Hesham Youssef (Episode 22)

Author:
Hesham Youssef
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:
The present state of the unfulfilled peace brokering process between Palestine and Israel stands to undermine any meaningful progression toward the two-state solution proffered by dominant actors in the West. Host Sahar Aziz (https://saharazizlaw.com/) , in discussion with the former Egyptian Ambassador Hesham Youssef, explores the argument that Western ambivalence to the issue of Palestinian sovereignty has significantly eroded the path toward a peace agreement.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, Peacebuilding, and Two-State Solution
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, and Egypt

19. Do No Harm: Toward an Environmental Audit of Military-Managed Civilian Projects in Egypt

Author:
Yezid Sayigh
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In order for Egypt to respond effectively to the alarming environmental threats it faces, it must bring the large number of military-managed projects and production in the civilian domain under a single, integrated national framework for climate change mitigation and adaptation planning, monitoring, and accountability.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Accountability, Civil-Military Relations, and Mitigation
Political Geography:
North Africa and Egypt

20. Egypt’s 2023–24 Economic Crisis: Will This Time Be Different?

Author:
Ruchir Agarwal and Adnan Mazarei
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Egypt narrowly averted a full-blown economic crisis in early 2024 when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others gave Egypt a financial lifeline to curb its losses of foreign exchange reserves. This Policy Brief traces the origins and developments of the current crisis, and the country's history of repeated balance of payments crises. The 2023-24 crisis is one of eight such events in Egypt since 1952, driven by governance and policy deficiencies. The COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have exacerbated Egypt's problems. Egypt's strategic importance in the Middle East, underscored by the Gaza conflict, has ensured continued international financial support, allowing Egypt to bet on its "too strategic to fail" position and avoid reforms. Entrenched military dominance and cronyism have obstructed necessary economic reforms. The authors conclude that Egypt needs to address these challenges and undertake major reforms to break free from its recurring cycle of crises and stop relying on international bailouts.
Topic:
Foreign Exchange, Currency, COVID-19, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
North Africa and Egypt