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11. Belarus-West Relations: The New Normal

Author:
Dzianis Melyantsou
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Transatlantic Relations
Abstract:
This paper is part of CTR's Working Paper Series: "Eastern Voices: Europe's East Faces an Unsettled West." The new geopolitical environment formed after the annexation of Crimea and the war in the Donbas, together with emerging threats and challenges, are pressing both Belarus and the West to revise their policies in the region as well as their relations with each other. In this new context, Belarus is seeking a more balanced foreign policy and, at least towards the Ukrainian crisis, a more neutral stance.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, War, Territorial Disputes, Foreign Aid, Sanctions, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Belarus, Crimea, United States of America, and European Union

12. Ukraine’s Foreign Policy and the Role of the West

Author:
Olexiy Haran and Petro Burkovskiy
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Transatlantic Relations
Abstract:
This paper is part of CTR's Working Paper Series: "Eastern Voices: Europe's East Faces an Unsettled West." In this chapter, Haran and Burkovskiy begin with a general analysis of mutual perceptions from both sides, then proceed to identify key interests and concerns regarding the war in Donbas, and analyze whether the political aspects of the Minsk agreements can be implemented. They then suggest some recommendations on the way ahead. The authors argue that Putin’s success in attacking Ukraine, which is impossible to achieve without undermining unity among Western powers, could embolden him to exert his power and influence in wider Europe. Moreover, as U.S.-EU ties are likely to undergo some stress after elections on each side of the Atlantic in 2016 and 2017, Russia will to be tempted to take advantage of such turbulence by pressing forward with its goals in Ukraine and pushing the so-called “grey zone” of insecurity westward before a new equilibrium is found within the Euro-Atlantic area.
Topic:
International Relations, NATO, Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, Grand Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, Crimea, United States of America, and European Union

13. What Ukraine Should Demand of Itself and from the West

Author:
Natalie A. Jaresko
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Transatlantic Relations
Abstract:
This paper is part of CTR's Working Paper Series: "Eastern Voices: Europe's East Faces an Unsettled West." Once again, the world is grappling with historic challenges, as it did when the Soviet Union fell in 1991, and once more, Ukraine is at the forefront of these challenges. The Kremlin’s attempts to destroy Ukraine’s European aspirations is simply one of Russia's many challenges to the post-World War II international liberal order. The actions of the Kremlin -- be they in Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, and Syria; in the U.S. electoral process; or in the funding of far-right and far-left political parties throughout Europe -- have but one purpose: to destroy the transatlantic partnership and the principles of the post-World War II order and peace. Ukraine is simply one of the battlegrounds, but it is a key because it is in Europe. Unity of the transatlantic partnership and of the democratic nations is critical. Unity of support for the Ukrainian transition process is a serious part of this battle, because Ukraine’s successful democratic, rule-of-law based transformation is key to ensuring a Europe whole, free and at peace.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Territorial Disputes, Economy, and Protests
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Crimea

14. The Crimean Crisis through the Perspective of Russia-NATO relations

Author:
Richat Sabitov
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
Abstract:
Russian foreign policy and European security is continuing to receive special attention in light of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. An analysis of Russia- NATO relations is necessary to understand Moscow’s behaviour in the so-called “near abroad” – the territory of the former Soviet republics. It is, therefore, important to study Russia’s reaction to Ukrainian aspirations towards Europe and the implications it holds for the Crimean Peninsula’s status
Topic:
International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Crimea

15. The Authoritarian Roots of Russian Expansionism

Author:
Sean Clark
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Security and Development, Dalhousie University
Abstract:
The central contention here is that Russia's outbursts of international hostility are a reflection of the very nature of the Putin regime. They can be explained as the conscious choice of a regime striving to maintain power, decisions conditioned in turn by deep-seated pathologies that limit the Kremlin's room for maneuver. What follows is a discussion of these constraints, as well as consideration how best to deal with them.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, Authoritarianism, and Legitimacy
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, Eastern Europe, and Crimea

16. Making Sense of Hybrid Warfare

Author:
James K. Wither
Publication Date:
03-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
The term hybrid warfare has been widely analyzed by scholars, policymakers and commentators since Russia occupied Crimea in March 2014. The topic has ceased to be a subject only studied by military strate-gists, but has entered the wider policy domain as a significant security challenge for the West. This article seeks to place the debate about hybrid warfare in a broader analytical and historical context and summarizes discussion to date on this and related strategic concepts. The Russian approach to hybrid warfare as demonstrated by operations in Ukraine is a particular focus for discussion.
Topic:
NATO, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, Collective Defense, and Hybrid Warfare
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, North Atlantic, Ukraine, North America, and Crimea

17. Relations Between Russia and Europe: No Simple Solutions in Sight

Author:
S. Karaganov
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The Crisis between Russia and the West is associated with Crimea and Russia’s actions in Donbass and Ukraine; in fact, it has deeper roots while its long-term repercussions might prove to be much graver than expected. a large-scale armed clash cannot be excluded even if this possibility is gradually reducing; we should be ready to political confrontation and contracted economic ties. Today, Europe is facing an even greater threat: a civilizational divorce with Russia.
Topic:
Political Violence, Economics, Armed Struggle, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Crimea

18. A Russian View on Landpower

Author:
Keir Giles and Major General Aleksandr V Rogovoy
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
Russia’s seizure of Crimea, and ongoing operations in eastern Ukraine, have refocused attention on the Russian military as a potential cause for concern in Europe. This Letort Paper, by an influential Russian general and military academic, lays out specifically Russian views on the essential nature of strong conventional land forces, and how they may be used. With an expert commentary providing essential context and interpretation, the Paper presents a valuable insight into Russian military thinking, at a potentially critical juncture for European security.
Topic:
Security, War, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Crimea

19. Project 1704: A U.S. Army War College Analysis of Russian Strategy in Eastern Europe, an Appropriate U.S. Response, and the Implications for U.S. Landpower

Author:
Col. Douglas Mastriano
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
The strategic calculus changed in Europe with the 2014 Russian seizure of Crimea and its ongoing war against Ukraine. Compounding the dilemma of an aggressive Russia, is the application of ambiguity to create a clock of uncertainty that prevents a decisive response to counter its destabilizing activities. However, this application of ambiguity is easily defeated, if nations are willing to take concerted efforts now to preempt and deter further Russian aggression. Project 1704 provides an honest assessment of the tenuous strategic environment that now envelopes Eastern Europe and offers specific recommendations on how to continue the 70 years of unparalleled peace that most of Europe has enjoyed.
Topic:
Politics, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Crimea

20. The Crimean conundrum: What has happened and what to expect in the future

Author:
Oleksandr Fisun
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
The Russian annexation of the Crimean peninsula represents a radical transformation of the system of international security on the European continent and in the wider context of the postwar “Yalta system” of interstate boundaries and their guarantees by major international players. The most important takeaway is that for the first time since World War II, one of the founders of the Yalta system of international boundaries has considered it within the realm of possibility to revisit its provisions by directly augmenting its own territory. This paper aims to analyze the outcomes of Russia’s annexation of Crimea, the features of the newly formed regional political regime in Crimea, the role of Crimea in contemporary Ukrainian politics, as well as to present scenarios for the development of the geopolitical situation surrounding the “Crimean issue” in the context of the possible actions that primary geopolitical players may take.
Topic:
International Relations, International Organization, International Security, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Crimea