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11. Addressing the Transnistrian Conflict: Competing Stances of Moldova's Political Parties and Expert Community

Author:
Oleh Protsyk, Andrei Volentir, and Igor Bucătaru
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues
Abstract:
The Transnistrian conflict continues to be one of the most important issues facing political parties and the expert community in Moldova. Since the start of the post-communist transition period, political parties have routinely felt the necessity to articulate their approaches to solving the conflict. During both electoral and inter-electoral periods, the Transnistrian issue has occupied a special position on the country's political agenda. This has required political parties to take a stance on the issue. Similarly, the country's expert community, which includes academics, political analysts, and media commentators, has struggled with the need to explain and interpret the conflict to their audiences. In presenting such interpretations for the general public, they could not avoid formulating their own positions on potential causes of and solutions to the conflict.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Moldova and Eastern Europe

12. Serbia's New Government: Turning from Europe

Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Serbia finally has a new government but one that is deeply divided between pro-Western and nationalist forces. Facing two difficult issues–Kosovo status and cooperation with the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY)–its choice is between moving towards European integration or on to a more isolationist path. The government's composition, deep mistrust among many of its members and the parliament's nationalist majority suggest it will follow the second option. Pro-Western forces have suffered a significant setback, the government is vulnerable to manipulation by the security services and oligarchs, and the system of divided responsibility for the security services renders unlikely serious cooperation with the ICTY, especially the arrests of Ratko Mladic and Radovan Karadzic. Although Kosovo independence could destabilise the government, it may surprise and last far longer and prove more stable than expected. The West should prepare for Serbia turning increasingly away from Europe and towards Moscow.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Nationalism
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Moscow, and Serbia

13. Further Towards Post-Communism? From 'Left' to Regions in Ukraine

Author:
Geir Flikke and Sergey O. Kisselyov
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
This paper is based on an analysis of electoral support to left-wing movements of parties and blocs in Ukraine from 1998 to 2006. It argues that traditional left-wing ideologies and thereby the position of the left-wing parties have eroded in the political landscape of Ukraine. The authors hold that this is due not only to the decline of traditional left-wing ideologies in Ukraine's electorate, but also to the return of a strong managed party for the Eastern regions of the country.
Topic:
Development and Government
Political Geography:
Ukraine and Eastern Europe

14. Sub-regional SALW Collection Seminar

Publication Date:
07-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
South Eastern Europe Clearinghouse for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons
Abstract:
Government, NGO and International Organisation representatives from Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, the UN Administered Territory of Kosovo, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, and Montenegro participated in a sub-regional SALW (Weapons) Collection Seminar in Budva, Montenegro from 12 - 13 July 2006. The objective of the seminar was to discuss 'best practices' and share operational experience of SALW Collection activities within South Eastern Europe, in order to assist the Government of Montenegro in planning a possible SALW Collection process later this year.
Topic:
Government, Non-Governmental Organization, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Macedonia, Albania, and Croatia

15. Recent Commentary: Viktor's Choice - Who Will Form Ukraine's Parliamentary Majority?

Author:
Steve Pifer
Publication Date:
04-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
What a difference a year makes. The 2004 Ukrainian presidential election entailed massive fraud, sent hundreds of thousands of protesters into the streets, and sparked a revolution. The March 26 parliamentary elections, by contrast, were strikingly calm and ordinary. The Orange Revolution's main hero, President Viktor Yushchenko, saw his party, Our Ukraine, come in a disappointing third. He nevertheless remains in the driver's seat in deciding who will make up the ruling coalition in the next Rada (parliament).
Topic:
Civil Society and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Asia

16. Abkhazia Today

Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Conflict over Abkhazia, squeezed between the Black Sea and the Caucasus mountains, has festered since the 1992- 1993 fighting. Internationally recognised as part of Georgia and largely destroyed, with half the pre-war population forcibly displaced, Abkhazia is establishing the institutions of an independent state. In twelve years since the ceasefire, the sides have come no closer to a settlement despite ongoing UN-mediated negotiations.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Government
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Georgia, and Abkhazia

17. Serbia's New Constitution: Democracy Going Backwards

Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Premier Vojislav Kostunica won a high stakes gamble with passage of Serbia's draft constitution in the 28-29 October referendum. However, numerous credible reports indicate the process was deeply flawed and the result falsified. The referendum cannot be characterised as either free or fair. The new constitution could prove a step away from European values. It opens the door to increased centralisation of the state, curtailment of human and minority rights, destruction of judicial independence and potentially even a parliamentary dictatorship. The process used to pass the constitution illustrates how Kostunica continues to transform Serbia into something closer to illiberal authoritarianism than liberal democracy; yet, the referendum was welcomed by the Council of Europe, the European Union and the United States.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Eastern Europe, and Serbia

18. Moldova's Uncertain Future

Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
With Romania's expected entry into the European Union in 2007, the EU will share a border with Moldova, a weak state divided by conflict and plagued by corruption and organised crime. Moldova's leadership has declared its desire to join the EU, but its commitment to European values is suspect, and efforts to resolve its dispute with the breakaway region of Transdniestria have failed to end a damaging stalemate that has persisted for fifteen years. Young people have little confidence in the country's future and are leaving at an alarming rate. If Moldova is to become a stable part of the EU's neighbourhood, there will need to be much greater international engagement, not only in conflict resolution but in spurring domestic reforms to help make the country more attractive to its citizens.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe, Moldova, Eastern Europe, and Romania

19. Georgia's Rose Revolution: A Participant's Perspective

Author:
Giorgi Kandelaki
Publication Date:
07-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Efforts to resist calling the 2003 events in Georgia a “revolution” were misplaced. Although the turmoil was marked by a lack of violence, a critical mass of people did come out to move the country away from the rampant corruption of the Shevardnadze regimes of 1972 to 1985 (when he was Communist Party first secretary) and 1992 to 2003 (when he was president). As president, Shevardnadze supported independent civil society groups and media outlets such as the television station Rustavi-2. His support of these groups ended in 2001, when he tried to shut down Rustavi-2. This action prompted reform-minded members of his government to form opposition parties. Before the 2003 parliamentary elections, opposition groups hoped only to gain momentum for the 2005 presidential elections. However, blatant electoral fraud, Shevardnadze's refusal to compromise, and the discipline of nonviolent opposition groups precipitated his exit. The youth group Kmara (Enough) played an important role in combating widespread political apathy among the Georgian public and youth in particular. The successful mobilization of so many young people continues to reverberate as former Kmara members maintain their interest in politics. Saakashvili's National Movement party believed that its success depended on radicalizing the political sphere and thereby broadening political participation. It was particularly effective at increasing political participation among provincial populations. Georgia's independent media, particularly Rustavi-2, supported the Rose Revolution by providing a forum for opposition parties and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) critical of the government. The channel also co-funded and broadcast exit polls that contradicted the official election results. Although a few civil society organizations did play significant roles in the revolution, most were constrained by foreign funding priorities and their own elitism. Similarly, foreign actors played a limited role because they lacked information or were overly cautious about fostering significant political change. There was no violence because the various security forces chose not to respond to public demonstrations with force. Three main factors drove their decision: 1) The security forces were accustomed to responding to democratic pressures and not defending autocratic rule; 2) a divided ruling party could not speak with one voice; 3) opposition groups, including Kmara, made strong efforts to build sympathy for their cause while downplaying the threat posed by political change. International actors can best support democratic transitions by targeting assistance to nationwide election watchdogs, such as the International Society for Fair Elections and Democracy (ISFED), that can carry out parallel vote tabulations (PVT). Ideally, large numbers of observers from similar organizations outside Georgia should be deployed, since they can be more outspoken about electoral fraud.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, and Government
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Georgia

20. The Black Sea as Epicentre of the Aftershocks of the EU's Earthquake

Author:
Michael Emerson
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
It so happens that the epicentre of the EU's referenda earthquake – by way of its external impact – has now been located exactly in the middle of the Black Sea. Paradoxically, this comes at the same time that the region has begun to show signs of possibly getting a grip on itself.
Topic:
Government and International Organization
Political Geography:
Turkey, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Bulgaria, and Romania