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502. Serbia's Transition: Reforms Under Siege
- Publication Date:
- 09-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The 3 August 2001 murder of former State Security (DB) official Momir Gavrilovic acted as a catalyst for the emergence of a long-hidden feud within Serbia's ruling DOS (Democratic Opposition of Serbia) coalition. Inflamed by Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica's closest advisers, the 'Gavrilovic Affair' has driven a wedge into DOS that could spell the end of the coalition in its present form. In so doing, Kostunica's Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) has been exposed more clearly than before as a conservative nationalist party intent on preserving certain elements of the Milosevic regime.
- Topic:
- Security, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Serbia
503. Macedonia: Filling the Security Vacuum
- Publication Date:
- 09-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The war option has, for the moment, been checked, but Macedonia is very far from being at peace. Neither the agreement signed on 13 August 2001 2 by the four Macedonian governing parties – two ethnic Macedonian, two ethnic Albanian – nor the subsequent limited NATO deployment, nor the first-stage approval of necessary constitutional amendments by the Macedonian parliament on 6 September have yet given anyone confidence that peace is sustainable. The parliamentary vote, for example, came only after an acrimonious debate in which markers were laid down that ultimate approval of the legislative package could not be taken for granted.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Human Rights
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Macedonia, and Albania
504. Albania's Parliamentary Elections 2001
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Socialist Party's decision on 21 August to nominate Ilir Meta for another term as Prime Minister closed out the longest election in Albania's turbulent post-communist history. Voting for the parliament was held, extraordinarily, in four rounds on 24 June 2001, and 8, 22 and 29 July due to accusations of electoral fraud in various forms. It was, nevertheless, peaceful and produced a decisive victory for the ruling Socialist Party (SP). The Socialists, who have held power since 1997, won 73 seats in the 140-member legislature, against 46 for the Union for Victory (UfV) coalition, led by the Democratic Party (DP). The remaining 21 seats were allocated among five small parties, each of which gained the necessary 2.5 per cent of votes, and two independent candidates who won direct mandates. The results gave the Socialists a sufficient majority to form a new government and, crucially, with the aid of likely allies, to elect a new president in 2002 when the term of the incumbent, Rexhep Meidani, expires. Formation of that government, however, was delayed further weeks until the SP's General Steering Committee gave Meta an overwhelming victory in his bitter personal battle with the party chairman, Fatos Nano, who backed his own man for the prime minister's chair.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Nationalism, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Albania
505. Macedonia: War on Hold
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Macedonian and Albanian political leaders signed a political agreement – hailed by its Western midwives as a peace agreement – on 13 August 2001. NATO Secretary General Lord Robertson and the European Union's High Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy, Javier Solana, flew to Skopje to attend the signing ceremony. But the strange context of the signing showed just how implausible it is that, without further extraordinary efforts, the agreement will actually provide a workable way to keep multiethnic Macedonia out of civil war. Details of the agreement had been hammered out by 8 August in Ohrid, a resort town chosen for the negotiations because it was some distance away from the latest fighting. Signature was delayed five days, however, while Macedonian government troops and ethnic Albanian rebels engaged in the deadliest series yet of tit-for-tat retaliations. Terms of the agreement were withheld from the public lest they provoke violent responses from hardliners on both sides. The ceremony, when it finally occurred, was carried out almost furtively, in a small room of the President's residence, without live television.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, Macedonia, and Albania
506. Peace in Presevo: Quick Fix or Long Term Solution?
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The past decade in the Western Balkans has seen very few peacefully negotiated transfers of territorial control. The most recent example ñ albeit one not involving any change of sovereignty - was also the only one achieved by NATOís direct mediation. In May 2001, the Presevo Valley was brought back under Serbian government control, ending an ethnic Albanian insurgency that had lasted some seventeen months.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Balkans
507. Bosnia's Precarious Economy: Still not Open for Business
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Bosnia's economic reality is still bleak. After more than five years and five billion dollars of Dayton implementation, the country seems only at the beginning of an economic transition that should have begun in 1996.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia and Eastern Europe
508. Montenegro: Resolving the Independence Deadlock
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Ten months after the fall of Slobodan Miloöević , considerable progress has been made in establishing democratic governance in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) and reintegrating the country into the international community. Yet the future of the federation itself remains in doubt. The FRY is a hollow edifice whose institutions hardly function except as an address for the international community. Montenegroís authorities no longer recognise the legitimacy of the federal government. All sides agree that the status quo is unsustainable and that Montenegro and Serbia must find a new basis for their relationship.
- Topic:
- Government, Politics, and Sovereignty
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe
509. Macedonia: Still Sliding
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Despite the ceasefire announced on 26 July 2001, and the promised resumption of political talks in Tetovo on 27 July, Macedonia is still locked in crisis and threatened by war. Neither ethnic Macedonian nor ethnic Albanian leaders have been converted to belief in a 'civic' settlement that would strengthen democracy by improving minority conditions, without weakening the integrity of the state. Ethnic Macedonians fear that civic reforms will transform the country exclusively to its, and their, detriment, while ethnic Albanians are sceptical that any reforms can really be made to work in their favour. Nor have separatists from both sides, within the country and in the diaspora, given up their conviction that security for their communities can only be achieved by demarcating – and hence competing for – ethnically “pure” territory.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Macedonia, and Albania
510. Milosevic in the Hague: What it Means for Yugoslavia and the Region
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- On 28 June 2001, St Vitus's Day – an anniversary with enormous resonance in Yugoslavia – Serbian government transferred former Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic to The Hague. By this bold political move, the government demonstrated in the clearest way its will to break with the past. With the timing driven by the international donors conference scheduled for 29 June, the transfer also confirmed the effectiveness of conditioning economic assistance to Yugoslavia on concrete political progress.
- Topic:
- Security, Human Rights, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Serbia