The UN-led process aimed at negotiating an arms trade treaty (ATT), formally launched in 2006, reached the end of its mandate on 27 July 2012 after a four-week negotiating conference. The conference had been tasked with reaching consensus on an international treaty to establish the 'highest possible common international standards for the transfer of conventional arms'. Such a task was always going to be hard to achieve, but it was widely assumed that there was broad acceptance of a draft treaty text that was circulated on the penultimate day of the conference. However, on the final day the United States declared that the text needed further work and they proposed convening another conference to conclude negotiations. Russia, North Korea, Cuba and Venezuela supported the US position. At the time of writing it is unclear whether the next stage in the ATT process will be a vote on the adoption of the draft treaty text in the General Assembly in December 2012, an additional round of UN negotiations or something else entirely.
JONATHAN BENJAMIN-ALVARADO and GREGORY A. PETROW examine Gallup World Poll data from Cuba to evaluate both the level of Cuban regime approval, as well as its causes. They conclude that Cubans are satisfied overall with their leaders, and that part of this satisfaction stems from equating the regime with the state.
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
Le Political Outlook 2012 de l’Amérique latine est une publication de l’Observatoire politique de
l’Amérique latine et des Caraïbes (Opalc) du CERI-Sciences Po. Il prolonge la démarche du site internet
www.sciencespo.fr/opalc en offrant des clefs de compréhension d’un continent en proie à des
transformations profondes. Des informations complémentaires à cette publication sont disponibles
sur le site.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Markets, Political Economy, Politics, History, Finance, Regional Integration, and Memory
Political Geography:
South America, Cuba, Latin America, Bolivia, and El Salvador
A common assumption is that the Cuban economic elite was universally opposed to the revolutionary government of Fidel Castro from the time it took power in January 1959. But The Sugar King of Havana: The Rise and Fall of Julio Lobo, Cuba's Last Tycoon shows otherwise. In his book, John Paul Rathbone, the Latin America editor at the Financial Times, paints a more nuanced picture of the Cuban bourgeoisie and, in particular, of Julio Lobo (1898–1983)— the great Cuban sugar tycoon of the first half of the twentieth century. Reading like an F. Scott Fitzgerald novel with scenes reminiscent of an Elia Kazan film, the book paints vivid descriptions of Lobo's life and Cuba in general with action on every page.
While traditional theories of legitimacy have focused on the nation-state, authoritarian regimes and democracies alike seek legitimation not only in the domestic realm but also from international sources. This paper argues that the degree to, and the form in, which they do so depend on the regime's origins, characteristics, and evolution, rather than being mere consequences of changes in the international context. Empirically, the paper draws on the case of the Cuban regime since the 1959 revolution. In particular, it analyzes how the regime's transition from a charismatic to a bureaucratic model of state socialism in the post-Fidel succession era led to a reconfiguration in the regime's legitimation strategy, wherein it has greatly downsized its once expansive international dimensions.