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232. Balkan and Eastern European Comparisons: Building a New Momentum for the European integration of the Balkan and Eastern European associated states
- Author:
- Michael Emerson and Steven Blockmans
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- CEPS first published in 2018 a comparison of how the Balkan and Eastern European associated states fared in their progressive alignment on EU laws and norms. This attracted considerable attention, notably because the detailed research showed that the two groups of states were becoming increasingly comparable in their alignment on the EU acquis. A more recent suggestion that this work should be updated and deepened for its policy implications has led to this study. Andrius Kubilius MEP, former Prime Minister of Lithuania, in particular encouraged CEPS to do this, and the authors thank him for his stimulus and support. Considerable interest is now being expressed in this study advocating a new momentum for the European integration of both Balkan and East European associated states. Both the enlargement and neighbourhood policies are at best stagnating. The perceived incentives for reforms in line with European norms and values are too weak or uncertain. The study proposes enhancing the ‘more for more’ principle with quantification and benchmarking of ratings for all chapters of the relationships with the EU. A major proposed innovation is that in addition to ongoing sectoral and functional integration, the EU should officer partial and progressive institutional integration, conditional on performance in relation to the ratings, as a more constructive approach than the present ‘all or nothing’ method of accession.
- Topic:
- Law, European Union, Regional Integration, and Norms
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, and Balkans
233. Security Review: Russia-Ukraine Confrontation
- Author:
- Giorgio Bilanishvili, Zurab Batiashvili, Nika Petriashvili, and Giorgi Surmava
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- After the occupation and annexation of Crimea in 2014, the epicenter of hostilities shifted to eastern Ukraine, specifically to the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The Russian-speaking population was not loyal to Kyiv even before that but the events in Crimea and the Russian assistance invigorated the local separatists who, along with adventurers backed by the regular Russian troops, managed to gain control over parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The fighting turned out to be quite bloody and long lasting. There were large casualties on both sides, including civilians. Coupled with a high-profile incident of the downing of a passenger plane, it caused a wide international reverberation and world interest in resolving the conflict. The efforts of the leading OSCE countries had led to a certain agreement and the cessation of intense hostilities by September 2014. A quadripartite agreement (Germany, France, Russia, Ukraine) was achieved on the separation of the parties and a ceasefire. The line of contact was divided into sectors and precincts where a group of OSCE military observers began to monitor the “silence” regime. Since then, the intensity and scale of the hostilities have been significantly reduced. However, every now and then the situation would worsen which was followed by a new agreement on a ceasefire and the establishment of a “silence” regime. It should be noted that since March 2021, the number of incidents has increased dramatically. At the same time, regular Russian troops began to gather along Ukraine's eastern borders and Crimea.
- Topic:
- International Relations, National Security, Military Affairs, Conflict, Separatism, and Annexation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Crimea
234. Energising EU enlargement? The prospects of the Green Agenda for the Western Balkans
- Author:
- Wouter Zweers, Giulia Cretti, and Kristina Naunova
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- With the Green Agenda for the Western Balkans, the 2050 climate neutrality goal of the European Union has been extended to the six countries in South-Eastern Europe that aspire to join the Union. The Green Agenda is a promising tool for fostering climate and energy policy measures in the Western Balkans, a region with high vulnerability to climate change risks and little energy diversification away from coal. But could the Green Agenda also be a catalyst for renewed interest and enhanced political engagement, leading to a much-needed impetus to the EU enlargement process? This policy brief asks how the Green Agenda can work in the interest of both the objective of a climate neutral continent and the EU accession of the Western Balkan countries.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, European Union, and Diversification
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, and Balkans
235. Stepping up the greenification Policy Brief of the power sector in the Western Balkans
- Author:
- Luuk Molthof, Giulia Cretti, and Aleksandar Macura
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- This Clingendael series ‘The Green Agenda for the Western Balkans’ provides an inside perspective on the EU climate ambitions for the Western Balkan Six (Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Kosovo*, North Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia) and the challenges ahead. In this second contribution, we analyse the state of affairs with regard to energy diversification and greenification. The energy sector in most Western Balkan countries is characterised by a heavy dependency on coal and outdated production facilities, posing severe environmental challenges to the region. Possessing significant renewable energy potential, the Western Balkan Six (WB6) in theory have good prospects of making a successful energy transition. In terms of natural resources, the region is also well placed as Albania and Serbia possess solid reserves of metals and rare earths that are needed to develop energy transition technologies, such as batteries, smart grids, solar panels and windmills. Yet the transition is hampered by several economic and political factors, such as a highly centralised energy market with only a few large suppliers, dynamics of clientelism and controversial outside investment (such as from China). This policy brief analyses the current challenges that prevent energy diversification and greenification in the region and asks how the recently launched EU Green Agenda for the Western Balkans can address these challenges.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Balkans
