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431. Colombia at the Crossroads

Author:
Aleksandar D. Jovovic
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Abstract:
The Institute for the Study of Diplomacy hosted the spring session of the Schlesinger Working Group on the topic of strategic surprise in Colombia. After a presentation on four potential scenarios that may face Colombia (see next page), Schlesinger Working Group core members and Colombia specialists examined the key factors driving events in this conflict-scarred country, as well as possible outcomes for current political initiatives. Among other issues, the participants touched on the range and dynamics of the present conflict, its effects on Colombian institutions, the country's neighbors, as well as on the role of powerful outside players, primarily the United States. Upon defining these key factors, participants identified a broad outline for future policy towards Colombia, which would safeguard key U.S. interests, defined as an end to the conflict, political and economic stability in the region, and the suppression of the drug trade. The following report is based on the informal and general findings of the group and is therefore not a consensus document.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Colombia, South America, and Latin America

432. CIAO: United States — 'Plan Colombia'

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
11-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Congressional criticism of 'Plan Colombia's' military component, and the advent of a new administration in Washington, are likely to lead to a strategic review of US policy. The outcome may be a policy that is less military focused, more regionally oriented, and based on closer cooperation with other aid donors. It has become increasingly clear that Plan Colombia can only be implemented if the EU and its member states are prepared to increase their financial contribution. This will give the Europeans considerable leverage, and they are likely to use it to insist on a less militarised approach. However, even with a change in policy emphasis, the prospects of success will remain poor.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Washington, and Colombia

433. Colombia Alert: U.S. Counternarcotics Policy Toward Colombia

Author:
Myles Frechette
Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
More than 80 percent of the cocaine in the United States comes from Colombia. Substantial amounts of the heroin seized in the United States are also from Colombia. For the United States the impact of illegal drugs is devastating, not only in terms of human misery and lives lost, but also the billions it costs to combat this illegal trade; house the prison population of drug offenders; to provide health care to drug users; and sustain the loss of productivity in the economy. One estimate puts the dollar cost at $100 billion a year. This is a staggering amount, even in an $8 trillion economy. The cost to Colombia, however, is disproportionately higher. Consider the corruption and economic distortion $5 billion of illicit profits causes in Colombia, whose GDP is about $90 billion.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Civil Society, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, Colombia, South America, and Latin America