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1. Aircraft vulnerability to politically motivated Radio Frequency Interference (RFI) in Eastern Europe

Author:
Tegg Westbrook
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
Countries in Europe have experienced radio frequency interference from Russian electronic warfare units, affecting navigation systems without discrimination. Interference has been identified as coming from the Russian mainland, Kaliningrad, and in the areas where it is engaged in conflicts abroad, creating serious hazards for aircraft. Previous research has identified the technical vulnerabilities to aviation from radio frequency interference, but it has yet to be contextualised in light of the ongoing geopolitical tensions. Using literature review analysis, the aim of the article is to place the jamming and spoofing threat in the context of ongoing political tensions between Russia and the region and to establish worse-case scenarios based on the former’s motives. Focusing on the threats to aircraft, it finds that the likely motivations are to (1) complement political narratives of Western aggression; (2) to deny service for intimidation, harassment, economic loss, and to portray a dominant Russian cyber influence; and (3) to use spoofing to enable hostage diplomacy via the seizure of people and assets. It argues that reporting mechanisms for aviation risks assumes geographical staticism, which does not correspond adequately to the threat. It also creates arbitrary “predictability” in otherwise unpredictable environments, which could ultimately affect vigilance and due diligence in the areas not considered problematic.
Topic:
International Security, Cybersecurity, Geopolitics, and Satellite
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe

2. Estimating the vulnerability of industrial network infrastructure in Central and Eastern Europe

Author:
Mateusz Gzegorz Twardawa, Marek Smolik, Franciszek Rakowski, Jakub Kwiatkowski, and Norbert Meyer
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
Industrial infrastructure has suffered an unprecedented number of attacks in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). This situation can be attributed to many geopolitical factors, including hybrid military conflicts and criminal activity. Industrial networks belonging to the countries that were once under Soviet influence suffer from an elevated risk of cyberattacks. The goal of this work is to propose an easy way to estimate the vulnerabilities of industrial networks to cyber threats on a national level. Since analysis of the industrial vulnerability landscape is difficult, this study proposes an assessment based on the popularity of vulnerable technologies—VPc. This metric is composed of search volume data on keywords related to industrial network technologies and reported security vulnerabilities associated with these words. Data on 116 keywords was analysed and a country-specific VPc index was calculated for twenty states in CEE. The analysis of the popularity of industrial technologies and vendors in CEE reveals interesting information about the industrial security and vulnerability landscape. The results show that some countries (e.g. Estonia) have more resilient industrial infrastructure than others (e.g. Belarus). The results presented in this study are not in conflict with other data and estimation attempts, including the National Cyber Security Index (NCSI). As new vulnerabilities are noted every day, the industrial security landscape changes rapidly. Therefore, a new easy-to-use metric (VPc) can be successfully used for general estimations. This work shows that the VPc score agrees with other estimates and analyses, but as with any other general estimation tool, it must be used with caution.
Topic:
International Security, Infrastructure, Cybersecurity, Industry, Vulnerability, and Network Security
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe

3. Flood vulnerability of the critical infrastructure in Poland

Author:
Antoni Morawski
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The purpose of this article is to examine the significance of the flood hazard for the functioning of the critical infrastructure in Poland and to suggest adequate methods and strategies for reducing the vulnerability of critical infrastructure to flooding. The main research method used is institutional and legal analysis, which shows how critical infrastructure is protected in Poland. The context of climate change is taken into account, the consequences of which may trigger increased threat, and its significance is discussed. It is also shown that river floods of a pluvial character constitute the greatest hazard in Poland, as they pose a threat to urban areas where most critical infrastructure is located. The author lists methods which can be used to protect critical infrastructure from flooding. Examples of systems are also provided. A conclusion is formed that the approach to this problem should be comprehensive and make use of methods related to flood prevention, flood defence and flood mitigation, and above all, the relocation of elements of the critical infrastructure. It is evident that the best time to reduce the susceptibility of specific systems to floods is when they are developed or modernised by taking into account the flood risk. Lastly, the biggest problem of the critical infrastructure in Poland is highlighted, namely its identification once it is already built, which means its location had not been thought through.
Topic:
Security, Natural Disasters, Infrastructure, and Flood
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Poland

4. Analysis of strategic stakeholders in the Western Balkans

Author:
Michael Minev Dimitrov
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to generate a model of the interplay between the main actors in the Western Balkans region in order to try to highlight major switch-factors and pathways for future evolution of the system. The study was carried out using MACTOR software developed by Laboratoire d’Investigation en Prospective, Stratégie et Organisation and École Pour l’Informatique et les Techniques Avancées. This computer-assisted method creates a hierarchy of objectives based on the mobilisation rates and gives some insight into what is at stake and the interested parties. The paper calculates the competitiveness index of each actor included in the model and the weighted valued position matrix showing both valence and mobilisation rate of actor-objective pairs. Valued convergence and divergence matrices (with graphic representation) outline the structure of the region. The results obtained can be used to develop possible scenarios. The structure of the Western Balkans region is subordinated to a single major divergence which is translated to the internal actors. Insulator states are losing relative weight with a narrowing field of manoeuvres. Bosnia and Herzegovina has become a focal point of polarity with a distinct vulnerability to the future line of behaviour of the Croatian element in the country
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Armed Forces, and Stakeholders
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Balkans, Croatia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina

5. Assessments and foreign policy implications of the national security of the Republic of Serbia

Author:
Miroslav Mitrovic
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
National security determines the degree to which endangering national interests that sublimate national values is absent. With a review of the genesis and framework of the modern interpretation of national security, the paper discusses its approaches to endangerment. A retrospective of the ideas of endangerment in the paradigm of the changed physiognomy of contemporary conflicts and dynamic geopolitical movements creates the need for an innovative approach and prediction in national security strategic assessments. The paper provides an overview of the internal and external political aspects of national security and a framework for the actions of prominent entities according to the perceived foreign policy interests of importance for the Republic of Serbia’s security. By analysing common and conflicting interests of Serbia and forces that have geopolitical interests in the Western Balkans, it is possible to establish the most objective framework for predicting the trend of relationship development and the vector of influence. The paper analyses Serbia’s interactions with Russia, the United States, and the EU. The findings point to a complex situation regarding Serbia’s national security, where Russia seeks to maintain its strong soft power presence, the United States wants close cooperation and insistence on recognising Kosovo’s independence, and the EU does not vigorously stimulate or promote Serbia’s European integration. In that way, a concrete contribution is made to the developing of strategic assessments of possible trends of importance for the Republic of Serbia’s security, as well as to the achievement of declared national goals.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, National Security, European Union, Geopolitics, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Russia, Eastern Europe, Serbia, Balkans, and United States of America

6. Mechanisms for providing cybersecurity during the COVID-19 pandemic: Perspectives for Ukraine

Author:
Oleksandr Karpenko, Aleksander Kuczabski, and Vitalii Havryliak
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The article analyses key cybersecurity trends against the background of the COVID-19 pandemic, trends that could lead to an increase in cyber threats. It also looks at cyber threats related to remote work in this period. Foreign experience in counteracting the spread of disinformation online, about COVID-19, has been studied. A global trend for strengthening law enforcement control over cyberspace content, network traffic, and digital devices of users has been identified. It has been established that some states are finding it difficult to counteract the spread of coronavirus-related threats and are sometimes resorting to violating the traditional balance of rights and freedoms of citizens in cyberspace, in fact, legalising cyber-surveillance of citizens. The paper investigates the limits of state intervention in the lives of citizens in the face of a real threat to national security. In matters of cybersecurity in the medical sphere, a shift of emphasis from the problem of protection of personal data of patients to the protection of key functions of the medical sphere is revealed. Mechanisms for implementing cybersecurity to counter the spread of fake news (misinformation) on the internet, about COVID-19, are substantiated. Practical tools and cybersecurity measures used during the COVID-19 pandemic are recommended for Ukrainian authorities. The importance of creating appropriate conditions for ensuring the balance between the implementation of restrictive policies in the field of cybersecurity and ensuring freedom of speech and openness of the internet is proven.
Topic:
Cybersecurity, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Fake News
Political Geography:
Ukraine and Eastern Europe

