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311. Kosovo: Ethnic Nationalism at Its Territorial Worst

Author:
Daniel Serwer and Yll Bajraktari
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The international community\'s military and financial investments in the Balkans over the past fifteen years have led to substantial improvements in most of the territories of the former Yugoslavia. This progress will be put at risk if talks on Kosovo\'s status lead to de facto ethnoterritorial separation, with Serbs governed on their own territory by Belgrade without reference to Pristina. Partition, or something approaching it, could trigger another wave of violence, mass displacement of civilians, and instability in multiethnic states of the region. The international community has failed so far to reintegrate Serbs into Kosovo. Freedom of movement is insufficient, Serbs returning to their homes in Albanian-majority areas are minimal, Kosovo\'s governing institutions lack Serb representation, and Belgrade has tightened its grip on Serbs living in the north and in enclaves elsewhere. Serbia aims to govern the Serbs of Kosovo directly from Belgrade on clearly defined territory and without reference to Pristina. This is precisely the kind of ethnoterritorial separation that will cause trouble throughout the region. The Kosovo Albanian leadership has failed to improve the living conditions of Serbs living in Albanian-majority areas. Hardliners among Kosovo Albanians would also like to see ethnoterritorial separation, as it would offer them a chance to expel the remaining Kosovo Serbs south of the Ibar River and rid themselves of a “Trojan horse.” If the status talks lead to ethnoterritorial separation in Kosovo, serious instability could affect southern Serbia (Presevo Valley), western Macedonia, and Bosnia.
Topic:
International Relations, Ethnic Conflict, and Nationalism
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Serbia, Balkans, and Albania

312. Georgia's Rose Revolution: A Participant's Perspective

Author:
Giorgi Kandelaki
Publication Date:
07-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Efforts to resist calling the 2003 events in Georgia a “revolution” were misplaced. Although the turmoil was marked by a lack of violence, a critical mass of people did come out to move the country away from the rampant corruption of the Shevardnadze regimes of 1972 to 1985 (when he was Communist Party first secretary) and 1992 to 2003 (when he was president). As president, Shevardnadze supported independent civil society groups and media outlets such as the television station Rustavi-2. His support of these groups ended in 2001, when he tried to shut down Rustavi-2. This action prompted reform-minded members of his government to form opposition parties. Before the 2003 parliamentary elections, opposition groups hoped only to gain momentum for the 2005 presidential elections. However, blatant electoral fraud, Shevardnadze's refusal to compromise, and the discipline of nonviolent opposition groups precipitated his exit. The youth group Kmara (Enough) played an important role in combating widespread political apathy among the Georgian public and youth in particular. The successful mobilization of so many young people continues to reverberate as former Kmara members maintain their interest in politics. Saakashvili's National Movement party believed that its success depended on radicalizing the political sphere and thereby broadening political participation. It was particularly effective at increasing political participation among provincial populations. Georgia's independent media, particularly Rustavi-2, supported the Rose Revolution by providing a forum for opposition parties and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) critical of the government. The channel also co-funded and broadcast exit polls that contradicted the official election results. Although a few civil society organizations did play significant roles in the revolution, most were constrained by foreign funding priorities and their own elitism. Similarly, foreign actors played a limited role because they lacked information or were overly cautious about fostering significant political change. There was no violence because the various security forces chose not to respond to public demonstrations with force. Three main factors drove their decision: 1) The security forces were accustomed to responding to democratic pressures and not defending autocratic rule; 2) a divided ruling party could not speak with one voice; 3) opposition groups, including Kmara, made strong efforts to build sympathy for their cause while downplaying the threat posed by political change. International actors can best support democratic transitions by targeting assistance to nationwide election watchdogs, such as the International Society for Fair Elections and Democracy (ISFED), that can carry out parallel vote tabulations (PVT). Ideally, large numbers of observers from similar organizations outside Georgia should be deployed, since they can be more outspoken about electoral fraud.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, and Government
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Georgia

313. Parties of Power as Roadblocks to Democracy: The Cases of Ukraine and Egypt

Author:
Madalena Resende and Hendrik Kraetzschmar
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Political parties are the backbone of any functioning representative democracy. They are the agents that compete in the political arena for public office by offering programmatic alternatives to voters. It is not surprising therefore that an analysis of countries that have failed to democratise shows political parties suffering from a severe pathology that renders them weak institutions. In both the eastern and the southern neighbourhood of the EU, a type of party has emerged, the 'party of power' characterised by its dependence on the state, the absence of ideology and the linkage with specific sectoral groups. Examples of such parties can be found in Ukraine during the reign of President Kuchma and in present-day Egypt.
Topic:
Democratization
Political Geography:
Africa, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Egypt

