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261. Can America Rebuild the Crumbling State of U.S.-Asia Relations?

Author:
Kishore Mahbubani
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
Ambassador Mahbubani's address looked at previous American actions that built "reservoirs of good will" that ultimately assisted America in its ideological victory in the Cold War, especially in Asia: its sharing of the "American dream" with the world; its openness to foreign students; the international order built by the United States after 1945; and, finally, the stabilizing effects of its military presence in East Asia. However, the end of the Cold War has brought changes, and the gulf between America's self-perception and the way it is seen in the Islamic world, and China in particular, demonstrate the dwindling of those good will reservoirs.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, China, America, and East Asia

262. Small Enterprises and Economic Policy

Author:
Simon Johnson and Anders Åslund
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Institutions such as strong property rights and the rule of law are important for both long-run economic performance and short-run volatility. Developing good institutions is generally viewed as a desirable goal, but there is no agreed road map for such changes.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
Israel, Eastern Europe, East Asia, and Latin America

263. The United States, China, and the Rise of Asian Regionalism

Author:
Claude E. Barfield
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
The goal of this paper is to analyze the evolution of trade relations between the United States and China, against the background of rising East Asian regionalism. It will also put forward policy options for the United States and China in response to the changing economic realities in East Asia.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, and East Asia

264. State Development Planning: Did it Create an East Asian Miracle?

Author:
Benjamen Powell
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Independent Institute
Abstract:
East Asian countries have recorded large increases in per capita GDP over the last fifty years. Some observers have referred to this growth as an “East Asian Miracle.” One popular explanation attributes the rapid growth to state led industrial development planning. This paper critically assesses the arguments surrounding state development planning and East Asia's growth. Whether the state can acquire the knowledge necessary to calculate which industries it should promote and how state development planning can deal with political incentive problems faced by planners are both examined. When we look at the development record of East Asian countries we find that to the extent development planning did exist, it could not calculate which industries would promote development, so it instead promoted industrialization. We also find that what rapid growth in living standards did occur can be better explained by free markets than state planning because, as measured in economic freedom indexes, these countries were some of the most free market in the world.
Topic:
Development, Industrial Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Israel and East Asia

265. The case for regional exchange rate arrangement in East Asia'

Author:
Takuji Kinkyo
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
The Asian crisis highlighted the difficulties for developing countries to actively manage exchange rates in an environment of high capital mobility. Now it became fashionable to argue that the exchange rate should be either allowed to float freely or irrevocably fixed. This paper examines the case for regional exchange rate arrangements as an instrument to enhance the manageability of exchange rates and discusses the options in East Asia. It critically assess the existing proposal of common basket peg system and suggests that East Asia should seek to create an Asian-version of regional monetary system modeled on the EMS.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
East Asia and Asia

266. Taiwan Strait IV: How an Ultimate Political Settlement Might Look

Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Each side's most preferred solution for resolving the continuing Taiwan Strait issue – in the case of Taipei, widely recognised de jure independence; and in the case of Beijing, reunification of China on the same 'one country, two systems' basis as Hong Kong – are both non-starters. Neither society is likely to accommodate the other or change to the degree necessary to make either option realistically achievable, even ten or fifteen years down the road. If the risk of conflict across the Taiwan Strait – too serious to be accepted with equanimity, as the tensions of the last few months have shown – is to be reduced, then there has to be new thinking about what an ultimate political settlement might look like, and how to get there.
Topic:
Government, Politics, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
China, Israel, Taiwan, Beijing, East Asia, and Hong Kong

267. Transpacific trade imbalances: causes and cures

Author:
Warwick McKibbin, Park Yung Chul, and Jong-Wha Lee
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
This paper explores the causes of the transpacific trade imbalances using an empirical global model. It also evaluates the impact of various policies to reduce these imbalances. We find the fundamental cause of trade imbalances since 1997 is changes in saving-investment gaps, attributed to the surge of the U.S fiscal deficits and the decline of East Asia's private investment after the 1997 financial crisis. Our simulation results show that a revaluation of East Asia's exchange rates by 10 percent (effectively a shift in monetary policy) cannot resolve the imbalances. We find East Asia's concerted efforts to stimulate aggregate demand can have significant impacts on trade balances globally, but the impact on the US trade balance is not large. US fiscal contraction is estimated to have large impacts on the US trade position overall and on the bilateral trade balances with East Asian economies. These results suggest that in order to improve the transpacific imbalance, macroeconomic adjustment will need to be made on both sides of the Pacific. lowy institute for international policy.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Israel and East Asia

268. India: the Next Economic Giant

Author:
Mark P Thirlwell
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The Indian economy is showing clear signs of realising its dormant potential. The impact of more than a decade of economic reforms, instigated by a 1991 balance of payments crisis, has now removed or at least mitigated some of the major economic distortions that have handicapped past economic performance. One important result has been a significant boost to the economy's overall potential growth rate. Another has been India's re-engagement with the global economy, which in turn has transformed the prospects of key sectors of the Indian economy. This transformation has been most visible in the case of information technology-related services exports, where India has already become an important global player. But there are also positive signs in the areas of merchandise trade and international capital flows. These trends will have important consequences for the international economy as a whole and for Australia in particular.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and Globalization
Political Geography:
India, East Asia, Asia, and Australia

269. Election Watch: Japan — Japan's party system: shifting the political axis, releasing economic reform

Author:
Malcolm Cook
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Changes in Japan's party system offer new hope for Japan's long-delayed economic reform as the axis of voting power accelerated its shift to the urban areas. The upcoming Upper House1 elections will provide another opportunity to see how far these changes have come and how permanent they are. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has dominated post-war Japanese politics due to the party's overwhelming support in Japan's declining rural areas. The LDP's iron grip on the rural vote has created and been maintained by a nexus of interests between LDP politicians, favoured construction companies and rural voters. This rural public works "glue" has been one of the main reasons the Japanese government has been unable to address its drastically declining fiscal position. The political power of Japan's small farming sector also explains why Japan's bilateral and multilateral free trade diplomacy has not progressed. The November 9 Lower House election results and the rise of a real alternative to the LDP promise to help Prime Minister Koizumi's three-year fight to "modernise" the LDP and make it more appealing to urban and younger voters. November 9's results also suggest that if Koizumi loses this intra-LDP battle, then in the next Lower House elections the LDP will lose. So whether Koizumi is successful or not, economic reform chances in Japan have been boosted. Australia's largest trading partner is better placed for free trade talks bilaterally and globally and to address its worrying fiscal situation, the largest threat looming over Japan's future prosperity.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Japan, Israel, East Asia, and Australia

270. What Went Right in Japan

Author:
Adam S. Posen
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Japan's recovery is strong. Real GDP growth will exceed 4 percent this year and likely be 3 percent or higher in 2005 and perhaps even 2006. The Japanese economy has been growing solidly for the last five quarters (average real 3.2 percent annualized rate), and the pace is sustainable, given Japan's underlying potential growth rate (which has risen to 2 to 2.5 percent per year) and the combination of catch-up growth closing the current output gap and some reforms that will raise the growth rate for quarters to come (though not permanently). Indicators of domestic demand beyond capital investment are increasingly positive, including housing starts bottoming out, inventories drawing down, and diminished deflation. Moreover, on the external side, while China was the main source of export growth in 2003, the composition of exports has become more balanced this year and is widening beyond that seen in other recoveries. Just as in the United States and other developed economies, a sharp slowdown in Chinese growth and a sustained further increase in energy prices represent the primary risks to the outlook.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia