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171. Strategic Implications of the War in Ukraine for the Post-Soviet Space: A View from Central Asia

Author:
Farkod Tolipov
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
The ongoing war in Ukraine is shaking the foundation of the already fragile Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). After the separation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia from Georgia and the splitting of Pridnestrovye from Moldova, Russia’s annexation of Crimea and keeping Ukraine in a lasting crisis by tactics that “take on attrition,” Russia not only has fallen under international economic sanctions but also aroused suspicions about its neo-imperial syndrome among post-Soviet friends on Russia’s perimeter. Not only has the international community condemned Russia’s actions in Ukraine, but the intra-Commonwealth community has also been painfully strained by these actions. Paradoxically and ironically, such dramatic events are unfolding simultaneously with seemingly integrationist undertakings regarding the assemblage of the Euro-Asian Economic Union (EAEU). Both the war in Ukraine and creation of the EAEU have revealed the invalidity of the CIS and displayed the start of a new stage of restructuring and reformatting of what has been known as the post-Soviet space. How this space will be re-configured will have global geopolitical implications, as these processes are taking place on one sixth of the Earth – the vast geographical area that Tsarist Russia and the Soviets once proudly ascribed to themselves. Actually, the crisis of the CIS began right after its inception in 1991 when, in parallel, the then newly independent five Central Asian states decided to establish their own Commonwealth – CAC. Since then, different smaller commonwealths have coexisted alongside the CIS in the post-Soviet space, steadily undermining the construction of the CIS itself. The longer the war in Ukraine protracts, the more will Russia alienate Ukrainians and the more any integration around and with Russia will replicate the feigned CIS. Lately, Central Asia has been taking an unclear lesson from this geopolitical situation and is making an ambiguous strategic choice. This paper is devoted to the analysis of these aforementioned three focal points: the implications of the war in Ukraine for the CIS, Russia’s fault and the Central Asian countries’ reaction.
Topic:
Imperialism, Military Strategy, Armed Conflict, and EAEU
Political Geography:
Europe, Central Asia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Asia

172. How Russia, Step by Step, Wants to Regain an Imperial Role in the Global and European Security System

Author:
Zofia Studzinska
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
Russia has been an empire for centuries. After the fall of communism and the disintegration of the Soviet Union, many countries saw a chance to build a new world order and a new international and European security system. But for Moscow, the last 15 years were simply an aberration to be rectified rather than the new reality. Currently, we are witnessing the Russian Federation attempt to rebuild its sphere of influence and restore its borders to what they were during the time of the Cold War. The first sign of Russia testing this plan was the Russo-Georgian war in August 2008. After a poor reaction from the West, Moscow decided to pursue another confrontation, this time going much further, challenging the limits of the possible – the annexation of Crimea in March 2014 and the conflict in Eastern Ukraine, ongoing from April 2014. With the lack of a strong response from the Western countries, one can assume that Russia is on its way to rebuilding its imperial position and will continue to grasp for control of other territories.
Topic:
Imperialism, Military Strategy, Empire, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

173. The Terrorist Threats Against Russia and its Counterterrorism Response Measures

Author:
Joshua Sinai
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
As of mid-2015, the primarily Islamist-based terrorist threats against Russia and its counterterrorism response measures continued to be in the spotlight. These Islamist terrorist threats, it must be pointed out, were unrelated to Russia’s other national security problems emanating from its intervention in Ukraine, which will not be discussed in this article. As with other Western countries, the latest phase of the terrorist threats against Russia has become even more complicated than before, with large-scale involvement by a reported 1,700 “homegrown violent extremists” (HVE),[1] primarily North Caucasus-based, many of whom have travelled to Syria and Iraq to join the Islamic State’s insurgents and to fight the Moscow-supported Bashar al-Assad government as well as the Shi’ite government in Baghdad (which is also backed by Tehran – Russia’s close ally), with their violent extremism also directed against the Russian state. As part of this phase, although unrelated to the involvement of the aforementioned Russian Islamists in Syria, Russian airpower was deployed in Syria in September 2015 to support the besieged al-Assad regime against the Islamic State. The earlier phase of the terrorist threats against Russia was highlighted by the April 15, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, which were perpetrated by two brothers of ethnic Chechen origin (one of whom was reportedly monitored by Russia’s security services during his stay in Dagestan), as well several significant terrorist attacks in late 2013 during the lead-up to the Sochi Winter Olympics, which were held in February 2014 without a terrorist incident. Overall, the primary terrorist threats against the Russian Federation are presented by the Islamist insurgents in the North Caucasus, who are organized into several groups that are loosely allied with al-Qaeda’s global Jihad. Fortunately for Russia, in their most significant threat over the past several years, these Islamist militants were thwarted in their intent to exploit the worldwide media attention associated with the February 2014 Olympic sporting events, which were located close to the North Caucasus, several hundred miles from the Republic of Dagestan, where they were mounting an insurgency to establish an Islamic state in that region. In response, Russia greatly boosted its counterterrorism measures in the North Caucasus republics as well as in other parts of the country, thereby preventing these insurgents from succeeding in their terrorist plots. Nevertheless, the attraction of jihadi groups such as the Iraq- and Syria-based Islamic State in radicalizing hundreds of Russian Islamists into joining their insurgency expanded the geographical scope of the terrorist threats against Russia, particularly upon the return of some of them to Russia to carry out attacks in light of Moscow’s support of the Syrian and Iraqi regimes and their call to establish an Islamist caliphate in the North Caucasus.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, and War on Terror
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Eastern Europe

174. Entre européanisation et fragmentation, quel modèle de développement pour le territoire ukrainien? (Between Europeanization and fragmentation, what model of development for the Ukrainian territory?)

Author:
Gilles Lepesant
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
One week before the third Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius on November 28-29, 2013, Ukraine suspended the preparation of an association agreement with the European Union, which had been under negotiation since 2007. When the agreement was finally signed in June 2014, President Yanukovych had fled the country under people’s pressure, and the integrity of Ukraine was challenged in the East by separatists and their Russian allies. These events came paradoxically at a time when the country's cohesion seemed stronger than in the 1990s. Far from being divided into two parts, Ukraine consists of the pieces of broken empires that all have good reasons to join in the state, as recent as this one may be. Indeed, its geography, electoral or economic, does not show a split between two blocks, but various lines of division that do not necessarily herald the breaking up of the state. Since the independence, this diversity had never been translated into new institutions: for several reasons, the reshaping of the centralized regime inherited from the Soviet era was deemed untimely by the country’s political forces. Presented as a priority by the members of the Parliament elected in 2014, the reform of territorial government is being implemented while Ukraine’s driving regions are either paralyzed or threatened by war.
Topic:
Nationalism, Sovereignty, War, Territorial Disputes, Europeanization, Memory, Borders, and State
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Central Europe, and European Union

175. Survivors Speak: Reflections on Criminal Justice System Responses to Domestic Violence in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Author:
Majda Halilović and Heather Huhtanen
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
Domestic violence has increasingly been recognized as a societal problem and a criminal act as opposed to a private family matter. This is demonstrated by legislation that criminalizes acts of family violence and promotes gender equality and human rights. The question remains, however, whether criminal justice system professionals (police, prosecutors and judges) are applying existing legislation intended to hold perpetrators accountable, protect victims and their children and ultimately interrupt the damaging intergenerational pattern of domestic violence. This research explores the experiences of survivors of systematic domestic violence and contrasts those stories with common theories on the causes of domestic violence and criminal justice system practices in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The resulting publication reveals the extent to which systematic domestic violence is not appreciated as a serious criminal violation, and as a result, places victims, their children and the community at increased risk. Survivors Speak goes on to concretely identify evidence based risk factors within cases of domestic violence, validated through qualitative research in BiH. These risk factors can be used by criminal justice system professionals to appropriately assess and tailor the police, prosecutorial and judicial response to domestic violence, thereby enhancing victim and community safety and interrupting the intergenerational cycle of domestic violence
Topic:
Crime, Gender Issues, Human Rights, Law Enforcement, Gender Based Violence, Memory, and Violence
Political Geography:
Geneva, Europe, Eastern Europe, and Bosnia and Herzegovina

176. Decoding the Soviet Press by Tom Kent

Author:
Tom Kent
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Harriman Institute
Abstract:
Every press has its goals. In the United States, reporters focus on the role of the press as a counterbalance to government power. In some cultures, the press can be tasked with advancing national or religious causes. In the Soviet Union, the press was about serving the interests of the Communist Party.
Topic:
Communism, Media, Journalism, The Press, Freedom of Press, and State Media
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Soviet Union

177. Choreographies of Shared Sacred Sites: Religion, Politics, and Conflict Resolution

Author:
Elazar Barkan and Barkey Karen
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
Columbia University Press
Abstract:
This anthology explores the dynamics of shared religious sites in Turkey, the Balkans, Palestine/Israel, Cyprus, and Algeria, indicating where local and national stakeholders maneuver between competition and cooperation, coexistence and conflict. Contributors probe the notion of coexistence and the logic that underlies centuries of "sharing," exploring when and why sharing gets interrupted--or not--by conflict, and the policy consequences. These essays map the choreographies of shared sacred spaces within the framework of state-society relations, juxtaposing a site's political and religious features and exploring whether sharing or contestation is primarily religious or politically motivated. Although religion and politics are intertwined phenomena, the contributors to this volume understand the category of "religion" and the "political" as devices meant to distinguish between the theological and confessional aspects of religion and the political goals of groups. Their comparative approach better represents the transition in some cases of sites into places of hatred and violence, while in other instances they remain noncontroversial. The essays clearly delineate the religious and political factors that contribute to the context and causality of conflict at these sites and draw on history and anthropology to shed light on the often rapid switch from relative tolerance to distress to peace and calm.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Religion, International Affairs, and Culture
Political Geography:
Middle East, Eastern Europe, and North Africa
Publication Identifier:
9780231169943
Publication Identifier Type:
ISBN

178. Russia and the West

Author:
Ye. Bazhanov
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
East View Information Services
Abstract:
Is Russia a Partner of the West? This question has been repeatedly asked throughout centuries both in Russia and in the West. In the 13th century, German crusaders, with the Pope’s blessing, invaded the Baltics and pushed further on to Russia, seeking political and spiritual domination. In Russia, this created a rift between those who wanted to draw closer to the West and those who saw it as a deadly threat to the unique east Slavic Orthodox civilization. The crusaders were pushed back, while Russia throughout three more centuries was learning, first unwillingly and later much more consciously, to associate itself with the Tatar-Mongol khans, the conquerors who came from the east.
Topic:
Politics, History, Bilateral Relations, and Culture
Political Geography:
Russia and Eastern Europe

179. Institutions of the Russian fiscal federalism: 20 years of evolution

Author:
Elena Jarocinska
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
In this brief, Elena Jarocinska summarizes the main thrust of Russian federal fiscal institutions and discusses their specific features. She describes the evolution of federal fiscal regulations since the establishment of the Russian federal state. As a conclusion, she offers the following policy recommendations: tax autonomy of subnational governments which is currently very limited should be increased; federal aid should be further formalized and made more transparent; regulations should not be changed from year to year to provide for a more stable environment; and subnational interests should be better protected at the institutional level.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Reform, Tax Systems, Institutions, Fiscal Policy, Trade, and Post-Socialist Economies
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Central Asia, Caucasus, and Eastern Europe

180. Future scenarios for the development of the European labour force

Author:
Anna Ruzik-Sierdzińska
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The future size and quality of the European labour force are important production factors for future economic growth in the region. The performance of many systems such as social security and health depends on the population of future potential tax payers. Older workers are an important and increasing share of the employment in Europe. Due to lower fertility and longer life expectancy, today, a larger than ever share of the population is over 50. Eurostat projections show that the share of people between the ages of 50 and 74 in the population aged 20-74 will increase in the EU27 countries from the current 40 per cent to 47 per cent in 2050. However, countries differ in terms of elderly activity. Existing studies show that this is related to various factors, including labour market institutions. As demographic ageing is expected to continue in the future, it is important to know more about these factors in order to recommend policies that could be efficient for the development of future labour markets and the economy as a whole. The aim of the described part of the project was to assess the impact of ageing on the labour market, especially on the structure of the labour force and labour productivity. We looked at this from various angles. First, we examined it via the determinants of the transition from work to retirement (see: Riedel and Hofer, 2013) with a broader analysis of non-labour market activities at older ages (Styczyńska et al., 2013). Then, we tried to answer the question about how individual productivity changes with age in different countries and if lifelong learning can contribute to higher labour productivity in the future (Ruzik-Sierdzińska et al., 2013). Finally, we looked at the demand for labour in the perspective of ageing societies, i.e. at employers' policies, attitudes and behaviours towards older workers and retirement (van Dalen et al., 2013).
Topic:
Demographics, Markets, Labor Issues, Social Policy, Public Policy, and Aging
Political Geography:
Europe, Central Asia, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and European Union