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21. 178th mBank-CASE Seminar Proceedings: Immigration and the Labour Market in Poland

Author:
Jan Bazyli Klakla and Maciej Duszczyk
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Over the last dozen years Poland became an immigration country. The 178th mBank-CASE Seminar proceedings is devoted to this process – from various perspectives. The data speak for themselves. Immigration provides significant support for the Polish labour market. Poland is facing a rapid population decline. According to projections by the Ministry of Finance in 2022, by 2030 the population of Poland could decrease from the current 37.75 million to 36.6 million, and by 2050 to 34.1 million. The percentage of people of working age will decrease, while the elderly population will increase. Immigration may provide a solution to this problem. In 2022, around 100,000 people from Belarus arrived in Poland, most of them actively participating in the labour market. In addition, there are 1.2 million Ukrainians who stayed in Poland after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It is therefore necessary to develop a long-term immigration, education and social policy to retain immigrants and integrate them into society and the labour market. This is what eminent experts who have been researching migration processes for years write about in the first two chapters of these Notebooks: Dr Maciej Duszczyk, as well as Dr Agata Górny and Dr Paweł Kaczmarczyk, from the Centre for Migration Research, operating within the University of Warsaw. The third chapter is devoted to the situation of female domestic workers.
Topic:
Immigration, Labor Market, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Poland

22. WEER 2023 | Ukraine at War: Why did it happen, when will it end? (Full Issue)

Author:
Henryk Litwin, Yevgeniya Gaber, Mykola Riabchuk, Ola Hnatiuk, and Aliaksei Kazharski
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
Institution:
Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
Abstract:
From June 28th to June 30th, 2023, the nineteenth Warsaw East European Conference “Ukraine at War” took place. It was attended by a diverse group of scholars from Belarus, Canada, Great Britain, Germany, Lithuania, Poland, the United Kingdom, Ukraine, the United States, Finland, and Estonia. The conference opened with an inaugural lecture titled “Why a Ukrainian Victory Matters?” delivered by Professor Marius Janukonis, Director of the Strategic Management and Analysis Department at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania. The closing presentation, titled “Russia’s War on Ukraine: Where Are We Now and What Next?”, was prepared by Professor Yevgeniya Gaber from Ukraine, representing the Atlantic Council in Turkey. The highlight of the conference was three round table discussions. On the first day, Professor David Sacko moderated a discussion on “Ukraine at War. Security in the Region.” On the second day, there was an exchange of views on “Rebuilding Ukraine. Key Challenges for the War and Post-War Period,” led by Dr. Ernest Wyciszkiewicz. Finally, on the closing day of WEEC, Professor Mykola Riabchuk chaired a round table titled “The Toxic Spell of ‘Imperial Knowledge’ and Challenges of Decolonization.” Throughout the event, there were 13 panel discussions during which 41 papers were presented. The titles of the panels reflect the breadth of thematic discussions during the conference, listed in the order they occurred: 1. Around Ukraine. Post-Soviet Space Before and During the War 2. Challenges and Diagnoses of the Future 3. Consequences of the War 4. Public Diplomacy 5. Russia towards the War 6. Ukraine – Sources of Resistance 7. Ukraine and Security Problems in the Continental Dimension 8. Ukraine in the Eyes of Russia. Ukraine in the Eyes of Europe 9. War Migrants 10. Belarusian Memory Policy. Report on “European Network for Belarus” project 11. Migration from Post-Soviet countries in Poland: trends, challenges, and prospects 12. War Narratives in the Media. Unfortunately, only a portion of the conference participants submitted their article texts to the organizers based on their presentations. Therefore, only partial materials from WEEC 2023 are published here. Readers will find the concluding lecture by Prof. Yevgeniya Gaber and a report on the round table discussions “The Toxic Spell of ‘Imperial Knowledge’ and Challenges of Decolonization,” comprising texts from the participants, containing the main theses of their presentations. Additionally, 10 articles from panel participants are included. While this compilation may not provide a comprehensive account of the conference, it serves as evidence of its thematic diversity and provides a glimpse into this significant event for Eastern European studies.
Topic:
History, Geopolitics, Colonialism, Ideology, Decolonization, Totalitarianism, Vladimir Putin, Armed Conflict, Identity, Soviet Union, Public Diplomacy, Forced Migration, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and Eastern Europe