314. The Black Sea as Epicentre of the Aftershocks of the EU's Earthquake

Author:
Michael Emerson
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
It so happens that the epicentre of the EU's referenda earthquake – by way of its external impact – has now been located exactly in the middle of the Black Sea. Paradoxically, this comes at the same time that the region has begun to show signs of possibly getting a grip on itself.
Topic:
Government and International Organization
Political Geography:
Turkey, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Bulgaria, and Romania

315. Lessons Not Learned: Problems with Western Aid for Law Reform in Postcommunist Countries

Author:
Wade Channell
Publication Date:
05-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
THE FALL OF THE BERLIN WALL IN 1989 and the subsequent breakup of the Soviet Union presented an unparalleled opportunity for fundamental political and economic change in more than two dozen countries. As postcommunist countries sought to attain the economic development of their Western neighbors, it became clear that the existing framework of laws and institutions would not support the desired growth. Reformers and development experts soon identified a panoply of gaps and shortcomings in financial resources, human resources, and organizational capacity, all of which appeared ripe for outside assistance.
Topic:
International Relations and Economics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Soviet Union, Portugal, and Berlin

316. A Spreading Danger: Time for a New Policy Toward Chechnya

Author:
Anatol Lieven, Fiona Hill, and Thomas de Waal
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The ongoing conflict in and around Chechnya is helping to feed the wider international jihadi movement, and is endangering the West as well as Russia. The next “soft target” of North Caucasian terrorism could be a Western one. Mutual recriminations over the conflict have badly damaged relations between Russia and the West. While most of the blame for this lies with Russian policies, the Western approach to the issue has often been unhelpful and irresponsible. Denunciations of Russian behavior have not been matched by a real understanding of the Chechen conflict or a real commitment to help.
Topic:
Diplomacy and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, and North Caucasus

317. How Russia is Not Ukraine: The Closing of Russian Civil Society

Author:
Maria Lipman
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The revolutionary events in Ukraine in November–December 2004 highlighted the absence of checks and balances in the Russian political system. What happened in Ukraine is inconceivable in today's Russia.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Asia

318. Political Alternation, Regardless of Ideology, Diminishes Influence Buying: Lessons from Transitions in Former Communist States

Author:
Karla Hoff, Shale Horowitz, and Branko Milanovic
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The Relationship between Alternation in Power and Governance: In many countries, for many firms, it is more profitable to pay off influential politicians to obtain property rights protection à la carte than to rely on existing rules of the game, or to support new institutions that would provide general protection of property rights. This is particularly likely to be the case in the early stages of economic liberalization and the transition to democracy, when state institutions and legal systems are too weak to check executive power, legal boundaries on corruption are not well-defined, and institutions to protect private property rights may be undeveloped. What factors can make influence buying less profitable? The most direct way to break the grip on state power of private interests is through the alternation of officeholders with new political players. Businesses often have “dedicated” relationships with specific political parties or politicians, but if “their” party or leader loses power, businesses' investments in influence may be wasted, since the new officeholders will not be beholden to them and may even punish them. It is true that when businesses expect political turnover, they may respond by trying to influence the entire political spectrum of parties. But attempting to influence all political players is prohibitively costly if there are many parties with widely different political ideologies. In that case, the most successful strategy for influence seekers would be to accept more transparent and equitable rules of competition and checks on arbitrary state action—a rule of law.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Government
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe

319. Forgotten Intervention? What the United States Needs to Do in the Western Balkans

Author:
William L. Nash and Amelia Branczik
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
In 2002, the Center for Preventive Action published Balkans 2010, a Task Force report that laid out a vision for a stable, peaceful western Balkans (comprising Croatia, Serbia and Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, and Albania) and identified the requisite objectives and milestones to achieve that vision. Many of the report's recommendations remain valid today, particularly the need to strengthen democracy and the rule of law, dismantle politico-criminal syndicates, and promote economic reform and development.
Topic:
International Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Bosnia, Herzegovina, Eastern Europe, Serbia, Balkans, Macedonia, and Albania

320. From Bound Duties to Actual Protection: Industrial Liberalisation in the Doha Round

Author:
Mohamed Hedi Bchir, Lionel Fontagné, and Sébastien Jean
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
In the background of the Doha Round of trade negotiations, this study proposes a CGE assessment of multilateral liberalisation of market access for non-agricultural products. The scenarios considered include the so-called 'Girard proposal' (with alternative choices for the coefficient involved), the removal of tariff peaks and complete liberalisation. This study is the first to take into account the difference between bound and applied tariffs, while considering all the enforced preferential trade arrangements and computing tariff cuts at the detailed product level (HS-6 classification). Although the liberalisation of market access for non-agricultural products is found to be welfare-enhancing at the world level, cross-country distributive effects prove significant. A soft liberalisation would not significantly reduce applied duties in developing countries, owing to their considerable binding overhang. By contrast, a deep liberalisation would entail fierce price competition among those developing countries that are largely specialised in similar sectors and in the same product quality range.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe