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5071. Global Economic Governance at a Crossroads: Replacing the G-7 with the G-20

Author:
Johannes F. Linn and Colin I. Jr. Bradford
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Finance ministers representing the Group of 7 (G-7) industrialized countries met in Boca Raton, Florida, in early February amid concerns about the weakening of the U.S. dollar. One factor in the dollar's decline is the U.S. trade deficit, which is partly due to the undervalued Chinese yuan. The involvement of China, which is not a G-7 member, illustrates both the glaring gap in global governance and the increasing economic and policy interdependence between industrial countries and major emerging market economies (EMEs). As one observer, referring to the Boca Raton meeting, put it, "China is the 800-pound gorilla and it isn't even part of the negotiations."
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States and China

5072. Deterring Conflict in the Taiwan Strait: The Successes and Failures of Taiwan's Defense Reform and Modernization Program

Author:
Micheal D. Swaine
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
THE TAIWAN STRAIT IS ONE OF THE TWO PLACES in the Asian Pacific where a major war could break out; the other place is the Korean Peninsula. For over fifty years, the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the Republic of China (ROC, or Taiwan) have maintained an uneasy peace across the Strait, punctuated by brief periods of limited conflict or by occasional military displays. The PRC insists that Taiwan is a part of China and asserts that the island must one day be reunited with the mainland. Until the early 1990s, the ROC government also viewed Taiwan as an integral part of China and insisted on eventual reunification, albeit under the Chinese Nationalist flag. But in recent years, with democratization opening the system to native Taiwanese, public support for independence has grown, as has the alarm in Beijing. As tensions have grown and the prospect of the resumption of a cross-Strait understanding regarding Taiwan's status has become more remote, stability has depended primarily on military deterrence. For China, such deterrence aims to prevent the final consolidation of Taiwan's separate status. For Taiwan (and the United States), it aims at preventing China from using force to compel reunification on Beijing's terms.
Topic:
Security and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, China, Taiwan, Beijing, and Asia

5073. Assessing America's War on Terror: Confronting Insurgency, Cementing Primacy

Author:
Ashley J. Tellis
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
During the 1990s the United States and its allies enjoyed a much sought-after period of prosperity and tranquility following the end of the Cold War. In hindsight, however, it is now apparent that Al Qaeda, a fiercely anti-American global terrorist network, was taking root in over sixty countries during this period, culminating in the devastating September 11 attacks on New York and Washington, D.C. The Bush administration, which had entered office determined to secure U.S. primacy amid the emergence of major power centers in Asia, such as China, soon found itself forced to confront a worldwide Islamist insurgency. This study analyzes the relevance of terrorist groups as substatal actors in international politics, their influence on deeper dynamics of the international system, and the challenges facing the United States posed by transnational terrorist organizations. It argues that international terrorism, although currently salient, does not necessarily replace or even alter the traditional concerns of international politics, but rather subsists among them. On balance, the United States has managed these interlocking challenges with partial success, and needs to pay greater attention to pursuing the legitimacy and protecting the economic foundations of its power. Failing to do so, or waging a poorly defined “war against all,” carries the risk of far-reaching economic and political reverberations that may, in the not-too-distant future, enervate the United States, undermine its legitimacy as the sole superpower, and gradually erode continued American dominance in the world order.
Topic:
Terrorism and War
Political Geography:
United States, China, New York, Washington, Middle East, and Asia

5074. President Bush's Muddled Policy on Taiwan

Author:
Ted Galen Carpenter
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The Bush administration has gone from one extreme to the other with regard to U.S. policy on Taiwan. During the early months of his administration, the president gave a seemingly unconditional pledge to defend Taiwan from attack by mainland China—going significantly further than his predecessors had. He followed that assurance by approving the largest arms sales package to Taiwan in nearly a decade. In marked contrast to the Clinton years, high-profile visits by Taiwanese leaders to the United States have been encouraged, despite Beijing's protests.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

5075. Taiwan Strait IV: How an Ultimate Political Settlement Might Look

Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Each side's most preferred solution for resolving the continuing Taiwan Strait issue – in the case of Taipei, widely recognised de jure independence; and in the case of Beijing, reunification of China on the same 'one country, two systems' basis as Hong Kong – are both non-starters. Neither society is likely to accommodate the other or change to the degree necessary to make either option realistically achievable, even ten or fifteen years down the road. If the risk of conflict across the Taiwan Strait – too serious to be accepted with equanimity, as the tensions of the last few months have shown – is to be reduced, then there has to be new thinking about what an ultimate political settlement might look like, and how to get there.
Topic:
Government, Politics, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
China, Israel, Taiwan, Beijing, East Asia, and Hong Kong