23. Northern Kosovo: Asserting Sovereignty amid Divided Loyalties

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Tensions are rising in Kosovo’s restive Serb-majority north, as Pristina enforces its writ against the backdrop of continuing disputes with Belgrade. The parties and outside supporters should first work on defusing the short-term risk of violence and then look for ways to foster lasting stability.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Political stability, Domestic Politics, and Violence
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Kosovo

24. Ukraine: How to Hold the Line

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The gruelling war in Ukraine continues, with Russian forces creeping forward amid fierce fighting. To stop Russia’s immediate momentum and withstand its assault, Kyiv and its backers will need to move quickly to fix problems that have hindered the Ukrainian effort to date.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Armed Conflict, Military Aid, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

25. A Fraught Path Forward for Ukraine’s Liberated Territories

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Even as Ukraine continues to resist Russia’s onslaught, it faces the challenge of reintegrating lands its army freed from Russian occupation in 2022. With aid from donors, there is much Kyiv can do to help make these areas peaceful and productive once more.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, Occupation, Donors, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

26. Aircraft vulnerability to politically motivated Radio Frequency Interference (RFI) in Eastern Europe

Author:
Tegg Westbrook
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
Countries in Europe have experienced radio frequency interference from Russian electronic warfare units, affecting navigation systems without discrimination. Interference has been identified as coming from the Russian mainland, Kaliningrad, and in the areas where it is engaged in conflicts abroad, creating serious hazards for aircraft. Previous research has identified the technical vulnerabilities to aviation from radio frequency interference, but it has yet to be contextualised in light of the ongoing geopolitical tensions. Using literature review analysis, the aim of the article is to place the jamming and spoofing threat in the context of ongoing political tensions between Russia and the region and to establish worse-case scenarios based on the former’s motives. Focusing on the threats to aircraft, it finds that the likely motivations are to (1) complement political narratives of Western aggression; (2) to deny service for intimidation, harassment, economic loss, and to portray a dominant Russian cyber influence; and (3) to use spoofing to enable hostage diplomacy via the seizure of people and assets. It argues that reporting mechanisms for aviation risks assumes geographical staticism, which does not correspond adequately to the threat. It also creates arbitrary “predictability” in otherwise unpredictable environments, which could ultimately affect vigilance and due diligence in the areas not considered problematic.
Topic:
International Security, Cybersecurity, Geopolitics, and Satellite
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe

27. Estimating the vulnerability of industrial network infrastructure in Central and Eastern Europe

Author:
Mateusz Gzegorz Twardawa, Marek Smolik, Franciszek Rakowski, Jakub Kwiatkowski, and Norbert Meyer
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
Industrial infrastructure has suffered an unprecedented number of attacks in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). This situation can be attributed to many geopolitical factors, including hybrid military conflicts and criminal activity. Industrial networks belonging to the countries that were once under Soviet influence suffer from an elevated risk of cyberattacks. The goal of this work is to propose an easy way to estimate the vulnerabilities of industrial networks to cyber threats on a national level. Since analysis of the industrial vulnerability landscape is difficult, this study proposes an assessment based on the popularity of vulnerable technologies—VPc. This metric is composed of search volume data on keywords related to industrial network technologies and reported security vulnerabilities associated with these words. Data on 116 keywords was analysed and a country-specific VPc index was calculated for twenty states in CEE. The analysis of the popularity of industrial technologies and vendors in CEE reveals interesting information about the industrial security and vulnerability landscape. The results show that some countries (e.g. Estonia) have more resilient industrial infrastructure than others (e.g. Belarus). The results presented in this study are not in conflict with other data and estimation attempts, including the National Cyber Security Index (NCSI). As new vulnerabilities are noted every day, the industrial security landscape changes rapidly. Therefore, a new easy-to-use metric (VPc) can be successfully used for general estimations. This work shows that the VPc score agrees with other estimates and analyses, but as with any other general estimation tool, it must be used with caution.
Topic:
International Security, Infrastructure, Cybersecurity, Industry, Vulnerability, and Network Security
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe

28. Scramble for Green Technologies: Strategies of Major Players and Serbia’s Opportunities

Author:
Mikhail Korostikov
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
The struggle between the EU, the US and China for dominance in new technological niche markets has the potential to become the most important story of the next two to three decades, potentially overshadowing any ongoing military conflicts in the world. It is taking place on several fronts at once: artificial intelligence, new principles of industrial production (such as the use of robots or additive technologies), space exploration, and much more. This report explores the political and economic confrontation between the three sides regarding the green technology industry and draws certain conclusions regarding the implications of this confrontation for Serbia. The role of Serbia’s reserves of lithium and other minerals important for the latest high-tech industries could affect the country’s standing in the world in general, and its importance to the EU in particular. However, it is critical to ensure that Serbia maximises the opportunities associated with the exploitation of lithium and concentrates the maximum number of links in the value chain associated with the extraction, processing and utilisation of the valuable resource. It is equally important that the lithium mining process be carried out in accordance with the best environmental standards and, first and foremost, with the support of the environmental authorities of the European Union, potentially being the final beneficiaries of the project.
Topic:
Markets, European Union, Green Technology, Mining, Lithium, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
China, Eastern Europe, Serbia, and United States of America

29. Being European (free, modern and independent): a view from Central and Eastern Europe

Author:
Nathalie de Kaniv
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The philosophy and culture of the Enlightenment shaped the mental map of Europe, drawing a distinction between civilization and barbarism. The latter is now rising again, and contemporary geopolitics, turned upside down by the Russian war and the scale of aggression in the Middle East, is bringing the clash of civilizations back into focus. The war against the West, the anti-Western narrative, the confrontation between the free world and authoritarian regimes nostalgic for distant empires, the desire to create grey zones, barriers to the spread of values that are uncomfortable, even threatening, for hostile centralized systems, are challenging Europe. Authoritarianism, the aspiration to infinite power, corruption rooted in state governance, the use of repression against all opposition, the manipulation of international law and interference go hand in hand with militaristic slogans that promote the erasure of certain states from the world map, and illustrate the mutation of systems towards new forms of power. Clinging to undivided power, the designation of a common enemy fosters the attraction of war and murder. So, what is this West that some say they are fighting or want to do away with? What choices have those who fervently resist this threat made? What does it mean to be European, which has become a "raison d'être" in countries threatened by the Kremlin? Now is the time to take a closer look at the contribution of these states resisting the threat to our perception of what it means to be European. What does it mean to be European in Central and Eastern Europe[1], which has remained European despite the Iron Curtain? Far from seeking an exhaustive answer to this complex question, our aim is to examine some of the notions that permeate the European idea in Central and Eastern Europe.
Topic:
European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, and Citizenship
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe

30. Serbia’s Newly-Signed Extradition Agreement with China: U-turn on Human Rights? – Ana Krstinovska

Author:
Ana Krstinovska
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
In May 2024, during President Xi Jinping’s visit to Serbia, President Aleksandar Vučić signed 28 agreements with China, including a controversial extradition treaty. This treaty raises concerns about potential human rights violations, particularly for Chinese dissidents, as it follows the European Court of Human Rights’ precedent in Liu vs. Poland, which cited risks of ill-treatment in the Chinese prison system. The agreement highlights Serbia’s strategic alignment with China, emphasizing mutual legal cooperation and Chinese investments, despite past human rights scandals involving Chinese companies in Serbia. This development challenges Serbia’s commitments to the European Convention on Human Rights and complicates its EU accession prospects. In May 2024, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Serbia, France, and Hungary to advance Chinese interests in Europe. Serbia, under President Aleksandar Vučić, signed 28 agreements with China, including a contentious extradition treaty. This extradition agreement potentially undermines human rights protections in Serbia, echoing concerns raised by the European Court of Human Rights in the Liu vs. Poland case regarding risks of ill-treatment in Chinese prisons. The treaty may facilitate the extradition of Chinese dissidents and political refugees, aligning with Beijing’s efforts to control overseas Chinese populations through legal and police cooperation. Serbia has strengthened its partnership with China, evidenced by joint police patrols and surveillance initiatives, and has become a significant hub for the Chinese diaspora in the Balkans. Past human rights issues in Serbia, involving Chinese companies’ labor practices, highlight a pattern of overlooking abuses to maintain strong bilateral relations. China’s support for Serbia on key international issues, such as the status of Kosovo, underpins this strategic alliance. Serbia’s deepening ties with China pose a challenge to its EU accession aspirations, requiring a balance between its obligations under the European Convention on Human Rights and its commitment to China’s vision of state-centric human rights.
Topic:
Human Rights, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Extradition
Political Geography:
China, Eastern Europe, and Serbia