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111. Hizballah, Iran, and the Prospects for a New Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process

Author:
Michael Eisenstadt and Neri Zilber
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The death of Yasser Arafat and the approach of Palestinian elections on January 9 have rekindled hopes for the peace process. However, if history is a guide, Hizballah and Iran—which worked tirelessly to undermine the Oslo Process—will try to sabotage such efforts. (Indeed, Israeli intelligence reports cited in the Israeli press indicate that they are preparing to do so.) Having emerged from the al-Aqsa Intifada as the principal outside actors in Palestinian politics and emboldened by what they see as recent successes, Hizballah and Iran could pose major obstacles to efforts to defuse the conflict and promote Israeli-Palestinian reengagement.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Czech Republic

112. Post-Arafat Transition: Upcoming Palestinian Elections

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As the Palestinians seek to sort out the post-Arafat succession, ostensibly the first order of business is presidential elections. The Palestinian Authority (PA) has said it would hold presidential elections on January 9, 2005. However, making the election successful may require prior commitment to a cease fire, which in turn requires understandings among Palestinian factions accepted by Israel; this would be necessary to ensure peaceful conditions on the ground and the absence of Israeli military interruption during the election itself and the preceding campaign. According to the London-based Arab daily al-sharq al-Awsat, Mahmoud Abbas (a.k.a. Abu Mazen), former Palestinian premier and newly named chairman of the Palestine Liberation Organization drove home this point in two rounds of talks with Palestinian rejectionist groups over the last week. Abu Mazen is quoted as saying, "We need a safe, secure and calm internal situation, so we can hold elections. There is no possibility of holding elections while we are in a state of war and violent struggle. Elections need a secure environment that will allow for it to be done in a free and fair manner. Elections require freedom of movement and transportation to reach the ballot boxes and ensuring the participation of citizens." Indeed, there have been a variety of quotes from rejectionist leaders saying they may be willing to adhere to a unilateral ceasefire, but so far, there has been no definitive word from the main rejectionist group, Hamas. There have been a variety of reports that Hamas would agree to a ceasefire, but it seems that it will only if Israel accepts it as well. Israel may respect a truce brokered by Egypt among the Palestinian factions just as it consented to one during the summer of 2003. At the same time, it will be concerned that its acceptance not be exploited by undisciplined radicals in a way that ties Israel's hands and makes it vulnerable to attack. The last ceasefire fell apart because of differing understandings of its terms among the key protagonists. Unless that lesson is learned another truce is likely to fall apart, too. Another prerequisite for elections is that Abu Mazen needs to receive the nomination of the dominant Fatah party. Abu Mazen's nomination could easily be a formality, since so far, there is no real opposition. Yet, Fatah elections, while recognized by many as necessary, might be resisted by an Old Guard seeking to preserve its power. The issue of Fatah elections has been a dominant motif of the Young Guard. They believe that a combination of elections on all levels will have the cleansing effect of ridding the PA of old cronies of Yasser Arafat, who were beneficiaries of corruption. Moreover, it will inject new blood into a calcified system.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, London, Palestine, and Czech Republic

113. The Role of Civilians in Security and Defence Policy Making - The Case of the Czech Republic

Author:
Marie Vlachová
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
Formal and institutional framework of democratic control of armed forces has been installed in the Czech Republic – roles, responsibilities and powers of security sector institutions/actors are determined by law.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, and Government
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Czech Republic

114. The Professionalisation of the Czech Armed Forces

Author:
Marie Vlachová
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
Throughout modern history, the fate of the Czech nation has always been determined by politicians and not the armed forces. Czech soldiers have seldom fought for "their cause", i.e. one with which they are able to identify fully. The existence of Czechoslovakia's pre-war army, which was supposed to guarantee national sovereignty, was too short-lived, ending unimpressively when the political representation decided to demobilize prior to the country's occupation by the Nazis. The First Republic tradition was not sufficient to overcome widespread anti-military sentiments, which were personified by the infamous Czech literary character known as "Soldier Shweik" - whose origins lie in the Austro-Hungarian Empire. During the Communist era, most people were unable to identify with a fight against imperialism, that was designed by the Communist regime as the main reason for compulsory service in the military. The fact that the army stayed away from the public resistance to the 1968 occupation of Czechoslovakia by Warsaw Pact forces, only exacerbated the common perception that the military was no more than an obedient instrument of the Soviet Union's power politics. Even after the collapse of communism, doubts about the necessity to have an army persisted within Czech society. After November 1989, the armed forces drifted from the public.s and politician.s centre of attention for a short time. However, once it became apparent that the army would not intervene in the political transformation process; both the population and the new political representation shifted their focus towards political, economic, and also social issues.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Czech Republic

115. A Casual View into the Future: Reform of Military Education in the Czech Republic

Author:
Marie Vlachová and Ladislav Halberštát
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
There is no doubt that the security situation in Europe changed dramatically during the last decade. Whilst total war has disappeared from the inventory of security threats, regional wars with devastating consequences for affected countries, are still topical. With ethnic hostility, organised crime and the world-wide terrorism list of non-military threats has become much wider. A widening gap between rich Western countries and their poor neighbours in Eastern and South Eastern Europe represents another serious danger, as well as do uncontrollable corruption in politically and economically weak regimes, the inability of states to protect their borders efficiently against trafficking, smuggling, illegal immigration and weapons proliferation, including weapons of mass destruction. Information warfare which results in serious damage being caused by attacks on the information systems of developed countries represents another relatively new security threat. Expertise in security political decision-making has become very important, and thus in the future, a shortage of competent specialists in governmental and parliamentary structures could affect states' ability to anticipate threats and make an adequate decision.
Topic:
Security, Development, Government, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Europe and Czech Republic

116. How to Help Palestinian Refugees Today

Author:
Scott B. Lasensky
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
The collapse of the Oslo process and ever worsening Israeli-Palestinian violence demonstrate that certain long-held "truths" about the conflict need to be turned on their heads - none more so than the accepted wisdom that the Palestinian refugee problem, long a source of regional instability and a breeding ground for suicide terrorists, can only be addressed as part of a final settlement. Rather than follow a comprehensive agreement, ameliorating the Palestinian refugee problem increasingly looks like a necessary precondition for a permanent Israeli-Palestinian settlement. It might even be required for a meaningful resumption of negotiations.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Czech Republic

117. Special Policy Forum Report: An Arab Liberal Looks at the Post-Saddam Middle East

Author:
Hazem Saghie
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On May 8, 2003, Hazem Saghie addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Saghie has been the editor of the weekly supplement of the London-based daily al-Hayat for the past fifteen years and served fourteen years in Beirut for the Lebanon daily al-Safir. He is currently a visiting fellow at the Institute and editor of The Predicament of the Individual in the Middle East (Saqi Books, 2000). The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, London, Lebanon, Beirut, and Czech Republic

118. Regional Poverty and Income Inequality in Central and Eastern Europe: Evidence from the Luxembourgh Income Study

Author:
Michael Förster, David Jesuit, and Timothy Smeeding
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper reports levels of income inequality and poverty in four Central and Eastern European countries: the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Russia. Unlike many previous researchers who examine transition economies, we aggregate the detailed individual-level income surveys made available through the efforts of the Luxembourg Income Study at the regional level of analysis. Although national-level investigations have contributed much to our understanding of the income distribution dynamics, these studies mask intracountry variance in levels of income inequality and thus may not capture the true distribution of household income and accurately reflect individual wellbeing. Accordingly, we compute summary measures of inequality and relative poverty rates, using both local and national relative poverty lines, for the most recent waves of data available. We offer comparisons between regional and national median incomes and assess levels of inter- and intraregional income inequality. In addition, we make comparisons to regions within Western European countries and find that, contrary to what is often asserted, interregional disparities in Central and Eastern Europe countries are not as large as those found in some Western European countries.
Topic:
Development and Poverty
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe, Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, and Luxembourg

119. Globalization and the Development of Welfare States in Post-Communist Europe

Author:
Mitchell Orenstein and Martine R. Hass
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
How has globalization influenced welfare state development in postcommunist Europe? We focus on the leading East-Central European accession states, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary, and show that these states have experienced radically different welfare state developments since 1989 from their neighbors in the former Soviet Union. The first pa rt of the paper proposes that these divergent paths can be explained by a “Europe effect”. We argue that the effects of globalization have differed greatly, depending on a country's position in the international economy and geopolitical relations. We demonstrate that countries closer to the European Union have used welfare state programs to compensate citizens for the traumas of system transition and economic openness, while the welfare systems in the former Soviet states have collapsed to a far greater extent, in terms of spending and effectivness.
Topic:
Communism, Globalization, and Government
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, Poland, Soviet Union, Hungary, and Czech Republic

120. Monitoring the EU Accession Process: Judicial Independence

Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Open Society Foundations
Abstract:
The EU Accession Monitoring Program of the Open Society Institute was initiated in 2000 to encourage independent monitoring of the process by which the European Union is considering applications for membership from the ten candidate States of Central and Eastern Europe. The Program aims to contribute to this historic process by producing monitoring reports to complement the evaluations already being conducted by the European Commission, as reflected in its annual “Regular Reports” on candidate States’ progress towards meeting accession criteria. The enlargement of the European Union is a positive development, and independent monitoring is one means of magnifying its beneficial effects, both within the candidate States and in the EU itself.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Nation-State
Political Geography:
Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, Bulgaria, Romania, Latvia, Czech Republic, Slovenia, and Slovakia