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1. The Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Current Situation, Consequences, Prospects

Author:
Valeriya Klymenko and Hanna Pashkova
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
On 27 January 2015 the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine adopted the Resolution “On the Appeal of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine to the United Nations, European Parliament, Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, NATO Parliamentary Assembly, OSCE Parliamentary Assembly, GUAM Parliamentary Assembly and national parliaments of the countries of the world on the recognition of the Russian Federation as an aggressor state”. It is stated in the document that “Ukraine remains the target of military aggression by the Russian Federation, which the latter carries out, among other things, by supporting, and providing supplies for large-scale terrorist attacks. … taking into account the provisions of the UN Charter and UN General Assembly Resolution 3314 ‘Definition of Aggression’ dated 14 December 1974, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine recognises the Russian Federation as an Aggressor State…”.1 This Appeal defines the current situation and character of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, the reason and source for which is Russia’s expansionist policy in the post-Soviet area, which the Russian Federation, represented by its current leadership, considers its “zone of privileged interests”. This forms the basis for Russia’s hard pressure on Ukraine to integrate into Eurasian alliances under the auspices of the Russian Federation (RF), and blocking Kyiv’s course towards European and Euro-Atlantic integration. Such policy, as implemented by Russia since the beginning of 2000, did not involve establishing real partner relations between Moscow and Kyiv on the basis of parity and equality, – its goal was to turn Ukraine into a controlled state, which would operate in the framework of Russia’s policy. Russia’s geopolitical plans regarding Ukraine were ruined in February 2014. In return, Putin’s regime resorted to outright aggression against Ukraine – in March 2014 Crimea was annexed, later began the military expansion in Eastern Ukraine. This “undeclared” or “hybrid” war of Russia against Ukraine has now lasted for almost a year; during this war Ukraine has suffered large-scale human, territorial and economic losses. A critical outcome of this war is mutual estrangement of both countries’ societies. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is not a “local”, “peripheral” event, – it has regional and global dimension, and contains challenges and threats to the global security system. Annexation of Crimea, the situation in Eastern Ukraine are turning into a large-scale “frozen conflict”, which is a threat to security and stability not only on the European continent, but in the world at large. Leading Western countries and international organisations have not recognised the annexation of Crimea, thus, demonstrating political and diplomatic solidarity with Ukraine; have supported Ukraine in its battle against Russian aggression in Donbas. Ukraine has received considerable external financial and material-technical support. “Restraining” sanctions against Russia have been implemented. Currently, Ukraine is in the epicentre of critical West-Russia confrontation, which is characterised by an unprecedented loss of mutual trust. Ukraine-Russia relations are in a critical and unpredictable state. The political and diplomatic confrontation is ongoing; fundamental agreements and arrangements have been violated; the system of institutional interstate relations has been practically shattered; confrontation in the sphere of economy and energy sector is exacerbating, informational aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine continues. In general, current events give no reason to expect changes for the better in Russia’s policy towards Ukraine in the foreseeable future. Thus, the current state of Kyiv-Moscow relations demands creating fundamentally different conceptual and strategic approaches to co-existence with Putin’s Russia, a review of international contacts system, introduction of specific measures towards Russia.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Crimea

2. Topical problems in social relations in the AR of Crimea

Author:
Maryna Melnyk
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
The AR of Crimea is a special region of Ukraine, not only because of its autonomous status, but also thanks to its unique historic and cultural heritage, ethnic composition of the population, geopolitical situation. It may be said without exaggeration that the ability to integrate Crimea into the pan-Ukrainian political and socio-cultural space presents a key test of maturity and effectiveness of the Ukrainian state. This determines the extreme importance of Crimean segment in the Ukrainian policy. But unfortunately, there are no grounds to claim serious success in that domain; rather, things are developing in the opposite direction. It may be stated that the socio-political situation in the AR of Crimea, after the relative stability of late 1990s – early 2000s, has deteriorated lately. In the result of serious political contradictions, deregulation of the executive branch, lack of system and consistency in the Ukrainian state policy regarding Crimea, interaction between the republican and central authorities in some sectors is far from standards of constructive cooperation, which leads to continual nonexecution or even open obstruction of decisions of the central authorities dealing with Crimea. This brings to light drawbacks in the effective legislation describing the rights and powers of the AR of Crimea, regimenting the autonomy’s relations with Kyiv, presentation and defence of its interests in the supreme bodies of state power. Meanwhile, radical, first of all – pro-Russian public and political forces stepped up their activity in Crimea, manifested, in particular, in stronger opposition to actions of the state authorities aimed at rapprochement with Euro-Atlantic structures, and in moral support for Russia and its Black Sea Fleet during the armed conflict with Georgia in August 2008. The problems of amenities for and social rehabilitation of repatriates, first of all – representatives of Crimean Tatars, are far from final solution. Despite the deep study of those problems by the Ukrainian authorities and representative bodies of the Crimean Tatar people, full mutual understanding between its political leadership and the state authorities in the issues of restoration of economic, social, cultural and political rights of the Crimean Tatar people, definition of its place in Ukraine’s legal framework and its state system is still absent. Given the evident deficiency of means of protection of collective interests available to Crimean Tatars, this undermines trust in the authorities, both Ukrainian and Crimean, and deteriorates inter-ethnic relations in Crimea. The absence of strategic approaches of the Ukrainian authorities to comprehensive solution of Crimean problems, prevalence of the policy of situational response to separate problems or their neglect have an effect on the public consciousness of the Crimean residents in the form of growth of separatist and irredentist spirits, unpopularity of the prospects of further development of Crimea within the constitutional framework of Ukraine. External influences on the situation in the AR of Crimea in economic, political, religious and information sectors are growing. Not all of them may be termed negative, but many of them are designed to entirely cut Crimea from Ukrainian political and socio-cultural space or to make the latter a factor of political and cultural disintegration of the Ukrainian society and state. Against that background, Crimean society witnesses processes of transformation, in particular, consolidation of the main ethnic groups by socio-cultural features, growth of competition among them in the political, socioeconomic and symbolic domains. Evolution of relations among the most numerous Crimean socio-cultural communities towards aggravation of contradictions will threaten the socio-political stability of not only Crimea but Ukraine as a whole, give a pretext for interference of outside forces in its internal affairs, moreover, given the precedents of implementation of similar political scenarios. Study of the situation in the AR of Crimea, identification of factors influencing it and search of ways of the most optimal solution of the existing problems are all covered by the Ukrainian-Swiss project “Socio-political, inter-ethnic and inter-confessional relations in Crimea –state, problems, ways of solution”, jointly implemented by Razumkov Centre and University of Basel’s Europainstitut.
Topic:
Demographics, Culture, Autonomy, and Identity
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Crimea