236. The Green Agenda: Providing Policy Brief breathing space for Western Balkans citizens?
- Author:
- Paul Hofhuis, Wouter Zweers, Giulia Cretti, and Srdja Popovic
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- This Clingendael series ‘The Green Agenda for the Western Balkans’ provides an inside perspective on the EU climate ambitions for the Western Balkan Six (Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Kosovo*, North Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia) and the challenges ahead. In this third contribution, we analyse the state of affairs with regard to pollution. Across the Western Balkans, air, water and soil pollution levels are incredibly high. Public health is continuously jeopardised by air pollution arising from local heating sources and energy production plants. The Green Agenda for the Western Balkans aims to assist the region in tackling pollution problems and aligning the countries’ environmental quality regulation with the European acquis. This paper analyses the state of affairs with regard to air, water and soil pollution in the WB6 and examines how it affects citizens’ health and socioeconomic prospects. The policy brief argues that countries in the Western Balkans need to address a coal phase-out while simultaneously tackling energy poverty. The EU could more actively support this, not only by providing a platform for dialogue, but through supporting programmes for renewable energy provisions and infrastructure, reskilling of workers and job creation. The Sofia Declaration, that sets out the Green Agenda, needs to be complemented with measures to ensure compliance with environmental regulations, preferably by involving civil society organisations in monitoring implementation and raising public awareness of the socioeconomic costs of pollution.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, European Union, Pollution, and Public Health
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Herzegovina, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, Balkans, Albania, Montenegro, and North Macedonia
237. Turkish-Russian Relations: A Puzzle that Shakes the Middle East
- Author:
- Remi Daniel
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In this issue of Turkeyscope, Remi Daniel discusses several contemporary trends in the Russian-Turkish relationship. The dynamics of competition and cooperation between these two states affect the Middle East, Eastern Europe, Central Asia and North Africa in profound ways.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Central Asia, Turkey, Middle East, Eastern Europe, and North Africa
238. Assessments and foreign policy implications of the national security of the Republic of Serbia
- Author:
- Miroslav Mitrovic
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Security and Defence Quarterly
- Institution:
- War Studies University
- Abstract:
- National security determines the degree to which endangering national interests that sublimate national values is absent. With a review of the genesis and framework of the modern interpretation of national security, the paper discusses its approaches to endangerment. A retrospective of the ideas of endangerment in the paradigm of the changed physiognomy of contemporary conflicts and dynamic geopolitical movements creates the need for an innovative approach and prediction in national security strategic assessments. The paper provides an overview of the internal and external political aspects of national security and a framework for the actions of prominent entities according to the perceived foreign policy interests of importance for the Republic of Serbia’s security. By analysing common and conflicting interests of Serbia and forces that have geopolitical interests in the Western Balkans, it is possible to establish the most objective framework for predicting the trend of relationship development and the vector of influence. The paper analyses Serbia’s interactions with Russia, the United States, and the EU. The findings point to a complex situation regarding Serbia’s national security, where Russia seeks to maintain its strong soft power presence, the United States wants close cooperation and insistence on recognising Kosovo’s independence, and the EU does not vigorously stimulate or promote Serbia’s European integration. In that way, a concrete contribution is made to the developing of strategic assessments of possible trends of importance for the Republic of Serbia’s security, as well as to the achievement of declared national goals.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, National Security, European Union, Geopolitics, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eastern Europe, Serbia, Balkans, and United States of America
239. Mechanisms for providing cybersecurity during the COVID-19 pandemic: Perspectives for Ukraine
- Author:
- Oleksandr Karpenko, Aleksander Kuczabski, and Vitalii Havryliak
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Security and Defence Quarterly
- Institution:
- War Studies University
- Abstract:
- The article analyses key cybersecurity trends against the background of the COVID-19 pandemic, trends that could lead to an increase in cyber threats. It also looks at cyber threats related to remote work in this period. Foreign experience in counteracting the spread of disinformation online, about COVID-19, has been studied. A global trend for strengthening law enforcement control over cyberspace content, network traffic, and digital devices of users has been identified. It has been established that some states are finding it difficult to counteract the spread of coronavirus-related threats and are sometimes resorting to violating the traditional balance of rights and freedoms of citizens in cyberspace, in fact, legalising cyber-surveillance of citizens. The paper investigates the limits of state intervention in the lives of citizens in the face of a real threat to national security. In matters of cybersecurity in the medical sphere, a shift of emphasis from the problem of protection of personal data of patients to the protection of key functions of the medical sphere is revealed. Mechanisms for implementing cybersecurity to counter the spread of fake news (misinformation) on the internet, about COVID-19, are substantiated. Practical tools and cybersecurity measures used during the COVID-19 pandemic are recommended for Ukrainian authorities. The importance of creating appropriate conditions for ensuring the balance between the implementation of restrictive policies in the field of cybersecurity and ensuring freedom of speech and openness of the internet is proven.
- Topic:
- Cybersecurity, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Fake News
- Political Geography:
- Ukraine and Eastern Europe
240. Lawfare as part of hybrid wars: The experience of Ukraine in conflict with Russian Federation
- Author:
- Zakhar Tropin
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- War Studies University
- Abstract:
- The main objective of the article is to prove the need for the state to have a centralised legal strategy to ensure the protection of state interests on an international level during a hybrid conflict. Centralisation of control and the planning and implementation of legal actions on an international level are core elements of such a strategy, especially for actions under the jurisdiction of international institutions. This article provides an analysis of treaties and of the practice of adjudication in Ukraine during the conflict with the Russian Federation. The findings of the study show that the legal dimension of hybrid conflict has some sub-levels: legal actions of states in hybrid conflicts taken at interstate level; the level of enterprises controlled by the state; and the private level. The practice of Ukraine shows that the exercising of a multilevel legal encounter during a hybrid war faces a number of problems including the intersection of actions (sometimes even direct conflict), even among authorities involved in the legal protection of state interests; and problems with collecting and analysing the information necessary to protect state interests in the legal dimension; state authorities that are not directly involved in a legal encounter may exercise actions which will complicate the legal position of the state. One of the first steps taken by the state in a hybrid conflict is, therefore, to create special authority or entrust an existing one with the coordination of the functions of lawfare. The next step of such an authority is the strategic “programming” of the opponent’s legal actions with the aim of achieving an advantage in the legal dimension of a hybrid conflict.
- Topic:
- Conflict, Hybrid Warfare, and Lawfare
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe