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51. Russia's Image of China and Russian-Chinese Relations

Author:
Alexander Lukin
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Discussion and debate about Russian-Chinese relations is on the rise and attracts the attention of experts and policy-makers around the world. From the Russian perspective, the importance of developing relations with its neighbor is determined by several considerations: shared interests and concerns about the international situation, the need to secure a peaceful international environment for economic development, worries about the future of the Russian Far East, and advantages from trade and economic cooperation with the fastest growing Asian economy. Russian approaches to China differ among various groups, political trends and individual experts; moreover, they exist not in vacuum, but within the framework of more general perceptions of the international situation and Russia's position therein. Based on these perceptions, it can be expected that Russia will develop closer relations with China for the foreseeable future. However, since the official Russian attitude toward China strongly depends on Russia's relations with the West, especially with the United States, US policy towards Russia and China will significantly influence the future Russian-Chinese partnership.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Europe, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

52. The United States, Japan, and China: Setting the Course

Author:
Neil E. Silver
Publication Date:
04-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The political dynamics of China-Japan relations have changed in reaction to three events: the demise of bipolar world politics, China's ''rise,'' and Japan's unexpected economic stall. These changed political dynamics have brought important challenges and consequences for the United States.
Topic:
International Relations and Security
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

53. Adjusting America's Two Alliances in East Asia: A Japanese View

Author:
Takashi Inoguchi
Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
The alliances of the United States in East Asia are in a process of profound change (Okimoto 1998). The treaties with Japan and Korea are undergoing distinctive metamorphoses. These changes are the result of a number of forces that unfolded over the decades of the twentieth century, most notably the Cold War, globalization, and democratization (Inoguchi 1993, 1995; and Archibugi, Held, and Koehler 1996).
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States, America, East Asia, and Asia

54. U.S. Policy Toward North Korea: A Second Look

Author:
Michael J. Green, James T. Laney, and Morton I. Abramowitz
Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
In May, former Secretary of Defense William Perry traveled to North Korea with a comprehensive proposal to increase outside assistance for its isolated and declining Stalinist regime in exchange for steps by the North to reduce its threatening military posture. The Perry proposal was designed to test North Korea's intentions not only to abide by the 1994 Agreed Framework, which aimed to cap Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions, but also to stop further missile tests and military provocations. It is unlikely that North Korea will respond positively. The regime has survived for five decades only by maintaining a belligerent stance. Pyongyang has rebuffed South Korean President Kim Dae Jung's unprecedented efforts to improve North-South relations and has continued to produce military tensions, even in the wake of the Perry visit. But it is too soon to give up on a comprehensive package to reduce tensions with North Korea. Despite the illusion of self-sufficiency, or juche, the North is increasingly dependent on outside help to sustain itself. It is possible that over time Pyongyang will find no alternative to greater interaction with the outside world. Barring an increase in threatening North Korean actions, the United States should keep the Perry proposal on the table and continue to support Kim Dae Jung's policy of engagement. A second Taepodong missile test by North Korea would not violate any existing North Korean commitments, but it would significantly change the situation in Northeast Asia. We should make every effort to deter a launch, but if one takes place, the United States, Japan, and South Korea will have to examine ways to enhance defense against a different North Korean threat. South Korea should suspend new investment in North Korea and Japan should impose new sanctions and consider restrictions on financial transfers to the North. The United States should lower its diplomatic activity toward Pyongyang, keeping channels open, but forcing North Korea to provide incentives for greater dialogue. A missile launch should not end our attempts at diplomacy or cause us to forget that North Korea's relative military capabilities are in decline, but if a test is conducted business cannot continue as usual. Although a North Korean missile launch would do great damage to political support for the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO) in the United States, Japan, and South Korea, it should not be a reason for us to abandon our commitments under the Agreed Framework. The Agreed Framework stands as the major bulwark against a return to the kind of calamitous military steps the United States was forced to consider in 1994 to stop North Korea's nuclear program. Inspections of suspicious underground facilities at Kumchangri in May revealed no North Korean violation of the Agreed Framework. Although we cannot assume from this that Pyongyang has forsaken its nuclear ambitions, we do know that implementation of the Agreed Framework remains the best approach to preventing nuclear weapons development in the North. In the end, there is no easy solution to the intractable North Korean problem. Efforts to reduce tensions and build North-South reconciliation have yielded little. We are strong enough to test inducements for change in the North, but our policy must be based on robust deterrence and close defense cooperation with our allies.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, East Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Korean Peninsula

55. Transcript: North Korea Task Force

Author:
James Laney and Michael J. Green
Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Good morning. Thank you for coming. I'm Michael Green, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations here in Washington, and the director of this independent task force on Korea policy, which is sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations. We are here today to release and explain our recent study on policy towards North Korea. This is, in many ways, the culmination of a two-year effort by the Council.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, East Asia, North Korea, and Korea

56. Building an Asia-Pacific Security Community: The Role of Nuclear Weapons

Author:
C. Richard Nelson, James E. Goodby, Tomohisha Sakanaka, W. Neal Anderson, Tomohide Murai, and Shinichi Ogawa
Publication Date:
05-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The main challenge for Asia is to build a security community that transforms a legacy of military competition into security cooperation. This transformation will be difficult because of the high level of distrust among the states and considerable uncertainty about future relations. Asia lacks the kinds of developed, institutionalized multilateral security arrangements that contribute to transparency, confidence-building and long-term stability. Furthermore, a “ business as usual ” approach that focuses on managing bilateral relationships is unlikely to result in a security community. More attention needs to be devoted to multilateral security efforts. Without the reassurance of a network of cooperative arrangements, including verifiable arms limitations, potential adversaries may place their hopes in achieving unilateral military advantages. Such efforts could foster fears of regional domination and, in turn, a potential arms race that includes nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.
Topic:
Security and NATO
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

57. Benefits and Burdens: The Politically Dominated Economics of U.S. Alliances with Japan and Korea

Author:
Charles Wolf and Michele Zanini
Publication Date:
04-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Alliances are organizations between or among independent entities that concert to produce “collective goods” for the mutual benefit of alliance members. The statement applies whether the alliances are between or among countries, corporations, universities, research centers, or other institutions. Of course, the nature of the collective goods, as well as the membership in the collectivity, differs across these cases. That the goods (or benefits) are “collective” means that their availability to one alliance member (or their production by any member) implies their availability to the other members of the alliance.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Israel, East Asia, and Korea

58. The Costs and Benefits of Korean Unification

Author:
Marcus Noland, Sherman Robinson, and Li-gang Liu
Publication Date:
03-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Existing estimates of the costs of unification are inadequate for a number of reasons. In this paper we use a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to calculate South Korean and total peninsular income streams under a variety of unification (and non–unification) scenarios. We find that there are scenarios in which the present discounted value of South Korean income is higher with unification than without it. Although lower income groups in South Korea experience reduced incomes under this scenario, with redistribution of the gains, everyone can be made better off. Indeed, this scenario, which involves relatively low levels of South Korean private investment in the North together with relatively high levels of North–South migration, is also the one which generates the highest level of total peninsular income as well. The latter point is critical in that it suggests that there is no necessary conflict between the economic interests of North and South Koreans after unification.
Topic:
Security, Economics, International Organization, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Israel, East Asia, and Korea

59. Integration on the Basis of Strength: China's Impact on East Asian Security

Author:
Wu Xinbo
Publication Date:
02-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
China is perhaps the most important variable in East Asian security, not only because of its growing power but also because of the great uncertainty over its future. Therefore, to assess China's impact on regional security, one question should be tackled first: what will China look like in the future? There are three different schools of thought concerning China's future: the “implosion" school holds that China, unable to cope with a wide array of social, economic, and political challenges created by its rapid economic growth, will follow in the footsteps of the former Soviet Union and “implode" the “expansion" school argues that as China gradually builds up its material strength, Beijing will wield its weight and seek to establish hegemony in the region; and the “integration" school believes that as China's economy further merges with the world economy, Beijing's internal and external behaviors will slowly but inevitably conform to international norms, and China will become a more responsible and more cooperative member of the world community.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
China, Israel, Beijing, East Asia, Asia, and Soviet Union

60. Energy and Security in East Asia

Author:
Michael May
Publication Date:
01-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
This study examines the likely security consequences of the continued growth in energy consumption in East Asia, and in particular: The dimensions of that growth which are likely to have an effect on international security. The dependencies and insecurities created by that continued growth. The policy guidance that can be derived for the United States from a review of those dependencies and insecurities.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Energy Policy, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Israel and East Asia