7. Family as a fundamental social unit shaping security culture: Polish realities

Author:
Agnieszka Wioletta Filipek
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The overall goal of the paper is to address the phenomenon of security culture. The conducted research was focused on analysing the possibilities of influencing the shaping of security culture by looking at the role of family. The study is based on a review of theories and published research about security culture and family. The aim of the paper is to answer the following research questions: What is security culture, what elements make up its structure and what role does family play in shaping it? The research methods were based on the classical theoretical methods used in security sciences and included an analysis of literature and scientific articles with the use of synthesis, abstraction and generalisation. Security culture is a category that characterises every security entity. Its structure consists of both basic and detailed elements such as: values, norms, attitudes, actions, cooperation and activity, reasonable openness, wise trust and risk. Based on the literature research, it can be stated that the basic outline of security culture is shaped during childhood and school years. It is shaped mainly in the family and in educational institutions. The research shows that the high level and appropriate nature of security culture can have a positive impact on the security of subjects and their environment, while the unfavourable form of security culture will have the opposite effect. The conducted research reveals that the role of the family in shaping security culture among children is indisputable and very significant and it should not be overestimated.
Topic:
Security, Values, Family, Norms, and Attitudes
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Poland

8. Willingness to defend one’s country and to resist in the Baltic states

Author:
Māris Andžāns and Andris Spruds
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This article addresses the question of willingness to defend one’s own country and a similar notion of resistance, should Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia be attacked. The study principally relies on quantitative data from a dedicated nationally representative survey across all three countries. The data acquired thereof reaffirm findings from previous studies concluding that the highest level of willingness to defend one’s own country is in Estonia, while it is lower in Latvia and in Lithuania. Asked if and how respondents would resist in case of an attack, more willingness to resist either non-violently or violently was expressed by respondents in Lithuania, ahead of the number of willing to do so in Estonia and more so in Latvia. Demographic background of the respondents visualized and discussed in the article provides further nuances of both research questions. While situation with the willingness to defend Estonia is relatively comfortable, this should not be treated as a reason for complacency. There is still room for progress within some groups of the society. Meanwhile, valuable lessons could be drawn for policies of Latvia and more so of Lithuania to avert some of the less flattery trends identified in this study.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Resistance, and Collective Defense
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, and Baltic States

9. The role of social media in emergency management during the 2019 flood in Poland

Author:
Dorota Domalewska
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
Objectives: The aim of this article is to discuss the role of social media platforms, Facebook and Twitter, during the floods that took place in Poland in May 2019. The following research questions guided the study: (1) How is social media used by different actors at various stages of the disaster management cycle? (2) To what extent were social networking sites used during the 2019 floods in Poland? Methods: The study employed social media analytic tools to analyze social media data published on Facebook and Twitter qualitatively and quantitatively in the period from 1 March to 10 June 2019. Results: Social Media is used during emergencies by various actors for different purposes: emergency services use it to broadcast weather alerts and situational updates; authorities communicate weather alerts and offer assistance; mass media outlets share up-to-date information; individual users connect and share their experiences of the disaster as well as express political views; organizations spread general comments, situational updates and political comments. Conclusions: Despite several drawbacks, such as the chaotic spread of messages, their unreliability and the politicization of the news- feed, social networking sites support disaster management. Therefore, they should be incorporated as an additional communication channel during emergencies.
Topic:
Communications, Natural Disasters, Social Media, Crisis Management, Flood, and Emergencies
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Poland

10. Illegal immigration as a threat to the safety of the Republic of Poland

Author:
Andrzej Soboń and Marzena Piertuniak
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
Uncontrolled migration is one of the threats to the state, and as illegal immigration, it is a leading threat to international security. From the point of view of state security, illegal immigration is classified as “requiring caution.” In the case of Poland, illegal immigration is to a considerable extent handled by organised crime of transnational reach, effectively taking the form of criminal enterprises. In the present day, differentiating between migration and exile is intricate, because the reasons behind migration are unclear and depend on numerous factors, also related to migration policies in target countries. However, for criminal enterprises, which stop at nothing to maximise their business profits, both refugees seeking refuge and migrants seeking to improve their socio-economic situation are a source of substantial financial gain. Criminal organisations generate profit by committing various crimes. This article also looks at international and national institutions combating illegal migration as a threat to the security of the Republic of Poland and Europe.
Topic:
Borders, Human Trafficking, Public Safety, Illegal Immigration, and FRONTEX
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Poland