5076. Energy insecurity: China, India and Middle East oil

Author:
Anthony Bubalo and Mark P Thirlwell
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The rapid expansion of their economies has seen China and India become voracious consumers of energy. Oil, much of it imported from the Middle East, has become an increasingly important part of their energy needs. Both governments are conscious that this growing reliance on one of the world's most unstable regions leaves their countries vulnerable to supply disruptions and/or price fluctuations. As a result, energy security has become a key foreign policy objective and, particularly in the case of China, is shaping their approach to the Middle East. This issues brief provides an overview of current energy demand trends and raises for discussion some of the potential longer term strategic implications of this growing dependence on Mid-East oil.
Topic:
Energy Policy
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, India, and Asia

5077. River at risk: the Mekong and the Water Politics of China and Southeast Asia

Author:
Milton Osborne
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
By the middle of March 2004 there was growing concern in Thailand, Laos and Cambodia about the level of the Mekong River. Poor rains in the wet season of 2003 and a subsequent protracted dry period appeared to be largely to blame for the sharply lower level of water in the Mekong by comparison with 'normal' years. But the unusually dry season may not have been the only factor at work. Officials in Thailand have claimed that Chinese authorities have endeavoured to limit the flow of water out of the dams already built on the Mekong in China's Yunnan province, as they undertake new dam construction and continue work to clear the river of obstacles to navigation. At the same time, Thai officials suggest that unusual volatility in the river's flow reflects the manner in which China has been closing its dam gates. Gates are closed for three days, before opening them for one day to allow Chinese cargo vessels to travel to and from river ports in the southern Yunnan province and northern Thailand.
Topic:
Environment, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
China, Cambodia, Thailand, and Southeast Asia

5078. The Beijing 2008 Olympic Games: China in the limelight

Author:
John Bowan
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Beijing's successful bid for the 2008 Olympic Games gives China a unique opportunity to signal its emergence as a leading player in the mainstream of international affairs. The Games will provide a unique opportunity to showcase to the international public, as well as to foreign governments and international business, China's technical and organisational capabilities, its cultural and social achievements, and its standing and potential as a global economic power and partner. The ongoing strong commitment to the Games by the national Government, and the rapid and efficient progress made to date by the Beijing Olympic organisers, are impressive; from a technical point of view, China's challenging Olympic project is on track. The Games will make some limited contribution to the extraordinary economic and technological development China is making, particularly in environmental protection. Similarly, the Games have the potential to make some incremental contribution to improving human rights in China. Their significance as a force for change in this area should not be overestimated, however, and the evidence is that the Olympic influence on China's human rights has so far been limited. Despite the good cooperation at the Olympic level that has developed between China and Taiwan in recent years, the hosting of the Games would not stand in the way of drastic action by China if Taiwan pursued independence beyond the limits of its tolerance. Australia's cooperative Olympic links with China, developed during Beijing's bid, add a valuable dimension to the strong and important relationship between the two countries.
Topic:
International Relations, Civil Society, and Development
Political Geography:
China and Asia

5079. What Kind of Landing for the Chinese Economy?

Author:
Nicholas R. Lardy and Morris Goldstein
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Rarely has the outlook for the Chinese economy been so contested. The financial press widely quotes three alternative perspectives on the short-and medium-term outlook. One school argues that the Chinese government's recent efforts to rein in overly rapid growth are working and that the economy is now on a glide path to what is referred to as a soft landing. While “soft landing” is usually not fully defined, its chief feature in this case is that Chinese economic growth slows modestly from its current pace of 9 to 10 percent to around 8 percent and that the rate of job creation does not slow enough to constitute a major political challenge for the regime. At the other end of the spectrum is the hard landing school, which argues that the authorities to date have not tightened sufficiently, that loan and investment growth remain excessive, and that the authorities soon will be forced to take more drastic action that will trigger a sharp correction. Finally, the no landing school argues that China's efforts to slow growth modestly are misguided since the economy was not overheating in 2003 and early 2004. In this view, China is in the early stages of a secular boom that has several additional years to run.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China and Asia

5080. China Bashing 2004

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Yee Wong
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
On April 26, 2004, Senator John Kerry released his six-point trade pro - gram, “Trade Enforcement: Asleep at the Wheel,” and conspicuously targeted China for violating worker rights, dumping, and supporting “illegal currency manipulation” (Kerry 2004). Five days earlier, senior Bush administration officials met with Chinese Vice Premier Wu Yi to settle a few trade disputes (e.g., WiFi) but did not resolve the most contentious ones (exchange rates, semiconductors, and labor rights).
Topic:
Development, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia